Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Not set yet @CoventryWeatheras there's still more charts to upload.   Have to say it myself that the mean charts though so far are disappointing in the sense that we still have the stubborn Greenland high.   

GEM 12Z is looking dubious tonight too I have to say, that being said and more is that the water companies have probably gagged for these unsettled conditions to come off.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php

 

 

 

 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Not as much rain on the UKMO at 168 hours ahead for next weekend, but still not really up to standard for this time of the year.  

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmoeu.php

[JayAlmeida]

52 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

Improving picture there on the latest GFS at day 10 onwards, probably for the south mainly where it stays settled the longest.

Too jaded for day 10 charts now been led down the garden path by the GEM and ECM too many times

Edited July 22, 2023 by JayAlmeida

[Uncertainty]

Finally, low heights over Greenland! 
 

Hopefully it has a decent ish cluster to go with it.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

12 minutes ago, Uncertainty said:

Finally, low heights over Greenland! 
 

Hopefully it has a decent ish cluster to go with it.

Indeed and an azores high developing too according to this below.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

According to this its a flat westerly regime but with the troughing still in place, with a ridge never too far away.     

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

[pinball wizard]

7 hours ago, markyo said:

Very true, words are meaningless if no one understands them....

Google's everyone's friend when it comes to learning

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Looks like the ECM 12Z op was supported a bit tonight by the ensemble mean except the low pressure is a bit more south.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0

 

Edited July 22, 2023 by Addicks Fan 1981

[Man With Beard]

12Z ECM ensembles mean, the signal for slightly warmer air getting in at the turn of the month getting stronger:

[Addicks Fan 1981]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

12Z ECM ensembles mean, the signal for slightly warmer air getting in at the turn of the month getting stronger:

Thank you for clarity on that as sometimes the heights can deceive you a bit.    

[johnholmes]

2 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

According to this its a flat westerly regime but with the troughing still in place, with a ridge never too far away.     

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

what ridge?

[JayAlmeida]

15 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

what ridge?

That red line does appear to be moving in the right direction.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

This to me @JayAlmeidawould suggest a north/south split, now this was also mentioned on the met office video this week as well if my memory serves me rightly.   

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2023072212&fh=264

 

Edited July 22, 2023 by Addicks Fan 1981

[Earthshine]

GFS OP brings the furnace in for August.

[Don]

16 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

GFS OP brings the furnace in for August.

Yes, I'm starting to get a little uneasy with the latest GFS FI trend!! 

[johnholmes]

8 hours ago, JayAlmeida said:

That red line does appear to be moving in the right direction.

Sorry it is not a ridge, just a very small +ve height rise. It would need it to be showing about 120-160 DM for any ridge to be showing in a similar area.

[KTtom]

Nothing particularly exciting on show from 00z. Those who questioned the 'rock solid science' for a hot first week August and got shot down probably having a wry smile. 

[RJBingham]

6 hours ago, Don said:

Yes, I'm starting to get a little uneasy with the latest GFS FI trend!! 

I wouldn't worry too much, it's the GFS after all. 

[Man With Beard]

10 minutes ago, KTtom said:

"Those who questioned the 'rock solid science' for a hot first week August and got shot down probably having a wry smile"

And then they looked at the ECM 00Z and thought "Hmmm. Maybe those teleconnections guys have a chance after all"

[northwestsnow]

Much better from ECM..

[KTtom]

27 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

And then they looked at the ECM 00Z and thought "Hmmm. Maybe those teleconnections guys have a chance after all"

For a day 10 chart, its better than the GFS that's for sure.. not sure I'm seeing a heatwave from there tho.. pretty average which is where the Met think we'll be heading mid month with an up-tick of temperatures... also noted that this has shifted out somewhat, was originally start of August.  

[TSNWK]

25 minutes ago, KTtom said:

For a day 10 chart, its better than the GFS that's for sure.. not sure I'm seeing a heatwave from there tho.. pretty average which is where the Met think we'll be heading mid month with an up-tick of temperatures... also noted that this has shifted out somewhat, was originally start of August.  

Teleconnections impact are about a month late and counting this time round Simply too much chaos that in my view make Teleconnections limited to well thought out theories presently.. 

[CoventryWeather]

GEFS ensemble 5:

Another one of these charts. Not going to say much about this one..

[mushymanrob]

Troughing set to remain dominant in a mean Westerly flow into August


which can be seen on the GFS average for ten days time,


and theres not much change in 2 weeks time although imho these charts are closer to average


Yet again this chart suggests any return to high pressure dominance has now been put back until the 15th at the earliest


To me, the first half of August is looking average which isnt bad , but its not settled and there no real warmth/heat away from the Southeast.

[ANYWEATHER]

Cool and unsettled as we move into August, according to gfs, ecm warms it up a bit before turning cooler and unsettled,  but Ecm has been pants of late. ...!