Storms and Convective discussion - July 2023

[The Tall Weatherman]

The ESSL came out with a corker of a risk for Saturday afternoon 3 days before the event. High risk of thunderstorms with Large hail seem likely

https://www.stormforecast.eu

[It's a Philcast]

Had some UFO clouds here this evening.. anyone else?

[Arnie Pie]

10 minutes ago, It's a Philcast said:

Had some UFO clouds here this evening.. anyone else?

Yes Phil plenty around here for the last hour or so

[Woollymummy]

On 03/07/2023 at 15:05, Windblade said:

Sorry to be that guy but there's no such thing as a "mini tornado" only a tornado. Did you see any rotation when it swept past? Be interesting to see if there was anything.

I was too far from the A 40 to see the ground, but the underneath of the cloud was being pulled down into points. I saw similar formations before, multiple eddies. We have had a v small tornado cross through our garden one it’s way to Oxford once, knocked a bit of our giant conifer down, as well as a couple of friends’ damage in a straight line in the direction the squall was moving. We missed it but got back to find the wrecked tree. These clouds looked similar.

[matty40s]

23 minutes ago, It's a Philcast said:

Had some UFO clouds here this evening.. anyone else?

You think they are clouds.....??

[*Stormforce~beka*]

36 minutes ago, It's a Philcast said:

Had some UFO clouds here this evening.. anyone else?

Yes I did actually! Thought I was going mad. What are they?

[Azazel]

12 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Yes I did actually! Thought I was going mad. What are they?

Lenticulars:)

[*Stormforce~beka*]

9 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Lenticulars:)

What makes them so tiny?

[It's a Philcast]

These lenticulars kept disappearing and more kept coming back..bizarre stuff. What causes them?

[matty40s]

11.05pm...

[Mizzle]

Nice little explainer of lenticular clouds from the Met Office.

My parents used to live in Gibraltar and the rock regularly had a lenticular cloud sitting above it. Was very odd sometimes being in the shade of it on the beach and then bathing in summery heat and sunshine when swimming a little way out in the sea.

 

Lenticular clouds

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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These lens-shaped orographic wave clouds form when the air is stable and winds blow across hills and mountains from the same or similar direction at different heights...

 

[Eagle Eye]

He's getting ready for my storm pictures I'm going to get tomorrow.

[Windblade]

16 hours ago, Thunders said:

As long as I can remember I’ve loved them. Before 2017, I just kinda said nice but now I will track radar to seek them out, sadly can’t drive yet, im a few years away from a drivers license 

Funnily enough I started storm chasing on a de-restricted moped! Absolutely true. I saw some fantastic storms back then (late 90's/early 00's).

[Windblade]

10 hours ago, Woollymummy said:

I was too far from the A 40 to see the ground, but the underneath of the cloud was being pulled down into points. I saw similar formations before, multiple eddies. We have had a v small tornado cross through our garden one it’s way to Oxford once, knocked a bit of our giant conifer down, as well as a couple of friends’ damage in a straight line in the direction the squall was moving. We missed it but got back to find the wrecked tree. These clouds looked similar.

Yeah, sounds Tornadic from what you describe. Would be good to see if any passers by got any pictures so we can confirm. I'm still waiting to see my first uk Tornado. Had a few close ones (cones/funnels) but nothing that touched down yet. 

[ChannelThunder]

No update from Dan, so guess that confirms tonight is not happening, not that it's looked good since about Monday. What is it with this year and the complete absence of imports? And the wider decline over the last few years...

 

[Thunders]

6 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:

No update from Dan, so guess that confirms tonight is not happening, not that it's looked good since about Monday. What is it with this year and the complete absence of imports? And the wider decline over the last few years...

 

Idk,  I’ve noticed the decline in imports too, a few weeks ago, I had a pretty big import from north of France

Edited July 7, 2023 by Thunders

[Thunders]

What time are the storms supposed to form, if any?

[Harry]

32 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:

No update from Dan, so guess that confirms tonight is not happening, not that it's looked good since about Monday. What is it with this year and the complete absence of imports? And the wider decline over the last few years...

 

I think Dan has been unable to post forecasts this past week. It doesn’t mean there isn’t a risk. UKV still going strong for storms to move in through the morning across southern parts, eventually weakening as they move north (ie my area). Further storms then look likely to develop from EA northwards (of course) with the SE under yet another well capped sod all scenario

[Eagle Eye]

19 minutes ago, Harry said:

I think Dan has been unable to post forecasts this past week. It doesn’t mean there isn’t a risk. UKV still going strong for storms to move in through the morning across southern parts, eventually weakening as they move north (ie my area). Further storms then look likely to develop from EA northwards (of course) with the SE under yet another well capped sod all scenario

Look at the Swiss EZ4 and 4X4 models for some joy . Seems that late evening may be our time. Or maybe in early afternoon.

Edited July 7, 2023 by Eagle Eye

[Harry]

3 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Look at the Swiss EZ4 and 4X4 models for some joy . Seems that late evening may be our time.

Where do you access those charts @Eagle Eye?

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, Harry said:

Where do you access those charts @Eagle Eye?

Meteologix. They've been the best performing over the last year.

[Harry]

Met Office have issued thunderstorm warnings today for NI and then tomorrow from London northwards

[Dangerous55019]

Morning everyone.

The U.K. Meto have just issued not one but two yellow thunderstorm warnings! 
 

The first one today covers Northern Ireland, and the second one is for tomorrow. 
 

We all know how fickle storms can be, and I’m just on the edge of tomorrows warning, but fingers crossed on this for us all.

[Eagle Eye]

Just now, Harry said:

Met Office have issued thunderstorm warnings today for NI and then tomorrow from London northwards

Not for me then? Perfect, no Met Office qthunderstorm warning curse. P.s.

Here's the Swiss models, just focusing on where I live because Im biased;

[CoventryWeather]

For those on the south coast worrying about imports, I would keep an eye on any showers that develop over Rennes and other parts of northern France. The Arome suggests some of these will cross the channel into the early/later part of the night. The UKV seems less interested but I feel the risk is there. Channel has been quite warm recently too so the surface based showers should enter.