Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

For those who say 2012 was not going to happen again ,well it already has to a lot of folks ,and with charts like these where there is no let up or signs of a change in weather pattern in the reliable and unreliable time frame.  This summer is going to be tagged along the likes of 2007 and 2012 ......... The only saving grace was June.......☺

3 wet weeks in july and youre comparing it to 2012 and 2007?... even if it stopped wet this year couldnt be as bad because of the glorious june.

[CoventryWeather]

Anyone got the link to the ECM clusters charts? Would be interesting to see whether they follow what the anomalies are showing above. 

I think, considering the outlook the past few days, that the last week of July isn't looking as bad as what it was. Subtle hints of a pressure rise in early August, but have a feeling it will be pushed backwards until atleast week two. 

Going Bournemouth end of August/early September, so kind of wanting the warmer weather towards then! 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

10 minutes ago, knocker said:

Does he give any justification for this comment, such as a statement from ECMWF? Or is this merely his opinion in which case we can safely ignore.

Apparently there was an image in the tweet saying the servers were not available or something down those lines.  Checked the tweet earlier.   

[Man With Beard]

Looking at the ECM ensembles again... the ray of hope for the turn of the month has been snuffed out in the last couple of ensemble sets. Not as many warmer runs between July 31 and August 5, and the duration of warmer weather has been shortened where it is shown. In addition, a new period of rainfall between 31st July and 2nd August is firming up fast.

[Paul]

24 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

According to James peacock on twitter the ECMWF servers have been struggling lately, so it's basically a message to not to be totally taken in by whatever output is served.   

He didn't mean it in that way tbh. The screenshot is of the page where you can view and download ECMWF images etc - he was simply commenting on that, which is very separate to the servers which create the models etc and not connected in any way to the output or accuracy of it.

[Man With Beard]

10 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:

Anyone got the link to the ECM clusters charts? Would be interesting to see whether they follow what the anomalies are showing above. 

I think, considering the outlook the past few days, that the last week of July isn't looking as bad as what it was. Subtle hints of a pressure rise in early August, but have a feeling it will be pushed backwards until atleast week two. 

Going Bournemouth end of August/early September, so kind of wanting the warmer weather towards then! 

ECMWF | Charts

CHARTS.ECMWF.INT

nothing particularly settled in any of the clusters until beyond 8 August now

 

[ANYWEATHER]

13 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

3 wet weeks in july and youre comparing it to 2012 and 2007?... even if it stopped wet this year couldnt be as bad because of the glorious june.

I did mention June was good. I have mentioned shades of 2012. Reading in the summer thread some people are saying this is the worst July they can remember, but not where I live…at the moment!

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Thank you very much @Pauland now I have a much deeper understanding of everything.    

[Addicks Fan 1981]

12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECMWF | Charts

CHARTS.ECMWF.INT

nothing particularly settled in any of the clusters until beyond 8 August now

 

And yet the hovmoller chart seems at odds with the ensembles.   

[danm]

Still struggling to see any sustained dry and warm weather showing on the models as we get into August. In fact, next week is looking wet and cool again on the ECM. There are some hints in the far reaches of the GFS, but that's for the second week of August which is an age away. 

The south does at times benefit from some temporary ridges, so there will be some fine and sunny days, but troughs then cross us all at various points so nothing sustained is currently showing up. 

 

[pyrotech]

Although i took a lot of flack for presenting a forecast that high pressure was more likely for UK second half of August.

Here i go again.

The MJO is the main driver that has been out of sync for us to get at least some form of summer.  There are other factors driving it including the move of ENSO towards El Nino from a triple dip La Nina.  

The MJO forecast charts are no different from any other forecast. However consensus has been very evident of a phase somewhere between 5 and 7. 

The charts are now showing subtle hints that the forecast may be correct and a glimmer of hope will be here for those wanting just a hint of summer. 

The discussion about North / South split

It is a very likely scenario at this time of year, due to other teleconnections and influences on our Jet stream.

However i feel, looking at the evolution of the changes in the Atmosphere that for a time this will be an all UK high, not just South.  Call that a hunch if you like.

Sea temperatures in North Atlantic are the big anomaly and that will effect just how amplified the jet stream is and how long that bit of summer lasts.

I expect hints of this to show up on GFS  sometime over the weekend coming as the middle of August gets into its timeframe.

 

[carinthian]

A bit of alternative interest in contrast the the scorching temps across Southern Europe is being shown by our Super HD model for Wednesday morning. Snowfalls of between 3 cm-20cm predicted above 2000m. Not bad for late July and especially good for the glaciers !

C

[Don]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

3 wet weeks in july and youre comparing it to 2012 and 2007?... even if it stopped wet this year couldnt be as bad because of the glorious june.

Yes, it almost seems like the hottest June on record has been forgotten!

1 hour ago, SunnyG said:

Real summer is over at the end of July.

I wouldn't say that, maybe mid-late August, but definitely not the end of July.

[Northernlights]

One of the big issues in the contrasting weather we have had this summer is now showing up in spring barley crops on sandy or gravelly soils in this area as ripening crops have  large patches of fresh green crop emerging .This is what is known as second growth as plants put up secondary tillers when moisture levels in soil return to normal as the drought from  June eases. This is going to cause some very poor samples this harvest.  Not unusual but have never seen it on this scale before perhaps 20% of a field

[pyrotech]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Yes, it almost seems like the hottest June on record has been forgotten!

We forecast in March that 2023 would be similar to 2018 in regards to wildfire (UK)

Normal years see wildfire season between late  March and late May.

We forecast a very quiet season in those times - which include the Easter holidays.

Similar to 2018, we forecast that June would be the prolonged wildfire season this year.

Exactly what has happened, so although some key differences - in many ways 2023 is similar to 2018

 

[MrNooo]

1 hour ago, Northernlights said:

One of the big issues in the contrasting weather we have had this summer is now showing up in spring barley crops on sandy or gravelly soils in this area as ripening crops have  large patches of fresh green crop emerging .This is what is known as second growth as plants put up secondary tillers when moisture levels in soil return to normal as the drought from  June eases. This is going to cause some very poor samples this harvest.  Not unusual but have never seen it on this scale before perhaps 20% of a field

Yes, have the same here on brash with clay caps, sprayed a load off the other day, not that I wanted to but needs must. Think the mobile drier will be busy when we eventually get going. Shades of 2012 here already.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

4 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

For those who say 2012 was not going to happen again ,well it already has to a lot of folks ,and with charts like these where there is no let up or signs of a change in weather pattern in the reliable and unreliable time frame.  This summer is going to be tagged along the likes of 2007 and 2012 ......... The only saving grace was June.......☺

June doesn't save it for me That was Spring late. Summer hasn't arrived. Everything has just been so bad it doesn't save it at all. We're back to square 1. I want Autumn to come for things to settle down. I've given up. Any chart that comes up showing any warmth doesn't last mroe than a day before it's ripped away from us

[ANYWEATHER]

Looks like the Azores High has packed up and dissappeared. ....

[danm]

2 hours ago, Don said:

Yes, it almost seems like the hottest June on record has been forgotten!

I wouldn't say that, maybe mid-late August, but definitely not the end of July.

Definitely wouldn't say real Summer is over either at the end of July. Peak Summer for me has always been mid July to mid August, especially further south. August can bring plenty of sunny and warm/hot weather. The problem we have is there is no substantial change showing as we move into August, so the deeper we have to wait in the month for something Summery, the less time we have left. 

[danm]

19 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Looks like the Azores High has packed up and dissappeared. ....

It's odd you'd post that to insinuate something negative, when it actually sows a possible cut off low developing with warm air being drawn up from the S/SE. 

[ANYWEATHER]

8 minutes ago, danm said:

It's odd you'd post that to insinuate something negative, when it actually sows a possible cut off low developing with warm air being drawn up from the S/SE. 

Quite.......

[CoventryWeather]

A quick regard to show what might be needed to shift this pattern - shown nicely on the GFS06z in its latter frames.

No means change on its next run, but signs of the hurricane season starting early August - been hinting at a cyclone on the east coast last few runs, might be a way to cause a trough in the Atlantic as shown here. Feel if it was to become warmer, then this is the pattern I would most likely expect rather than a dominant high right over the UK. 

Experts here probably explain it a little better than what I've done. 

[Metwatch]

2 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Looks like the Azores High has packed up and dissappeared. ....

Always love these type of set ups, makes me feel nostalgic for the surface conditions they bring. 

Warmth, and sometimes thundery in a south easterly flow, as a massive low sits out in the Azores. 

[TSNWK]

2 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Looks like the Azores High has packed up and dissappeared. ....

Bank... would be warm to very warm under that.. risk of storms cropping up but very warm generally.. 

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Bank... would be warm to very warm under that.. risk of storms cropping up but very warm generally.. 

Yes that chart is a lot better than serial gloomist ANYWEATHER lets on. Certainly miles ahead of the last couple of days!