Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

[northwestsnow]

11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM clusters this morning showing that the ridge to the east is now probably too far east to promote a period of settled weather in the UK over the next week, T120-T168, as has been the trend over the last couple of days:

Winds by T168 probably westerly (Cluster 2) or southwesterly (1&3), so more likely warmer than average still.

Yup , mild and wet.

Moreso the further NW one heads ...

Looks like any hope of a stable ridge is on the backfoot..

[Guest]

The 06z GFS now has this potential storm for Ireland at 144 hrs:

[Sky Full]

50 minutes ago, Tidal Wave said:

The 06z GFS now has this potential storm for Ireland at 144 hrs:

Yep.   Probably best to avoid the Irish Sea ferries next Wednesday……

GFS.                                                              UKMO

    

[Summer8906]

GFS 06z then turns things somewhat less cyclonic mmediately afterwards, not great by any means but at least pressure isn't low in the south. Eventually somewhat anticyclonic in the S in FI, hoping this isn't going to be like the usual August game of "high pressure perpetually in FI which never arrives".

We might get one good day next week on Thursday out of that run in between the drab and perhaps drizzly weather on the other days if that ridge builds the way it's showing.

Edited September 21, 2023 by Summer8906

[Metwatch]

9 hours ago, cheese said:

Our last 20C+ day of the year typically occurs in October, and some Octobers we will get multiple days above 20C, so I’d expect at least a few more pleasantly warm days in the low 20s up to mid October before autumn proper sets in (unless you live in Scotland/NI/far northern England where you’ll probably not see another 20C day until May next year). 

Interestingly, the last time I reached 20C in October here was back in 2018. I think since 2019, October's have been persistently unsettled / westerly so not really much of a chance to get something much warmer than the high teens at the surface here, or low 20s in the far east. I think the same this year looking at the latest model output heading into October.

Edited September 21, 2023 by Metwatch

[Mark wheeler]

Icon , further south and east holding onto more warmer and settled conditions. The low later on doesn't make much progress east on this particular run.

[cheese]

14 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

Interestingly, the last time I reached 20C in October here was back in 2018. I think since 2019, October's have been persistently unsettled / westerly so not really much of a chance to get something much warmer than the high teens at the surface here, or low 20s in the far east. I think the same this year looking at the latest model output heading into October.

We saw 2 days above 20C in October 2021 here - 22.2C on the 7th and 22.1C on the 8th. October last year only reached 19C though. 
 

I’m surprised it’s been that long in Coventry. Maybe being on the leeward side of the Pennines makes reaching the low 20s in October easier here during westerlies? Due to the foehn effect. 

Edited September 21, 2023 by cheese

[Mark wheeler]

A much improved UKMO run this afternoon to this morning which had low pressure steaming through.

 

Meanwhile the Gem is also improved on its morning run . The low does arrive and gives Ireland and Scotland some stormy weather while further south and east holding on to warmer and more settled conditions.

Edited September 21, 2023 by Mark wheeler

[summer blizzard]

GFS and GEM try build pressure to a greater degree than the morning Euro but largely fail in the end. UKMO backs the morning Euro. 

Autumn has arrived. 

[NewEra21]

Lovely end to the GFS 12z, if you like it cold. Won’t look anything like that next run, but that’s what gets me excited as we head deeper into autumn and into winter.

 

 

[Maz]

25 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

GFS and GEM try build pressure to a greater degree than the morning Euro but largely fail in the end. UKMO backs the morning Euro. 

Autumn has arrived. 

I think that is this mornings (00z) run.  The afternoon run (12z) holds the low pressure to the NW - the first chart in @Mark wheeler ‘s post above.

Shows there is considerable uncertainty…autumn could be delayed!

[Don]

9 minutes ago, Maz said:

I think that is this mornings (00z) run.  The afternoon run (12z) holds the low pressure to the NW - the first chart in @Mark wheeler ‘s post above.

Shows there is considerable uncertainty…autumn could be delayed!

Yeah, probably until December 1st?! 

[LRD]

37 minutes ago, Maz said:

I think that is this mornings (00z) run.  The afternoon run (12z) holds the low pressure to the NW - the first chart in @Mark wheeler ‘s post above.

Shows there is considerable uncertainty…autumn could be delayed!

This week hasn't felt like autumn has been delayed! Especially yesterday IMBY

Models have definitely reverted to a more unsettled type when compared to what was being shown a few days ago. But from the Wash down to Hampshire, SE-wards, it might not be that wet

GEM has been showing warm and dry weather for days and still does even though the warmth has been watered down (pardon the pun) even by them. What a win for that model if it turns out warm and dry for many next week. Odds against it has to be said

GEM 12z Ensembles

GFS

So dry with above average temps or rainy with above average temps

Edited September 21, 2023 by LRD

[LRD]

35 minutes ago, Don said:

Yeah, probably until December 1st?! 

Don't worry - spring starts very soon after on the 14th Dec... according to the CFS 6z! 

[Don]

26 minutes ago, LRD said:

Don't worry - spring starts very soon after on the 14th Dec... according to the CFS 6z! 

Bog off!! 

[TwisterGirl81]

1 hour ago, NewEra21 said:

Lovely end to the GFS 12z, if you like it cold. Won’t look anything like that next run, but that’s what gets me excited as we head deeper into autumn and into winter.

 

 

I could care less than to see these charts yet, can’t it wait until the end of October.

After the practically non existent spring and short summer we just had I was really happy to see high pressure and warmth forecast for next week and yet again it’s snatched away from us by yet more low pressure. The latest gfs run looks like a mixture of cool/mild but it looks predominantly wet… it’s the 21st September and here in Exeter we have already received 106mm which is nearly double average. And some weather sites indicating another 80mm to add to that next week which means we could even receive 300% average rainfall for September, next week was not needed frankly

While the rest of Europe continues with a pleasant and warm autumn, north west Europe has to face the wrath of wind and copious amounts rain.

I don’t mind colder stormy weather but after we’ve had a decent spring and summer which we haven’t this year 

 

[Mark wheeler]

All the 12z runs at 168 hours . Ukmo and the Gem look to build high pressure but the others do not to varying degrees. I would be surprised if the Gem is right however it is not completely without support. Lets see what the ECM ens say. Interesting to see what happens whatever the outcome. 
 

I have also seen that Nigel is holding together better than expected and will stay a hurricane for a little longer than expected. 

 

Edit , oh how can I forget , I forgot to add the mighty Navgem that also has high pressure taking control which probably puts an end to that idea

Edited September 21, 2023 by Mark wheeler

[ANYWEATHER]

A turbulent Ecm in picticular tonight, gone are the Indian summeresk charts earlier this week for the end of the month.....

[Penguin16]

On 17/09/2023 at 17:50, Penguin16 said:

In my opinion the high will be further south and conditions much more unsettled that currently pronged for that time frame. 

Wettest Autumn on record incoming. 

[Don]

1 minute ago, Penguin16 said:

Wettest Autumn on record incoming. 

Potentially warmest, too?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Wet autumns aren't unusual in El Nino years...especially the further into autumn we go.

We can probably expect troughing to reside over the UK further into October and November.

[Bristawl Si]

8 minutes ago, Don said:

Potentially warmest, too?

Hopefully

[SunnyG]

1 hour ago, Penguin16 said:

Wettest Autumn on record incoming. 

So, cr*ppy spring, summer AND autumn. Quite the record.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

29 minutes ago, SunnyG said:

So, cr*ppy spring, summer AND autumn. Quite the record.

Yes!!!!! 

[raz.org.rain]

I guess that's the cost of mild weather going into winter, it always comes with rain! I'm just hopeful we can go the whole period with no extremes and no SSW to ruin spring.