Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[Northwest NI]

A lot of what we are seeing is already within a range most of our chases never get to. 

[cyclonic happiness]

33 minutes ago, Ramp said:

If there’s a way for it to fail, the uk will find it.

it'll be a shortwave, which diverts the cold air east of us at the last minute.....it always happens

[swfc]

1 minute ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Actually, perfect for snow chances,  I would think due to low solar output ,and relatively warm SSTs ,creating instabilty and with Artic air becoming entrenched across the UK ,some folks on the coast may well see Thundersnow ,yes thunderSsnnnaaawww ! Gfs 12z, is a peach of a run for coldies up to the T+240 hrs and beyond.  Of course ,forecasting snow, saying where it will fall and where, is a mugs game, but next week is looking primed to kick off Winter in true style ,looking the best start to winter since 2010!

The 850s from norway etc are way to modified for late november sst wise. Solar output isnt changing that. Theres the ido to content with which is a bigger player 

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

The 850s from norway etc are way to modified for late november sst wise. Solar output isnt changing that. Theres the ido to content with which is a bigger player 

Why on Earth would it? 

[Ali1977]

GEFS Mean at T180 - taka a bow  

 

Vs the 06z clearly a better Greeny high and colder less messy flow from the NE 

Edited November 24, 2023 by Ali1977

[PiscesStar]

33 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yeah definitely, especially with any m snow cover looking forward to the ECM 

What time is the ECM due out? 

[January Snowstorm]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

GEFS Mean at T180 - taka a bow  

In fairness its a very good mean!

[Ali1977]

Just now, PiscesStar said:

What time is the ECM due out? 

1800 -1900 

[swfc]

4 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

Why on Earth would it? 

It was quoted

[PiscesStar]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

1800 -1900 

ALL eyes on that then lol would be excellent if the heights look stronger on that run

[Met4Cast]

Synoptically stunning. 

[Mcconnor8]

1 minute ago, PiscesStar said:

ALL eyes on that then lol would be excellent if the heights look stronger on that run

Would expect them to given every other model has but this is the UK so can never be sure...

[phil nw.]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GEFS Mean at T180 - taka a bow  

Yes signs of the bulk of the pv nudging around the block towards the Siberian side.

As long as the Greenland high holds the deeper cold will head south west into Europe/UK.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

There's little I can add to the fab comments you lot have already stated. But it looks promising very promising infact.

Remember the famous Jaws quote? We are are gonna need a bigger boat!

Well there's a chance that some of us maybe lacking the salt on our chips before much longer and yes...we could be needing a bigger table salt container

[tight isobar]

Cracking ensembles 12gfs- only a few stragglers now- the tight dropping clustering becoming very solid

[Spikey M]

I want a proper Friday night pub run tonight please.

[london-snow]

8 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

There's little I can add to the fab comments you lot have already stated. But it looks promising very promising infact.

Remember the famous Jaws quote? We are are gonna need a bigger boat!

Well there's a chance that some of us maybe lacking the salt on our chips before much longer and yes...we could be needing a bigger table salt container

I’m still awaiting yamkins update from Croydon council before getting drawn in  

[John Stevens]

Be interesting to see what @tight isobar is thinking here

[Shaunado]

Cracking synoptics today. I have to say I don't envy the pro weather forecasters jobs in such a marginally juicy set up. Rain? Sleet? Snow? How much? How cold? How long will the colder set up last? How do I convey the risks without the tabloids blowing it out of all proportions and context?

[CameronWS]

2 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

The North Sea is modifying this airmass a lot, you can really see that on the 12z ICON if you run the animation. Notice how a deeper sub -15C pool moves across Scandinavia, reaches the North Sea and just evaporates.

This is interesting because the charts make it look like it just wasn’t reaching! Will the cold that will be travelling over help to cool the sea temperatures so maybe the uppers are progressively less moderated if we can sustain the pattern?

2 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

The North Sea is modifying this airmass a lot, you can really see that on the 12z ICON if you run the animation. Notice how a deeper sub -15C pool moves across Scandinavia, reaches the North Sea and just evaporates.

This is interesting because the charts make it look like it just wasn’t reaching! Will the cold that will be travelling over help to cool the sea temperatures so maybe the uppers are progressively less moderated if we can sustain the pattern?

[SLEETY]

4 minutes ago, Shaunado said:

Cracking synoptics today. I have to say I don't envy the pro weather forecasters jobs in such a marginally juicy set up. Rain? Sleet? Snow? How much? How cold? How long will the colder set up last? How do I convey the risks without the tabloids blowing it out of all proportions and context?

Nightmare for forecasters later next week, blame the warm sea surrounding the UK otherwise it be snow for all , of course if uppers were below minus 10c no problem won't be long for that to happen if this pattern persists. 

[Mike Poole]

1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:

One question I have is how sustained can this blocking become? We know the teleconnective drivers aren't in favour of this but through what appears to be pure chance we've seen a wave-breaking event at the exact right time to throw up this high-latitude blocking.

Now.. with the likely return of an active jet into early December on the back of -AAM tendency & MJO transitioning phases 1/2/3. if blocking is somehow able to take a quasi-stationary residence to our north this may south shift the more active jet stream, we then see the Canadian warming kicking in which helps to reinforce any blocking. 

By mid December MJO should be cycling into more favourable blocking areas with a switch to +AAM tendency.. very, very interesting times.

Yes, very much my thinking, too.  We have a number things going for us rather than against us (as is usually the case) with this setup.  If at least some semblance of this pattern can hold until the resurgence in AAM provides reinforcements then it is more likely that the next wave of amplification will be in a favourable place - particularly if the European trough and cold pool remain in situ.  The Canadian warming should help avoid a return to zonal by virtue of keeping the trop vortex away from Canada and Greenland.  

2 minutes ago, CameronWS said:

This is interesting because the charts make it look like it just wasn’t reaching! Will the cold that will be travelling over help to cool the sea temperatures so maybe the uppers are progressively less moderated if we can sustain the pattern?

If this setup holds for even a couple of weeks, I don’t think SSTs will continue to be much of an issue.  

[captaincroc]

I'm sure some experts will confirm or not, but I'm sure the longer subzero uppers are above us -with minimal wind - the more they sink lower in the atmosphere, hence lower temperatures at the surface and lower Dew Points.  So if we have a slow low with minimal wind and minimal solar heating then the temps should get lower and lower and increase snow potential?

[MagicOtter]

Just looking at the Netweather forecast for the next couple of weeks here. Grey, occasionally damp dross. I'd settle for a decent frost, let alone some snow.

[PiscesStar]

1 minute ago, captaincroc said:

I'm sure some experts will confirm or not, but I'm sure the longer subzero uppers are above us -with minimal wind - the more they sink lower in the atmosphere, hence lower temperatures at the surface and lower Dew Points.  So if we have a slow low with minimal wind and minimal solar heating then the temps should get lower and lower and increase snow potential?

Makes logical sense to me and I would agree. This is what makes this hobby so exciting and SO addictive! Let's see if ECM comes out with upgrades