Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

[TwisterGirl81]

2 hours ago, S Bragg said:

Some worrying signs that, although next week's heat may be a one day wonder high pressure may be on the way back early in the week after.  Let's hope we don't see a return to prolonged heat like we had last August.  

Worrying? What’s worrying is 5 weeks of rubbish weather in mid summer. After 6 weeks of below average temps this is great to hear so people can actually enjoy summer 

Edited August 5, 2023 by TwisterGirl81

[northwestsnow]

2 hours ago, Uncertainty said:

Is it too early to get excited?
 

Yes I know… no euro low heights, we’ve been here before, it’s just one run, it’s August  BUT IM STILL GONNA POST IT

 

Please be right

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Vortex3929 said:

OK thanks. So EPS troughs are white/blue and the orange reddish colours = ridging or?

Is there also a link to understand the EPS better ? (Saves bombarding you with q's)

The general rule of thumb is ridging is orange/red.. troughing is blue, white is neutral.

Nope, not the EPS but i think @johnholmes has done one in the learning zone for the noaa charts which follow the same principal... youll have to look that one up yourself! lol.

[ANYWEATHER]

The upcoming pattern, looks like brief very warm spells punctuated by low pressure bringing thundery rain and cooler weather ,rinse and repeat scenario, well at least for the time being anyway....

[danm]

Another decent GFS run with pressure building back in next weekend and early the following week after a very brief incursion of LP to more western areas on Friday. 

[Bristawl Si]

29 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

And to any newbies and Winter lovers who are a tad concerned over this forecast....no need to worry as the forecasting method is purely not teleconnections based

The crystal ball method has as much chance of being correct as the teleconnections-based ones, looking back over this Summer's LRFs and guesswork.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

2 hours ago, Uncertainty said:

Is it too early to get excited?
 

Yes I know… no euro low heights, we’ve been here before, it’s just one run, it’s August  BUT IM STILL GONNA POST IT

 

A chart showing that in fantasy means a mild wet and mild winter in reality. 

I wouldn't even waste a single tiddle tiny bit of my energy getting excited about it. 

Edited August 5, 2023 by Fourty Point Three Degrees

[Maz]

6 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

red = high, blue = low... the dotted line down the middle is the greenwich meridian, its a longitude chart that lines up with the smaller map below.
use the dates on the left, work across to the meridian... most of the uk is just to the left of the meridian (west).

A new chart to me a few weeks back.  It was well explained on one of the Met office deep dives back in July (and by @mushymanrob above!).

They are great for the really general pattern and showing where uncertainty increases (as mentioned above).

They also show how much mobility there is.  If as you work down the diagram the lows or high are vertical there is little movement, I.e expect a meridional blocked pattern with “stuck” patterns, e.g. high over UK (at 0 degrees - the middle of the diagram) in early June and low in July.

Around recent days the vertical columns become diagonal.  The lows and highs are moving W->E, albeit slowly.  A steeper diagonal would show zonal (not seen that yet since watching them in June), and a reversed diagonal, represents “retrogression”, movement E->W, which has been seen a bit recently.

Also it is possible to count either the number of highs or lows across the diagram at any one point in time.  There were 5 in mid July (5 wave pattern - really stuck).  Currently there is progression W->E as mentioned above and also a 4 wave pattern).

The upcoming H pressure at 0 degrees is shown and then low to West and high to East.  Hence some suggesting a 2nd plume might follow the one later this week.

As uncertainty increases through time there seems to be a move to a 5 wave pattern and “columns” again.  If so, and if there is a high over us, we might have a settled, warm end to August.   If the pattern sets up with the high to our Near East, heat and plumes and instability more likely.

Given the uncertainty can’t rule out the low pressure in the Atlantic being closer unfortunately.

The diagram doesn’t say anything about N->S variation, so clearly doesn’t give a full picture.  But used with the anomalies etc does seem to improve our view of the likely “big picture” situation out to perhaps 3 weeks .

 

[Don]

1 hour ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

When is it going to snow please?

March next year, following a SSW late February!! 

[raz.org.rain]

Surely this isn't good news for snow and cold lovers? 
 

 

[alexisj9]

7 minutes ago, razorgrain said:

Surely this isn't good news for snow and cold lovers? 
 

 

I'd say it sounds good for snow lovers, high over Greenland and a southerly jet are good, the south needs the high east based though, otherwise the snow is a Midlands north affair.

[JR319]

I’m confused - some people are saying warmer and settled weather with little rain forecast whereas others are saying a brief warm up before returning to cooler and more unsettled conditions. Which one is it? 

[summer blizzard]

11 minutes ago, JR319 said:

I’m confused - some people are saying warmer and settled weather with little rain forecast whereas others are saying a brief warm up before returning to cooler and more unsettled conditions. Which one is it? 

Currently the GFS and GEM suggest a day or two of what one could consider heat before a more humid and unsettled end to the ten day period. Anything beyond that is hope. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, razorgrain said:

Surely this isn't good news for snow and cold lovers? 
 

 

Having higher than average heights around Greenland would be very good news for winter lovers. Temperature anomaly charts will always show warmer than average at this lead time…there’s hardly any below average shown anywhere. It’s the height anomalies that need to be taken notice of.

It’s hinting at a stronger S arm of the jet, which may send LP into France rather than across the UK. One of our snowiest set ups E.g 78/79

There’s a signal for a cold Europe there.

It’s a very 09/10 signal with that European trough. I saw an overnight low of -15 that winter. The UKs coldest winter since 78/79.

If you follow the ENSO thread, you’ll know this scenario has been my thinking for a month or two now.

Edited August 5, 2023 by CreweCold

[northwestsnow]

Im close to giving up on summer now tbh.

if ec is right it will be middle of August and we are STILL stuck with lows trapped at our latitude.

 

[northwestsnow]

29 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Having higher than average heights around Greenland would be very good news for winter lovers. Temperature anomaly charts will always show warmer than average at this lead time…there’s hardly any below average shown anywhere. It’s the height anomalies that need to be taken notice of.

It’s hinting at a stronger S arm of the jet, which may send LP into France rather than across the UK. One of our snowiest set ups E.g 78/79

There’s a signal for a cold Europe there.

It’s a very 09/10 signal with that European trough. I saw an overnight low of -15 that winter. The UKs coldest winter since 78/79.

If you follow the ENSO thread, you’ll know this scenario has been my thinking for a month or two now.

I'll be very happy if September's update is along these lines !!

The model has also sharply reduced the number of named hurricanes which is also a suprise.

[raz.org.rain]

20 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im close to giving up on summer now tbh.

if ec is right it will be middle of August and we are STILL stuck with lows trapped at our latitude.

 

Likely an outlier? I'm sure there were other ensembles suggesting that warmer than average is more likely than not after a brief passing low next weekend 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, razorgrain said:

Likely an outlier? I'm sure there were other ensembles suggesting that warmer than average is more likely than not after a brief passing low next weekend 

Hopefully an outlier but I fear we are going to see at best a NW SE split and that's useless after weeks and weeks of utter crap.

[Frosty.]

WOW.. …2 months since I posted, just shows how things have gone since that amazing June!.. anyway, september could be nae bad according to the cfs?  

 

[Mark wheeler]

Poor end to ECM tonight, hopefully it is wrong. That said no washout .

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

WOW.. …2 months since I posted, just shows how things have gone since that amazing June!.. anyway, september could be nae bad according to the cfs?  

 

Cool nights, pleasant days. Perfectly fine autumn weather there.

[Buzz]

I wonder when some posters will stop looking at the assorted model outputs of 5, 6, 7 plus days away and thing "yup, that's exactly what's going to happen", whether it's showing something they really want or something that they definitely don't want.

This kind of 'analysis' (hah!) has been going on here for very many years and seemingly some posters lack the capacity to learn, instead they put their own personal needs and emotions before any kind of analysis or logical thinking. Not only that but they teach newer, far less experienced members bad habits. Forum threads descend into chaos and bickering because of this.

Not saying that you shouldn't look at the more unreliable model outputs, but bear in mind that they are just that - unreliable. Use them together as general guidance of possible emerging patterns, but no more than that.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

WOW.. …2 months since I posted, just shows how things have gone since that amazing June!.. anyway, september could be nae bad according to the cfs?  

 

Welcome back @Frosty.you have been missed and your contributions are always top notch.   

Cheers for the heads up regarding September as i am thinking down the same lines as you on this.   

 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

1 minute ago, Buzz said:

I wonder when some posters will stop looking at the assorted model outputs of 5, 6, 7 plus days away and thing "yup, that's exactly what's going to happen", whether it's showing something they really want or something that they definitely don't want.

This kind of 'analysis' (hah!) has been going on here for very many years and seemingly some posters lack the capacity to learn, instead they put their own personal needs and emotions before any kind of analysis or logical thinking. Not only that but they teach newer, far less experienced members bad habits. Forum threads descend into chaos and bickering because of this.

Not saying that you shouldn't look at the more unreliable model outputs, but bear in mind that they are just that - unreliable. Use them together as general guidance of possible emerging patterns, but no more than that.

The posters with the more advanced knowledge advise us to look at plots which in turn makes us realise that the signals are the prime driver of the models.   

The reason behind our wave 5 pattern for last month was the sudden drop in AAM and it was a real job at getting the AAM to recover, acting in a niña way when niño was clearly developing.    

That said this summer does seem to have had a lot of encroaching troughs and downstream ridges doing rounds if interplay if you like.    

 

[Guest]

Brief burst of warmth next week but that trend to return to below average immediately after is gathering pace.