Autumn 2023

[Catbrainz]

7 minutes ago, baddie said:

Loved last October due to sun and storms, felt more like June. I'm surprised that most people said it was a poor October

I quite liked it too. Looking at Met maps it had above average temps and sunshine for most  and rainfall was a little on the high side but not extremely so. It does look it was a very poor month for Western Scotland but apart from that decent for most of the UK. Certainly better than Oct 2020 for sure lol now that was a rain and cloud fest with temps on the cooler side. 

[The PIT]

22 minutes ago, razorgrain said:

Considering how easily we're reaching these 850hPa temperatures, I really do wonder what spring and summer have in store for us. The pattern we had in July and August was an anomaly I wouldn't expect to see a repeat of.

Well with El Nino and Tonga eruption still possibly having an effect the right set up could give us 40C.

[NEVES SCREAMER]

Autumn better than summer in my book. And spring.

[reef]

The sun never did make an appearance. We maxed out at 18.6C and remain on 9.8 hours of sunshine so far this month. The UKV is showing us at 18-19C every day now and no sunshine until Wednesday afternoon after the cold front moves through.

We could potentially come out of the first 11 days of the month with less than an hour per day of sunshine on average.

[MattStoke]

4 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Well with El Nino and Tonga eruption still possibly having an effect the right set up could give us 40C.

40°C in the UK? That’ll never happen!

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

40°C in the UK? That’ll never happen!

[cheese]

7 minutes ago, reef said:

The sun never did make an appearance. We maxed out at 18.6C and remain on 9.8 hours of sunshine so far this month. The UKV is showing us at 18-19C every day now and no sunshine until Wednesday afternoon after the cold front moves through.

We could potentially come out of the first 11 days of the month with less than an hour per day of sunshine on average.

UKV has upgraded the temps for here interestingly enough, showing 21/22C tomorrow, 20/21C on Monday and 20C on Tuesday. Yesterday it was only showing 16/17C on Monday and 18/19C on Sunday. 

It will all depend on cloud amounts/thickness though. 

Edited October 7, 2023 by cheese

[WYorksWeather]

2 hours ago, MattStoke said:

Clearing here. Just in time for nightfall  

Well, nice in isolation but a sign/symptom of the bigger more concerning picture. These temperatures aren’t record breaking, after all, but the airmass that has brought it here is quite something for October. 17-19°C T850 used to be extreme in summer. Now it pops up in mid autumn. A more southerly flow would have seen date records smashed and the October record threatened.

I'd go a bit further than that to be honest. One of the things is that we're not seeing the full range of what the current climate can do - whereas further back we have a relatively stable temperature trend, so older records are 1 in 100 year events. A lot of recent records have been set under less-than-perfect conditions. Last year's 40C was prevented from going even higher, as the very highest 850s began to clear to the east just after lunchtime, or it might even have reached 42C or 43C as was projected by some models.

Makes you wonder what could be achieved with a 1 in 100 year event in each month in 2023, so my speculation below.

If we look at intervals of 5C that haven't been achieved in a given month, then I think 20C in December and January is a no-brainer possibility. 25C in November and February probably a stretch since it's quite a jump and those records are quite recent. A 30C March is probably beyond the range of possibility for now, but certainly April and October are possible. This is in fact a record-breaking 850hPa flow, so there's no reason why better surface conditions wouldn't have smashed the record. Even with fairly poor surface conditions (wet ground, lots of high cloud, poorly directed surface wind) we've got to 25C today.

Moving on to the extended summer period, 35C in May is only an advance of just over 2C on a 70-year old record, so that should be doable. 40C in September would be bonkers and probably not doable at the moment, same in June I think. 40C in August is probably doable.

Not saying any of these will happen in the next year or two, but given the trajectory we're on, I'd be surprised if we don't see at least a couple of these by 2030, and most of them by 2050.

[alexisj9]

23 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

40°C in the UK? That’ll never happen!

Ha ha ha lol, good one, your right re October, or at least I hope you are at any rate.

[NEVES SCREAMER]

Looks like 11th October we wave goodbye to nice weather. And look forward to 7 months of cold and dark. 

[Coldilocks]

5 minutes ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

Looks like 11th October we wave goodbye to nice weather. And look forward to 7 months of cold and dark. 

One can only hope.

[baddie]

37 minutes ago, Catbrainz said:

I quite liked it too. Looking at Met maps it had above average temps and sunshine for most  and rainfall was a little on the high side but not extremely so. It does look it was a very poor month for Western Scotland but apart from that decent for most of the UK. Certainly better than Oct 2020 for sure lol now that was a rain and cloud fest with temps on the cooler side. 

October 2018 was the golden October, just lovely. One of the sunniest on record too. Hoping we get a month similar to that (Looks like the rest of the month would be more like October 2021)

Edited October 7, 2023 by baddie

[baddie]

8 minutes ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

Looks like 11th October we wave goodbye to nice weather. And look forward to 7 months of cold and dark. 

12th could possibly be a clear sunny day

[Alderc 2.0]

3 hours ago, markyo said:

Nothing cracking about it. Very worrying is a far better phrase.Clear sign of the trouble we are in, just look at Scotland today. This Autumn could prove to be one of the worst ever recorded.

Not really. Not even a date max.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

3 hours ago, Josh Rubio said:

Is anyone able to get their crystal ball out for me please? 
 

I’m due to head to Glasgow next Saturday by train via the WCML from Rugby - what’s the flooding risk looking like throughout next week and into the weekend? Today has proven bad for many routes to and within Scotland by rail. 

Unfortunately, the weather is very hard to predict any further than a couple of days in advance. Even for the most experienced weather forecasters.

But fingers crossed that you get the weather you are after. 

Edited October 7, 2023 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Weather Enthusiast91]

47 minutes ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

Autumn better than summer in my book. And spring.

Summer and autumn have been switched this year, as have February and March.

I will remember 2023 as being a year of having the right weather setups, but at the wrong times of the year.

If we were to have this current warm spell 3 months ago, we could be looking at temps in the mid 30s.

Edited October 7, 2023 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Cosmo69]

On 05/10/2023 at 15:24, cheese said:

It really doesn't though. The immediate south coast is a fair bit sunnier than everywhere else but that's about it really. Everywhere in the UK has an oceanic climate, there is very little climatic variation.

France OTOH has a surprising amount of variation for a smallish country - it probably has the most variation of any European country bar Russia. North is oceanic like the UK, then it's subtropical around Lyon, before getting to sunny Mediterranean in the south. 

I wouldnt call Lyon subtropical lol. And Nice can be pretty cold in winter with that north mistral wind  Its a funny thing, that northern england is just dull compared with south east coast. The average annual temp here is near 12C, so quite a bit warmer than the higher elevations of Leeds, which is under 9C. But there is a part of Leeds that is lower and nearer 10C. 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

50 minutes ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

Autumn better than summer in my book. And spring.

Definitely!! I kept saying roll on September didn't I!!

[raz.org.rain]

1 hour ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

Yeah. It was Autumn in advance.

Makes up for the awful July which was an unforgivable pile of sh**e.

That supposedly average July which was nothing short of an abomination.

[Cosmo69]

On 05/10/2023 at 15:49, razorgrain said:

In my part of the north we usually get the same warm weather that the south does. Being part of the English lowlands allows the warmer air to move northwards here with no issue I guess. Much further north in Newcastle, they always seem to get short changed. Even on the hottest days, they seem to be stuck in a cooler microclimate.

You can, but not anywhere as often. I have relatives from cheshire, frodsham, and it is a bit of a micro climate. But is way cloudier but temp wise can indeed match the south east more so in winter and spring

[cheese]

5 minutes ago, Cosmo69 said:

I wouldnt call Lyon subtropical lol. And Nice can be pretty cold in winter with that north mistral wind  Its a funny thing, that northern england is just dull compared with south east coast. The average annual temp here is near 12C, so quite a bit warmer than the higher elevations of Leeds, which is under 9C. But there is a part of Leeds that is lower and nearer 10C. 

Lyon officially has a subtropical climate for the 1991-2020 period because its coldest month has a mean temperature above 0C and its hottest month has a mean temperature above 22C.

Edited October 7, 2023 by cheese

[Cosmo69]

Just now, cheese said:

Lyon officially has a subtropical climate for the 1991-2020 period. 

Well that is surprising as its annual is 13C, just over a degree warmer than London.

[cheese]

1 minute ago, Cosmo69 said:

Well that is surprising as its annual is 13C, just over a degree warmer than London.

I edited my comment to include the subtropical criteria. It’s according to the Koppen climate classification system. Lyon is on the border of subtropical and oceanic but has indeed moved into the subtropical category now.

Edited October 7, 2023 by cheese

[markyo]

25 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

Not really. Not even a date max.

Could......

Edited October 7, 2023 by markyo

[cheese]

13 minutes ago, Cosmo69 said:

You can, but not anywhere as often. I have relatives from cheshire, frodsham, and it is a bit of a micro climate. But is way cloudier but temp wise can indeed match the south east more so in winter and spring

Like I said a couple of days ago, in terms of sunshine the difference is more the SE coast vs everywhere else. The Sussex coast gets around 1900 hours of sun per year but go further inland to Crawley and they get 1574 hours of sun, which is virtually identical to what we get here.

Edited October 7, 2023 by cheese