Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[Guest]

=So Far so good

[TSNWK]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Errr …..

anyway, gefs not as amplified to our west days 10/11 

Ordinary not bring amplified to the west I would take a negative for coldies long term.. however as I mused during the 12z op rolling the heights were far weaker into Greenland day 10 onwards but in our part of the world it was a far better run… wedged I guess.. just do many variations..

[northwestsnow]

Hopefully EC continues where it left off this morning.

No phasing drama required.

Apps now dropped to 2/3 deg by day wed onwards locally  ..

[Jacob]

13 minutes ago, IanT said:

Well.....that's one run from one model for one time on one day.

Interest here is being sustained by the wider wintery picture that is now visible with some consistency across models for an extended period, through the reliable forecast horizon and beyond.

I don't think anyone is anticipating widespread low-lying snow across the SE - that's a tough assignment in November - but this is a cracking start to the winter period in modelling terms.

Ah yes, the SE unironically misses out

[IanT]

2 minutes ago, Jacob said:

Ah yes, the SE unironically misses out

Misses out??? A beautiful winter day here today. I was out early with the dog, enjoying the cold clear air, the bright sunshine and the crunch of frost beneath my feet. I'm looking forward to a few of these days, and the models suggest this is a reasonable expectation. All good!

 

[london-snow]

6 minutes ago, Jacob said:

Ah yes, the SE unironically misses out

Can’t see why this poster you quoted has claimed this. It’s a evolving situation and imo there is plenty of opportunities into the south east going forward and not just a midlands north event. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

As an ‘overall’ pattern the Gfs is beautiful.   If we get a SSW on top of this hemispheric forcing….could be a very interesting winter indeed.

 

BFTP

[TSNWK]

Ecm 00z 108  hrs and this evenings ECM 96

Just now, TSNWK said:

Ecm 00z 108  hrs and this evenings ECM 96

Very little change.. so a positive I think.

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Neilsouth said:

GFS looks messy!! It's like it's struggling to get a handle on this and can be discounted for the time being

I completely agree. The model is quite incomprehensible tonight. T0 charts are rarely so complex. I wouldn't trust it.

There again, there are times when bizarre GFS run are a sign that a shift is coming in the modelling, so although I don't trust the run, I can't completely ignore it either.

Edited November 25, 2023 by Man With Beard

[PiscesStar]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

I completely agree. The model is quite incomprehensible tonight. T0 charts are rarely so complex. I wouldn't trust it.

There again, there are times when bizarre GFS run are a sign that a shift is coming in the modelling, so although I don't trust the tun, I can't completely ignore it either.

Let's see what tonight's runs have to say as the cold looks set to stay a while 

[joggs]

It was the GFS that first picked up on this change wasn't it?.

[Bricriu]

3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

As an ‘overall’ pattern the Gfs is beautiful.   If we get a SSW on top of this hemispheric forcing….could be a very interesting winter indeed.

 

BFTP

Is there any danger a ssw could end up shaking up the tropospheric pattern for the  worse.  Has this ever happened before while the troposphere  had a blocking pattern?

[January Snowstorm]

Uppers look colder on the ECM @ 96hrs

Good start sofar

[Met4Cast]

ECM is decidedly rejecting the GFS offering so that's good. Colder 850's too.

[TSNWK]

00z 132 12z 120think I preferred this mornings.. needs to get through on 144 and sit around like a bad smell

[Lukesluckybunch]

ECM pretty average at 120..not as good as UKMO!

[January Snowstorm]

Sadly the news is not good at 120hrs.

Uppers not cold enough, by quite a bit!!

[TSNWK]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

ECM pretty average at 120..not as good as UKMO!

Agree. Relatively speaking I was hoping for more movement towards europe

[Mcconnor8]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Sadly the news is not good at 120hrs.

Uppers not cold enough, by quite a bit!!

The colder uppers come after 120 when the low pulls them in from the east, UKMO wasn't too cold at 120 either

[tight isobar]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Sadly the news is not good at 120hrs.

Uppers not cold enough, by quite a bit!!

Forget the uppers it’s the jet profile- as the azores wants to poke its nose in..

[Met4Cast]

Can we please stop calling them "uppers".. 850hPa is about 1500m above the surface, there is a whole heap of atmosphere above that..

[tight isobar]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

Can we please stop calling them "uppers".. 850hPa is about 1500m above the surface, there is a whole heap of atmosphere above that..

They are still “ upper airs “ as they are above 2m. 

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

The colder uppers come after 120 when the low pulls them in from the east, UKMO wasn't too cold at 120 either

Only if it does pull east…. Don’t like these lows and phasing over us….

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Given its just emerging there certainly isn't a rush for such evolutions but great the path being discovered already 🌨

[joggs]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

Can we please stop calling them "uppers".. 850hPa is about 1500m above the surface, there is a whole heap of atmosphere above that..

I'm happy with uppers as they've been used for years in here.....