Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

[ThomasD27]

22 minutes ago, Rufus Butterfield said:

Plenty signs of instability now

Just looking south over your way, a cumulus congestus seems to have popped up quickly

[Lt. Dan]

5 hours ago, DanN said:

Purely from a model watching point of view, I find today quite interesting to see how what may or may not develop...From a 4km WRF there is some potential showing in the 00z run but the model doesn't develop any significant convection (or precip alone!). There is an area of, perhaps weak, surface convergence in what could be a reasonable background environment. I need to try and plot the strength of the horizontal moisture convergence as I wonder, with a little more push, that could be an area to watch.    

6z WRF now produces what looks like a reasonably long lived storm, moving ~ENE from the area of surface convergence, perhaps some organisation to it as well. We shall see

 

Edited September 9, 2023 by DanN

[Rufus Butterfield]

3 minutes ago, Thomas Dicken said:

Just looking south over your way, a cumulus congestus seems to have popped up quickly

 

[Azazel]

I can definitely see something going bang in a big way later - my prediction would be somewhere around Sheffield 

[ChezWeather]

Just topped 31c here according to my station, towers bubbling up all around, I'm off to the football so will hopefully straight out of there at 5 ready to chase! 

[Rufus Butterfield]

well… my timelapse camera overheated

[Aiden2012]

Not the best picture but things are starting to happen

[Zak M]

Currently off to Lincoln. Hoping to get a decent storm or two

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Storms today sound likely to be quite intense but short-lived. Not an ideal chase scenario imo

[Sparkiee storm]

Quietly monitoring the skies and radar today so far, first shower in the SW Midlands, near the Welsh boarder. 

[Nantes storm factory]

2 hours ago, Supacell said:

I will be out and about chasing over the next couple of days. I've just forked out on a new vehicle though, so large hail isn't very welcome .

My thoughts are that I will stay local today. Its a low risk but high reward scenario, but that convergence zone looks to occur not far from here.

Tomorrow is now looking more like a trip northwards but still a lot of chopping and changing in the models.

Hoping to end the season with a bang and make 2023 a season a bit like a sandwich. Started well, ended well but with a 2 month chunk of cr@p in the middle.

I'll be looking towards the cannock,  Shrewsbury,  Hereford triangle for late this afternoon  

[minus10]

Well things are starting to happen here..

[Sprites]

Market Raisen could be a good area later.

[parhelion]

Ever growing...

[Rufus Butterfield]

sun blocked out now

[Sparkiee storm]

Starting to go up here too.

[congerball]

Looking forward to tomorrow

[LeeKay/]

I see recently TORRO has given a thunderstorm watch, issued 14:18 BST:

(I was going to post the map but please bear in mind this sites regulations)

The Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO)

WWW.TORRO.ORG.UK

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TORRO is a privately-supported research body specialising in severe convective weather in Britain and Ireland

 

Edited September 9, 2023 by LeeKay/
typo, corrected i think

[Sparkiee storm]

Something developing just East of Sheffield

Edited September 9, 2023 by Sparkiee storm

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Sparkiee storm said:

Something developing just East of Sheffield

Yep some towers going up just to my SE.

[The PIT]

Brewing a shower for someone to the NE of us. However there does seem to be a cap on it

[summer blizzard]

Yeah, looks less likely here now than earlier sadly so we need a trigger it seems.

[The PIT]

Looking mostly like a dead duck. The fat lady is out of the dressing room but has collapsed with heat exhaustion and is waiting for an ambulance.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Tomo is probably the day. Today is all about the stuff in the far SW a lot later on

[Rufus Butterfield]

oh wow this thing just popped out of nowhere