Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[Nick2373]

2 minutes ago, Drifter said:

 No it isn’t. 
it might be the first run you’ve seen, but GFS has been modelling a cold spell for a while now. 

How did that work out just the other day? there is no soiled cross model agreement for any cold spell, perhaps a few days of cooler conditions with intervals of warmer or just close to average weather     

[Dennis]

Canadian warming means first a displacement of the Vortex 

an ssw is poss in december but nothing is seen now .....decreasing zonal m/s  yes 

[winterof79]

GFS touted heights building from the Atlantic a while back and here we have ECM agreeing.(after some time)

Super charts for beginning of December.

But keep banging the drums if you insist

[Met4Cast]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Ahh yes, but I always mentioned the importance of the high around Svalbard and the link up - which is now being modelled. Look, it may be gone next run I’m just saying the models have been toying with the idea of cold to the U.K. and that has gained some momentum this morning - turning the odds more in coldies favour !! Over to the 06z run. 
 

Im a complete novice though, but that’s my take

I enjoy your posts so keep at it 

[ScottSnow]

Lots of bickering in here this morning. Nothing is going to be nailed synoptically yet.

In my view all we should be looking for is signs of a pattern change and to me all the models are showing that it will likely get colder soon. To what extent and how they differ of course, but that is to be expected at this stage.

Yes things can go pear shaped but I think the past few days have been a step in the right direction and that’s all we can ask for at the moment.

 

[cyclonic happiness]

IF that slack easterly were to come off next week, it would more than likely just pull a load of low cloud from the north sea, with temperatures of 4'c day and night an horrid, cold drizzle.

I'd rather stick with Atlantic weather!

[Dennis]

i had this posted on X about MJO ... the chart was made on 5 nov 

it helped alot to have some ideas for the winter phase 8-1 late november23

[nick sussex]

An extraordinary difference of opinion between the GFS and UKMO, ECM at just T48 hrs .

The GFS separates the low to the west which spawns a shortwave running north towards Greenland .

This then leaves the main low much further south at T60 hrs .

This then tracks slowly ese  allowing it to support high pressure to its n ne.

The Euros don’t have separation and take this further ne before it slowly edges se much further east .

[Weather vane]

Completely agree. We have now clearly entered a synoptic pattern change scenario compared to what most models were showing a week ago (GFS excepted). Exciting to see the potential now on offer.

[Mair Snaw]

We all know whats gonna happen here... at some point today the ECM and UKMO will go all in only for the GFS to drop a stinker of a run followed by much knicker wetting in here and toys coming out of prams.. and then at some point tomorrow we will get models coming together with a middle ground solution..

Of course i would love for all of the top models to just all go all in with winter wonderland charts but that would take the fun out of it all.

[Weather vane]

13 minutes ago, ScottSnow said:

Lots of bickering in here this morning. Nothing is going to be nailed synoptically yet.

In my view all we should be looking for is signs of a pattern change and to me all the models are showing that it will likely get colder soon. To what extent and how they differ of course, but that is to be expected at this stage.

Yes things can go pear shaped but I think the past few days have been a step in the right direction and that’s all we can ask for at the moment.

 

Completely agree. We have now clearly entered a synoptic pattern change scenario compared to what most models were showing a week ago (GFS excepted). Exciting to see the potential now on offer.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

41 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

At 168 the UKMO still looks loaded, with the heights heading up through Greenland!! 

Text book Atlantic block that is!

[mountain shadow]

32 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Thankfully the outsiders sometimes defy their long odds - hoping that’s the case here.

Amen to that.

Would be great to get a proper cold spell when the tele connections were saying doubtful. 

[Matty88]

To be honest I've noticed ALL model platforms tend to struggle with major pattern flips, it was obvious a few weeks ago nearly every model was intent on the continuation of barreling LP's in and a mobile set-up in a ''join the club'' fashion - however this set-up had become the norm for a number of weeks/month, really we should have anticipated a major flip at some point despite the background signals - a HP interlude was overdue and here it is. 

The above said  - this set-up for cold is far from nailed, but what is clear is there is a major pattern flip on the cards - at least in the medium turn. From recollection a cold NW Europe will most definitely influence our weather and the ensuing model battle ie cold/mild, I suspect in this instance cold will end up winning out for a time. Great model watching! 

[Derecho]

51 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

Spot on MShadow, its the first run and is being taken as a given it don't really help people who are learning or new to the model watching. 

Some credit should still go to the GFS here as it was the first to pick up on the northerly late this week, yes it shifted a bit further east but it wasn't far off. It was also the first to show heights building towards Svalbard and the other models are now also picking up on that.

The heights over Svalbard don't guarantee cold and a cold easterly isn't a certainty by any means. Too much uncertainty after Sunday remains but even the UKMO looks interesting at T168.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Good to see the snow row values increasing also!

[SLEETY]

56 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

In my twenty odd model watching experience,  if the UKMO model is not on board, then be afraid, very afraid.

It is the best model for handling of Atlantic energy.

It's always the last model to come aboard regarding Easterlies, it didn't want to know at all yesterday  so it's already moved towards an Easterly. 

Did this some years ago with the other models showing an Easterly but the UKMO had the high too far South until the last minute, it was miles out. 

Almost feel like the model has been programmed with a mild bias built into it,  nearly always seems to show the less cold option until it catches up. 

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, Derecho said:

Some credit should still go to the GFS here as it was the first to pick up on the northerly late this week, yes it shifted a bit further east but it wasn't far off. It was also the first to show heights building towards Svalbard and the other models are now also picking up on that.

The heights over Svalbard don't guarantee cold and a cold easterly isn't a certainty by any means. Too much uncertainty after Sunday remains but even the UKMO looks interesting at T168.

Not forgetting that amplified wave moving east across Canada . The UKMO in particular was flat upstream .

[northwestsnow]

Tremendous rubs this morning.

EC 00Z is beautiful  

[CoventryWeather]

12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Not forgetting that amplified wave moving east across Canada . The UKMO in particular was flat upstream .

I mean Met4Cast will say it's been poor due to the over-amplification, but regardless, it has picked up pattern changes quite well recently before others have.. 

That could be quite useful during this winter. 

[throwoff]

First time in a few years we have had a cross model agreement under +200 that something is brewing.

METO saying a crisp 6 degrees in my neck of the woods this time last year we had 13... 

 

[northwestsnow]

ECM  says welcome to December  don't forget you're gloves

[Met4Cast]

4 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:

I mean Met4Cast will say it's been poor due to the over-amplification, but regardless, it has picked up pattern changes quite well recently before others have.. 

That could be quite useful during this winter. 

It picked up the pattern change, yes, but there’s no denying it initially was well out with the amount of amplification. I don’t see why it’s an issue to point that out? 

The GFS is usually the first to ‘pick out’ a pattern change because it runs further than most other models and runs more frequently. 

Edited November 22, 2023 by Met4Cast

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters this morning, from T120 right through:

Looking across the timeframes, the striking thing is the dominance of the Atlantic ridge regime (purple border).  Only one +NAO blue border, that’s cluster 2 in the extended, the only hint at anything zonal.  The green -NAO of cluster 3 in the extended is also of note, this is the ‘sausage’ scenario, we’ve seen on a couple of GFS runs - but delayed in time compared to yesterday on the clusters at least.

For the rest of the time, Atlantic ridge is consistent, initially, the link up through to scandi and Russia is evident, but this gets cut off in the T192-T240 timeframe.  Here, cluster 3 builds heights into Greenland, cluster 2 retains this further south, cluster 1 in the middle.

Interestingly, no red borders (scandi block) suggesting that when heights build in that vicinity in the T120-T168 timeframe, it is as an extension of the Atlantic ridge, not a distinct feature.  

Edited November 22, 2023 by Mike Poole

[throwoff]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

It picked up the pattern change, yes, but there’s no denying it initially was well out with the amount of amplification. I don’t see why it’s an issue to point that out? 

I think you have fallen foul of the realists curse mate. Your posts thus far have been pretty on the money. 

Why people are calling you out just as it appears you are starting to support something cold brewing is beyond me though...