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Storms and Convective discussion - July 2023

Supacell

By Supacell
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Thunders Community Regular

Thunders

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill home, school Eastbourne
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, hurricanes, and my favourite tornadoes
  • Location: Bexhill home, school Eastbourne
Posted
32 minutes ago, Alderc said:

It’s such a bad time for storms, not sure I can ever remember an active storm at 7am-ish, look at all the forecast cloud too. 

June 19 2019, august 19 2022

I can start to see clouds forming in the channel and in land 

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Eagle Eye Maestro

Eagle Eye

Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
Posted

Latest run. Maybe just maybe for me that Saturday may not be the only hope.

nmmukprate(4).thumb.png.8ba6bb7fa2c9bb42b09bfa85d622f961.png

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Shaunado Enthusiast

Shaunado

Posted
  • Location: Egerton, Kent
  • Location: Egerton, Kent
Posted
14 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Latest run. Maybe just maybe for me that Saturday may not be the only hope.

nmmukprate(4).thumb.png.8ba6bb7fa2c9bb42b09bfa85d622f961.png

It looks quite the downpour, but the question is: will it be thundery? Time will tell. I guess storms are possible Sat-Tues at least.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Latest run. Maybe just maybe for me that Saturday may not be the only hope.

nmmukprate(4).thumb.png.8ba6bb7fa2c9bb42b09bfa85d622f961.png

Ah the Kent clipper, everyone’s favourite! 

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Eagle Eye Maestro

Eagle Eye

Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Ah the Kent clipper, everyone’s favourite! 

It's my favourite 😉 

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ChannelThunder Accomplished

ChannelThunder

Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
Posted
25 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Sky to the south looks interesting now.

Some mid or high level cloud starting to creep in this direction from the CIs too, hopefully it's here by dusk so I can see how unstable it looks.

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offerman Experienced

offerman

Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
Posted

Good luck everyone for some decent storms this weekend! 

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Scuba steve Maestro

Scuba steve

Posted
  • Location: Arnside ,where people go to die 9000m Asl
  • Weather Preferences: All weather
  • Location: Arnside ,where people go to die 9000m Asl
Posted

I’ve noticed convective cloud streets building over central England on sat 24 

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Flash bang flash bang etc Veteran

Flash bang flash bang etc

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
Posted
27 minutes ago, Scuba steve said:

I’ve noticed convective cloud streets building over central England on sat 24 

One of my favourite soap operas. One day I’ll visit the Radar Returns pub that’s features int he programme

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted
29 minutes ago, Scuba steve said:

I’ve noticed convective cloud streets building over central England on sat 24 

Not surprised - baking hot today. Think we peaked at 29C here. Extremely capped atmosphere currently with no a fleck of cloud to be seen. Expecting some Ac to start developing later ahead of hopefully some action tomorrow morning 🤞

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Metwatch Maestro

Metwatch

Posted
  • Location: Coventry, 96m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, thunderstorms, warmth, sun any time!
  • Location: Coventry, 96m asl
Posted

Might be chasing these on the Welsh border tomorrow, but still disagreement with the UKV and other models so it is a tricky one to call. 

Could contain:

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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

Might be chasing these on the Welsh border tomorrow, but still disagreement with the UKV and other models so it is a tricky one to call. 

Could contain:

AROME is VERY different to almost every other model, it's scary. AROME is my favourite convective model...

Also chasing tomorrow, so I have no idea.

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
11 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

AROME is VERY different to almost every other model, it's scary. AROME is my favourite convective model...

Also chasing tomorrow, so I have no idea.

Scary how, what's it showing.

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ChannelThunder Accomplished

ChannelThunder

Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
Posted

Speaking of Arome, I'm almost embarrassed to post this, but it's something to cling to I guess 😄

image.thumb.png.c26eaf8613de7a2cc5907f1b04a4d6bd.png

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Foxgloves Apprentice

Foxgloves

Posted
  • Location: Ellesmere Port 38m
  • Weather Preferences: storms :)
  • Location: Ellesmere Port 38m
Posted

Hosting a barbecue tomorrow so though the models look like we might escape with a shower we'll probably get hammered 👍

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Eagle Eye Maestro

Eagle Eye

Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
Posted
10 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Well I’m confident enough of some overnight action that I’m setting the alarm for 5am…

 

Hoping she’s in the mood.

 

(Mother Nature I mean)

Ha ha. I'm not confident of much but I might set my alarm anyway. Mainly hoping for something in the afternoon to be honest.

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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted (edited)

Storms developing over northwestern France. Interestingly, the majority of models did not forecast any developments here, and those that did, didn’t show developments until much later.

Don’t follow the models too literally. As with any ‘plume’ setup, nowcasting is the best way…

Edited by Convective
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Eagle Eye Maestro

Eagle Eye

Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
Posted
Just now, Convective said:

Storms developing over northwestern France. Interestingly, the majority of models did not forecast any developments here, and those that did, didn’t show developments until the early hours of tomorrow.

Don’t follow the models too literally. As with any ‘plume’ setup, now casting is the best way…

Unfortunately, I don't think any of us are professional enough to accurately forecast the next few hours purely without any models.

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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted (edited)
39 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Scary how, what's it showing.

How different it is to the other models, just 18 hours out. 

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted
5 minutes ago, Convective said:

Storms developing over northwestern France. Interestingly, the majority of models did not forecast any developments here, and those that did, didn’t show developments until much later.

Don’t follow the models too literally. As with any ‘plume’ setup, nowcasting is the best way…

You're right, those that did have initiated a bit early. Maybe suggests atmosphere is a bit more unstable than initially thought? Purely speculating at this point.

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Eagle Eye Maestro

Eagle Eye

Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

How different it is to the other models, just 18 hours out. 

Really weird. To be honest after a good start it's been poor since about mid June. I think it handles forcing really weirdly and ends up clustering up storms in the wrong areas.

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Azazel Veteran

Azazel

Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
Posted
6 minutes ago, Convective said:

Storms developing over northwestern France. Interestingly, the majority of models did not forecast any developments here, and those that did, didn’t show developments until much later.

Don’t follow the models too literally. As with any ‘plume’ setup, nowcasting is the best way…

If they were 200 miles further north I would be quite excited 

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