Storms and Convective discussion - July 2023

[UncleSlim]

You're not wrong there. Eire and the western coasts of the UK have seen more storms than areas such as the Midlands, and the far South-East so far this year

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

2 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

A few timelapses from yesterday. Ignore that I forgot to turn it into mute and you're hearing bird noises at like 20 times the speed.

 

   

 

 

Be honest - it’s you kissing the camera

[Arnie Pie]

Just a quick question

On the UKV model graphics for Cloud Cover

What is the colour of the clouds, Black or White?

Edit; something seems to be strengthening and heading our way from Ludlow 

Edited July 4, 2023 by Arnie Pie

[Thunders]

2 hours ago, UncleSlim said:

You're not wrong there. Eire and the western coasts of the UK have seen more storms than areas such as the Midlands, and the far South-East so far this year

Yeah, I can agree. I’m hoping there’s a flip for late July to early September

[Thunders]

This storm affecting New York metropolitan area will hamper any Independence Day celebrations

[ChannelThunder]

54 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:

Just a quick question

On the UKV model graphics for Cloud Cover

What is the colour of the clouds, Black or White?

Edit; something seems to be strengthening and heading our way from Ludlow 

There's a key at the side, denoting percentage of cloud cover, with the darkest shade being full/thick cloud cover. Basically, think of it like the opposite of a satellite image, this time the intense white is clear skies, not cloud, and vice versa!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

23 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:

There's a key at the side, denoting percentage of cloud cover, with the darkest shade being full/thick cloud cover. Basically, think of it like the opposite of a satellite image, this time the intense white is clear skies, not cloud, and vice versa!

I’ve ALWAYS found this confusing

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Ommy nus!!!

[Eagle Eye]

Interesting UKV run again.

[LIGHTNING ACTION]

watching dark clouds and rain down south of York, looks interesting but no thunder or anything like that

[LIGHTNING ACTION]

also uploading the video of the storm on June 25th

[AndyFromDonny]

Some cracking showers passing by with impressive rain shafts etc.  No thunder but looks dramatic if nothing else.

[Supacell]

A small storm between Alsager and Crewe moving slowly this way. I'm not expecting it to reach here but nice to have something to watch.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Seeing talk of storms in the north again on Saturday… and guess what? Nothing but REALLY HOT HUMID conditions in the south

I like warm evenings and all that but where are the storms? I mean… WHERE ARE THE STORMS?

 

once more: WHEREARETHESTORMS?!

[Turquoise]

a few rumbles here in Congleton, no rain as of yet....no lightning seen either. Sky looks a beautiful mix of orange, pink and purple. Quite incredible.

[Rush2019]

Had a few rumbles of thunder just now from a cell to my west, looks dramatic in the setting sun light.  Now have heavy rain.

[Azazel]

1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Seeing talk of storms in the north again on Saturday… and guess what? Nothing but REALLY HOT HUMID conditions in the south

I like warm evenings and all that but where are the storms? I mean… WHERE ARE THE STORMS?

 

once more: WHEREARETHESTORMS?!

I’m seeing a small chance for me here on Saturday morning at like 8am which is the worst time for storms (elevated ones) - just a slab of grey with the odd flash and rumble - but I suppose beggars can’t be choosers 

[TJS1998Tom]

Lincoln looks promising for Saturday, would be perfect timing for getting back from my holiday 

[A Face like Thunder]

As Turquoise has said, a beautiful mix of cloud colour here in this part of Cheshire and rumbles of thunder but no rain

[Ben Sainsbury]

Some impressive atmospheric profiles being modelled for Saturday, though I can't help but feel like it's very similar to what we had two weekends ago. That saying, I think already at this stage, somewhere is likely to see some active thunderstorms.

[Metwatch]

 

Nice surprise storms in Cheshire captured by Alex again this evening.

[Cheshire Freeze]

9 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

 

Nice surprise storms in Cheshire captured by Alex again this evening.

Yes saw some nice lightning here in Crewe

[matt111]

Lightning amongst the heavier rain moving along the coast. Typically it started after it passed here.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Next week it looks like Ireland could get some much-needed storms (the remaining bits of Ireland that haven’t already been singed by lightning)

it also looks like chances are improving for Saturday further south

Edited July 5, 2023 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

ICON:

GFS:

 

ICON always seems very keen to electrify everything, so a middle-ground between these two is probably nearer the mark

Either way it looks like the possibility of an overnight storm is dead-in-the-water - except for maybe Exeter through to Bournemouth, where initiation could possibly occur just before dawn.

There’s also the sobering possibility that too much capping could scupper development, and I’m wondering if this is another case of early weak thunderstorms stopping play, similar to a couple of weeks ago