Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts

[Don]

5 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Hope it isn't as positive as 2019. Maybe we can get away with it if it isn't too positive.

2023

2019

Looks more positive at this stage in 2019 to me.

The IOD is not forecast to be as positive as 2019 (which I believe was record breaking?) and currently looks to edge back towards neutral by January.

[SollyOlly]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

A cold summer is a bad thing after a chilly winter and spring. 

I think that you're trying to be provocative (successfully!), but just a quick point. We haven't had a 'cold' summer, I can't remember the last one that we did have. Neither did we have a 'cold' winter last year (if only the first half of December had carried on!). As another poster has expressed it very well...if we get a front-loaded winter with a December as anomalously cold as June was hot, and then average/ slightly below average after that, many coldies will be very content.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

5 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

I don’t know why a mild winter is always a bad thing. A dry mild one would be ok, if we can’t have a cold crisp or snowy one.

For me it’s the rain that really makes things depressing for long periods of time.

I personally want seasons to feel seasonal as opposed to having the same temps throughout the year which I would find boring. Another problem with mild winters is that more often than not they are as dull as dishwater and generally unsettled. Though the chances of mild AND sunny do increase in February, which whilst nice I am not a fan of as I find that it often doesn't bode well for spring.

Edited August 28, 2023 by Weather Enthusiast91

[MP-R]

In the absence of a proper cold winter, I’d take a Dec 2001, Jan 2022, and a Feb 2019. Yes… sun gives me life! (There are also some bits and pieces of snow in there too imby).

[Don]

1 minute ago, MP-R said:

In the absence of a proper cold winter, I’d take a Dec 2001, Jan 2022, and a Feb 2019. Yes… sun gives me life! (There are also some bits and pieces of snow in there too imby).

I would have thought you would have chosen December 2022 over 2001, or did you have more snow in 2001?

[MP-R]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

I would have thought you would have chosen December 2022 over 2001, or did you have more snow in 2001?

I suppose if I were to split months, I’d take the first half of Dec 22 and second half Dec 01, but overall 01 was a nicer month as the second half of 22 was awful. The snow amounts were about the same.

[Don]

1 minute ago, MP-R said:

I suppose if I were to split months, I’d take the first half of Dec 22 and second half Dec 01, but overall 01 was a nicer month as the second half of 22 was awful. The snow amounts were about the same.

True, the cold was more evenly spread in December 2001 and the Christmas to New Year period was also cold with snow for some.  I saw very little snow during both months!

Edited August 28, 2023 by Don

[MP-R]

5 minutes ago, Don said:

True, the cold was more evenly spread in December 2001 and the Christmas to New Year period was also cold with snow for some.

Indeed. I’m not too bothered about January this time (selfishly) as I’m planning on escaping to Brazil. A Feb like 2019 would bring an epic snow dumping then an early taste of spring - two things I love!

[Don]

35 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Indeed. I’m not too bothered about January this time (selfishly) as I’m planning on escaping to Brazil. A Feb like 2019 would bring an epic snow dumping then an early taste of spring - two things I love!

I agree, the opening days of February 2019 were great.  However, I would say it bought an early taste of summer, rather than spring!

Edited August 28, 2023 by Don

[MP-R]

12 minutes ago, Don said:

I agree, the opening days of February 2019 were great.  However, I would say it bought an early taste of summer, rather than spring!

I suppose relatively it was yes, minus the sun strength, day length, and with nights that still feel to near freezing. 
 

Now I think if it, there was also thunder during the very brief Atlantic spell. The month really did have it all!

[Summer of 95]

57 minutes ago, Don said:

True, the cold was more evenly spread in December 2001 and the Christmas to New Year period was also cold with snow for some.  I saw very little snow during both months!

Late December 2001 did have some snow here (not a huge amount, but the snow on 30th lasted on the ground until January 5th). And it was a very frosty, sunny and dry month.

Feb 2019 had jack all snow here, the only lying snow I had that winter was a couple of cms from Cheshire gap showers on 22nd-23rd Jan. That was quite localised, for once this area got lucky, a lot of the Midlands I think had a winter without any snow cover at all.

Four years stand out for me as having a decent June followed by a rubbish July and August:

1992 and 2015 (both preceded virtually snowless winters)

2010 and 2017 (a combination of those two Decembers would be truly epic)

You could make a case for 1993 and 2000 (June was the best month of both, not as good as 2023 but the Julys were not as bad either). They both preceded average winters with most of the snow late on (Feb in 1994 and March in 2001).

[Dark Horse]

1 hour ago, Don said:

True, the cold was more evenly spread in December 2001 and the Christmas to New Year period was also cold with snow for some.  I saw very little snow during both months!

December 2001 was pretty seasonal. Lots of frost, sunny days and it was my first year of college. Had a few cm of snow at the tail end of the month here which lasted on the ground a few days. That was it for the winter though, I don't recall any snow in the January or February. The previous winter was better for snow. October 2000 was interesting waking up to a covering of snow one morning before school. Very early for the white stuff.

[Sunny76]

11 hours ago, Don said:

I didn't think summer was great, apart from June.  I would prefer mild and dry in winter to mild and wet, but wouldn't want either.

Coldies get plenty of stick during mild winters when they complain about the lack of cold and more so than people who moan about poor weather during the summer I would say!

I don’t agree with that. Plenty of people moan about the lack of cold even when it is cold. Unless it’s -1c with snow, the coldies will complain regardless. 

[Sunny76]

10 hours ago, SollyOlly said:

I think that you're trying to be provocative (successfully!), but just a quick point. We haven't had a 'cold' summer, I can't remember the last one that we did have. Neither did we have a 'cold' winter last year (if only the first half of December had carried on!). As another poster has expressed it very well...if we get a front-loaded winter with a December as anomalously cold as June was hot, and then average/ slightly below average after that, many coldies will be very content.

It might not have been a cold summer, but it certainly wasn’t a warm one either. 

[LetItSnow!]

15 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

I don’t know why a mild winter is always a bad thing. A dry mild one would be ok, if we can’t have a cold crisp or snowy one.

For me it’s the rain that really makes things depressing for long periods of time.

I’d rather a mild and wet winter than a mild and dry winter because you might as well make use of the rainfall to top up reservoirs etc

[Beanz]

45 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

I’d rather a mild and wet winter than a mild and dry winter because you might as well make use of the rainfall to top up reservoirs etc

Great, except our reservoirs are above the average levels for this time of year already.  Most are over 80% full, which for end of summer is pretty good.  

[LetItSnow!]

39 minutes ago, Beanz said:

Great, except our reservoirs are above the average levels for this time of year already.  Most are over 80% full, which for end of summer is pretty good.  

I meant in general. I like rain.  

[Dorsetbred]

5 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

I meant in general. I like rain.  

Time to move to Western Scotland or Wales!

[reef]

8 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

It might not have been a cold summer, but it certainly wasn’t a warm one either. 

As it stands, only the joint 24th warmest in 365 years. So, yes not warm at all. 

Its the equivalent of getting a winter the same as 1978/79 and not calling it cold.

Edited August 29, 2023 by reef

[Sunny76]

22 minutes ago, reef said:

As it stands, only the joint 24th warmest in 365 years. So, yes not warm at all. 

Its the equivalent of getting a winter the same as 1978/79 and not calling it cold.

This summer wasn’t warm. It was below par for sunshine, and wetter than normal. 

[Don]

12 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

I don’t agree with that. Plenty of people moan about the lack of cold even when it is cold. Unless it’s -1c with snow, the coldies will complain regardless. 

That's down to perception though.  For example, you felt last winter was a chilly one, but it was actually milder than average, despite having a few cold spells.  People will moan about the lack of cold during winter when temps are around 8-10C, because although that's not overly mild, it's not cold enough for snow either.

[Don]

21 hours ago, Summer of 95 said:

Late December 2001 did have some snow here (not a huge amount, but the snow on 30th lasted on the ground until January 5th). And it was a very frosty, sunny and dry month.

Feb 2019 had jack all snow here, the only lying snow I had that winter was a couple of cms from Cheshire gap showers on 22nd-23rd Jan. That was quite localised, for once this area got lucky, a lot of the Midlands I think had a winter without any snow cover at all.

Four years stand out for me as having a decent June followed by a rubbish July and August:

1992 and 2015 (both preceded virtually snowless winters)

2010 and 2017 (a combination of those two Decembers would be truly epic)

You could make a case for 1993 and 2000 (June was the best month of both, not as good as 2023 but the Julys were not as bad either). They both preceded average winters with most of the snow late on (Feb in 1994 and March in 2001).

Did you see much in the way of snow in December 2000 between Christmas and New Year, as I think many parts of the Midlands did quite well on the 27th/28th?

How much snow did you get during December 2010?  I remember you saying that you largely missed out, but I have a feeling that was the during the previous 09/10 winter?

[blizzard81]

We must be due an epic January cold spell - Surely.... I'll get mi coat

[lassie23]

Winter forecast 2023/2024: First in-depth Winter weather outlook and how the pressure patterns will develop under the strong El Nino event » Severe Weather Europe

WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

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A first look at the Winter 2023/2024 forecast for the United States, Canada, and Europe shows a strong influence of the growing El Nino event

Has this already been posted

[pinball wizard]

44 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

We must be due an epic January cold spell - Surely.... I'll get mi coat

We are here!!