Storms and Convective discussion - July 2023

[ANYWEATHER]

My best advice for the weekend if you want to know if you’re going to get a storm or three , is like me use the fantastic tool called the Rainfall Radar️

[ChezWeather]

UKV showing two rounds of storms moving NE for tomorrow 

 

Edited July 7, 2023 by ChezWeather

[Paul]

Just in - @Nick F's detailed look at the storm risk this weekend:

Warnings for thunderstorms on Saturday marking an end to a brief visit of heat and humidity

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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A detailed look at a brief plume of heat and humidity today followed by a thundery breakdown on Saturday, with warnings now issued for thunderstorms tomorrow.

 

[Thunders]

3 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

Not for me then? Perfect, no Met Office qthunderstorm warning curse. P.s.

Here's the Swiss models, just focusing on where I live because Im biased;

Still hopeful that me might see something

[alexisj9]

4 hours ago, ChannelThunder said:

No update from Dan, so guess that confirms tonight is not happening, not that it's looked good since about Monday. What is it with this year and the complete absence of imports? And the wider decline over the last few years...

 

Tbh we had quite a long spell before 2015 where they didn't happen much, then all of a sudden we've had quite a few. Might just be another quiet year. It's not unheard of, I just wish the heat pump wouldn't turn on without a good storm happening too.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

4 hours ago, ChannelThunder said:

No update from Dan, so guess that confirms tonight is not happening, not that it's looked good since about Monday. What is it with this year and the complete absence of imports? And the wider decline over the last few years...

 

It’s not really an overnight thing, more a dawn event (if it happens) so I wouldn’t be too disheartened, considering there’s no forecast issues for anywhere else yet either

My optimism is still moderate

[WeatherArc]

Tomorrow's event is completely dependent on the cloud cover from that front, the problem is that models are awful with cloud coverage. Gonna have to wait and see what the satellite and surface temps look like tmrw morning.

[Mapantz]

Could have some thunder embedded, or it could just be thundery rain.

[Guest]

30 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Could have some thunder embedded, or it could just be thundery rain.

It’s such a bad time for storms, not sure I can ever remember an active storm at 7am-ish, look at all the forecast cloud too. 

[Azazel]

9 minutes ago, Alderc said:

It’s such a bad time for storms, not sure I can ever remember an active storm at 7am-ish, look at all the forecast cloud too. 

I know I shouldn't complain if it DOES come off because well, we've had nothing here this summer, but it's genuinely the worst time of day for storm watching.

I won't be getting up early to look at a blanket of white with the odd rumble - unless it wakes me up.

[Eagle Eye]

11 minutes ago, Alderc said:

It’s such a bad time for storms, not sure I can ever remember an active storm at 7am-ish, look at all the forecast cloud too. 

I can. 2 years ago but that was the only one I can remember and there had been a storm a few hours before that one as well. Very much dependant on timing of the Theta-W quick advection as to initiation.  This could go either way.

[Dorsetbred]

13 minutes ago, Alderc said:

It’s such a bad time for storms, not sure I can ever remember an active storm at 7am-ish, look at all the forecast cloud too. 

Yup it’s been a drought as far as storms are concerned, even decent thundery outbreaks are lacking down here.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

46 minutes ago, WeatherArc said:

Tomorrow's event is completely dependent on the cloud cover from that front, the problem is that models are awful with cloud coverage. Gonna have to wait and see what the satellite and surface temps look like tmrw morning.

I’m thinking that the further south it is, then the earlier it is and the less dependant it will be on heating

[alexisj9]

Just now, Eagle Eye said:

I can. 2 years ago but that was the only one I can remember and there had been a storm a few hours before that one as well. Very much dependant on timing of the Theta-W quick advection as to initiation.  This could go either way.

Yep probably the same storm, very active storm for that time of the morning.

[Eagle Eye]

It's still on July and given the SST's, we'll probably go on till October just like last year. We just need a bit of luck.

[cheese]

15 minutes ago, Alderc said:

It’s such a bad time for storms, not sure I can ever remember an active storm at 7am-ish, look at all the forecast cloud too. 

I’ve seen a few storms here around that time. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

How is MUCAPE looking at 4am along the coast?

[Azazel]

Just now, Eagle Eye said:

It's still on July and given the SST's, we'll probably go on till October just like last year. We just need a bit of luck.

I got my two best storms in October and November last year which is unusual - I'm guessing it was because of the hot summer and high SSTs meeting all that colder air making its way south.

If things continue how they are, this will be the third summer in a row without a direct hit - and 2020 only had one direct hit right at the end of August so it could've been 4 really.

2019 was the last big plume event here - July. Got so excited when it came overhead, I panicked and locked myself out of my car.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Just now, Azazel said:

I got my two best storms in October and November last year which is unusual - I'm guessing it was because of the hot summer and high SSTs meeting all that colder air making its way south.

If things continue how they are, this will be the third summer in a row without a direct hit - and 2020 only had one direct hit right at the end of August so it could've been 4 really.

2019 was the last big plume event here - July. Got so excited when it came overhead, I panicked and locked myself out of my car.

[MP-R]

I’ve seen many a decent early morning / daybreak storm here over the years… less so recently though.

I just don’t want tomorrow to a) deliver sod all thundery activity then b) stay cloudy when it should be sunny!

[Mapantz]

19 minutes ago, Alderc said:

not sure I can ever remember an active storm at 7am-ish, look at all the forecast cloud too. 

June 20th, this year.  5:30am - ish

[Dorsetbred]

1 minute ago, Azazel said:

I got my two best storms in October and November last year which is unusual - I'm guessing it was because of the hot summer and high SSTs meeting all that colder air making its way south.

If things continue how they are, this will be the third summer in a row without a direct hit - and 2020 only had one direct hit right at the end of August so it could've been 4 really.

2019 was the last big plume event here - July. Got so excited when it came overhead, I panicked and locked myself out of my car.

This year it’s a struggle to even get a decent plume over this area, most seem to go either side of us, not good.

[The Tall Weatherman]

2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

How is MUCAPE looking at 4am along the coast?

Very meagre but would not be surprised if it became electric at some point.

[Azazel]

1 minute ago, Dorsetbred said:

This year it’s a struggle to even get a decent plume over this area, most seem to go either side of us, not good.

Yeah, they really do seem to be a bit rarer than the renaissance period of 2013-2019.

[Dorsetbred]

As expected the yellow warning from the MtO is hundreds of miles away from us in the south coast. The inbound front looks to use the latent heat to m the eas coast to its advantage.