Storms and Convective discussion - July 2023

[Thunders]

2 hours ago, LightningLover said:

Slim pickings once again from the 15z UKV... Blimey, what do we have to do to get a widespread elevated MCS?

We just have to put up with nothing for a bit and hopefully thing will get going later on in the season

[Thunders]

44 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

My fault. I got properly interested in weather in 2020.

I got interested about 2017 only properly getting into it in  late 2020

[Guest]

While Saturday has everyone’s eye the broad  southerly flow continues into Sunday, GFS, GEM and ARPEGE bring an MCS type structure in though sunday afternoon. One to watch. 

[ChannelThunder]

The UKV seems to have changed to cut off anything south of Cherbourg now, which isn't ideal for spotting imports!

Edited July 6, 2023 by ChannelThunder

[CoventryWeather]

22 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:

The UKV seems to have changed to cut off anything south of Cherbourg now, which isn't ideal for spotting imports!

Noticed that too - thought it was something on my end. 

Saturday seems to be a day where storms likely to be widespread, in an area of reasonable cape and shear. At the moment, it's CS England northwards I would say. South Coast, the best chance is late on Friday Night into early Saturday. Still a way to go yet so may change, but atleast something more convective is back again - been quite the occurrence this summer.

[Eagle Eye]

A few interesting things on the UKV 03Z run. We have no idea where Saturday will be but more new things to watch on Sunday and Monday.

Let's have a look at the 2 main Swiss models;

The Swiss EZ4;

Swiss 4X4;

They have both been the best 2 models this year but still show fairly different outcomes. It'll be interesting to see what happens for sure. Not looking forward to my forecast for them. I'll try and get my new map done by tomorrow night to do my forecast.

Edited July 6, 2023 by Eagle Eye

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Looks like something heavy passing through early hours Tuesday - lots of rain at least

[Windblade]

Been up in rural Maidstone earlier today and the sky was looking quite unstable/stormy. Can't see any storm warnings out for today however...

[Windblade]

13 hours ago, Thunders said:

I got interested about 2017 only properly getting into it in  late 2020

Well now this is weird. I used to HATE storms when I was a kid. I was so scared of them, used to literally hide on the stairs/under the bed sheets whenever we used to get a storm. Somewhere along the way during my early teens the fear turned into fascination and I can't get enough of Storms and extreme weather now.

[Eagle Eye]

3 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Well now this is weird. I used to HATE storms when I was a kid. I was so scared of them, used to literally hide on the stairs/under the bed sheets whenever we used to get a storm. Somewhere along the way during my early teens the fear turned into fascination and I can't get enough of Storms and extreme weather now.

Same, I used to be scared of them for ages. Fear turned into a hunger for learning more about what it was about storms. Its the adrenaline that scares you I think, you feel nervous for that big flash and loud rumble. That same adrenaline can also be used in a joyful way of cheering and shouting every time the lightning lights up the sky. Then you almost start welcoming that loud rumble of thunder. Sort of makes you feel like you're taking on the world.

[Andy Bown]

8 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Well now this is weird. I used to HATE storms when I was a kid. I was so scared of them, used to literally hide on the stairs/under the bed sheets whenever we used to get a storm. Somewhere along the way during my early teens the fear turned into fascination and I can't get enough of Storms and extreme weather now.

 

1 minute ago, Eagle Eye said:

Same, I used to be scared of them for ages. Fear turned into a hunger for learning more about what it was about storms. Its the adrenaline that scares you I think, you feel nervous for that big flash and loud rumble. That same adrenaline can also be used in a joyful way of cheering and shouting every time the lightning lights up the sky. Then you almost start welcoming that loud rumble of thunder. Sort of makes you feel like you're taking on the world.

My fear that lasted into my teenage years was ‘cured’ by seeing a close CG strike a tree and electricity box in the field behind the house I grew up in! 
 

Rather than make me worse, my fear turned into awe.

[Petorious]

Same as well with fear as a child, remember shouting mummy over and over in the middle of night if I was the only one that got woke by a storm. And yeah the fear grew into passion and wanting to understand and see more of a good storm.

[Harry]

6 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Well now this is weird. I used to HATE storms when I was a kid. I was so scared of them, used to literally hide on the stairs/under the bed sheets whenever we used to get a storm. Somewhere along the way during my early teens the fear turned into fascination and I can't get enough of Storms and extreme weather now.

Like reading a biography of me - totally the same. My fascination flipped after a massive overnight storm in August 1998 (I think possibly the 1st) which TERRIFIED me - extremely close frequent CGs, ear splitting thunder - I remember seeing a fat vivid white CG between the rooftop of my neighbour’s house and the top of my bedroom window and the thunder was an absolute explosion. My Dad encouraged me to get up and watch the storm out of the window but I was too frightened. It was all over the news the next day and the videos were incredible. That’s the exact time I remember feeling like I missed out and have been a storm loon ever since.

As for this weekend - I’m feeling a little bit optimistic as I think it’s going to turn incredibly humid and unstable and while the models aren’t churning out anything concrete, they certainly didn’t a few weeks ago and we had that blitz of storms across the SE during the morning and modelled CAPE was meagre at best. Hopeful something similar could happen this time too. 

[Eagle Eye]

Just now, Petorious said:

Same as well with fear as a child, remember shouting mummy over and over in the middle of night if I was the only one that got woke by a storm. And yeah the fear grew into passion and wanting to understand and see more of a good storm.

Seems to be a very common theme here. The adrenaline responses to fear and lots of joy is the same. Main scientific reason I can think of.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Eagle Eye said:

Seems to be a very common theme here. The adrenaline responses to fear and lots of joy is the same. Main scientific reason I can think of.

Too true: I used to hide under my eiderdown (we didn't have duvets back then!) whenever I heard rain on the roof. IMO, the best antidote to irrational fear is understanding. 

[Rufus Butterfield]

I’ll join in here and admit that I was petrified of storms as a kid. Was only in the last 5 years I guess where once I got over the fear, and began to understand how it worked, I became fascinated by them.

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:

Same, I used to be scared of them for ages. Fear turned into a hunger for learning more about what it was about storms. Its the adrenaline that scares you I think, you feel nervous for that big flash and loud rumble. That same adrenaline can also be used in a joyful way of cheering and shouting every time the lightning lights up the sky. Then you almost start welcoming that loud rumble of thunder. Sort of makes you feel like you're taking on the world.

What I hate is when you getnp warning, like when it's been raining for a good twenty minutes and then a CG  bolt decides to come out of the blue somewhere near. I like hearing it get closer so I expect a bang at some point, often back end just before the storm leaves.

[Metwatch]

I might be in the minority here, but I don't remember being frightened of storms, was always facinated by them. My first memory of seeing a storm was with very distant CGs and intra cloud lightning inland, while staying at the silver coast in Portugal either 2010 or 2011 July.

Edited July 6, 2023 by Metwatch

[Tobsterstorm 7469]

6 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

I might be in the miniority here, but I don't remember being frightened of storms, was always facinated by them. My first memory of seeing a storm was with very distant CGs and intra cloud lightning inland, while staying at the silver coast in Portugal either 2010 or 2011 July.

Same for me, I always loved them when I was a kid and it put a smile on my face!  

Edited July 6, 2023 by Tobsterstorm 7469

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

4 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

What I hate is when you getnp warning, like when it's been raining for a good twenty minutes and then a CG  bolt decides to come out of the blue somewhere near. I like hearing it get closer so I expect a bang at some point, often back end just before the storm leaves.

Paper or receipts on the dash … they will leap about or stick to the glass if there’s a close strike. I’ve seen it happen once before so now I always try and put some thin paper out when I’m chasing and it’s given me a sense of security when things get close.

Not being in a thunderstorm is the other solution

[Windblade]

1 hour ago, Andy Bown said:

 

My fear that lasted into my teenage years was ‘cured’ by seeing a close CG strike a tree and electricity box in the field behind the house I grew up in! 
 

Rather than make me worse, my fear turned into awe.

Ah man, AWESOME! I would've loved to have seen that! 

[Eagle Eye]

14 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

What I hate is when you getnp warning, like when it's been raining for a good twenty minutes and then a CG  bolt decides to come out of the blue somewhere near. I like hearing it get closer so I expect a bang at some point, often back end just before the storm leaves.

And you can't get it on camera either because you just aren't expecting it.

[Windblade]

9 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Paper or receipts on the dash … they will leap about or stick to the glass if there’s a close strike. I’ve seen it happen once before so now I always try and put some thin paper out when I’m chasing and it’s given me a sense of security when things get close.

Not being in a thunderstorm is the other solution

I did not know that! Very useful if storm chasing/spotting. 

[matt111]

I also used to hide whenever we had a thunderstorm. It mainly stemmed from a close lightning strike that almost hit our house when I was very young. It took me a long time to start enjoying them and even though I do now I still feel a bit wary at times when we get a storm right overhead.

[Tamsin]

On the early hours of July the 1st between 1996 and probably 1998 I remember drawing the bathroom curtains (not in the art sense) only to greeted by a surprise flash of lightning.  Bit of a brown trousers moment (again not literally).  Spent the rest of the storm listening to music on headphones (Mansun) with my head under the covers and my eyes shut. Could still see the lightning, it was that bright.  Now I stare at precip shafts thinking "come on, just one will do. Right in the middle please"

Edited July 6, 2023 by Tamsin