Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[Chesil View]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

the 6z ends in a power-house southwesterly

Seems to me the models are pushing any return of the Atlantic further and further back.

[Rob 79812010]

Models are already making me think colder Dec than 22. Prolonged cold with some very cool looking likely at least till around 10th. Quite new to model watching but think am right that could go on longer. Hope so anyway. Dec 10 temps probs a stretch though

8 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:

Models are already making me think colder Dec than 22. Prolonged cold with some very cool looking likely at least till around 10th. Quite new to model watching but think am right that could go on longer. Hope so anyway. Dec 10 temps probs a stretch though

Meant prolonged cold with some very cold

[Dignity]

Been a while since I posted. No charts to show here but a point I've been dwelling on for a while.

If this current episode of below normal temps across NW Europe starts to become more entrenched, the moderating factor of the North Sea SSTs become so much less of a chokehold on modulating the continental air coming across.

With the reload of the MJO coming into mid month, and assuming the cold pool to our NE maintains for a while longer, could we see a situation where a "marginal" cold spell for the British Isles starts to err into a more colder/snowier situation?

I've only the most limited of reads on charts etc and this is a bit of a point I'm putting out for debate by more experienced forum members.

Just an interesting train of thought I've got going on about where the evolution of this winter might go

[PiscesStar]

Just now, Dignity said:

Been a while since I posted. No charts to show here but a point I've been dwelling on for a while.

If this current episode of below normal temps across NW Europe starts to become more entrenched, the moderating factor of the North Sea SSTs become so much less of a chokehold on modulating the continental air coming across.

With the reload of the MJO coming into mid month, and assuming the cold pool to our NE maintains for a while longer, could we see a situation where a "marginal" cold spell for the British Isles starts to err into a more colder/snowier situation?

I've only the most limited of reads on charts etc and this is a bit of a point I'm putting out for debate by more experienced forum members.

Just an interesting train of thought I've got going on about where the evolution of this winter might go

I would have thought that it becomes less marginal as more cold becomes established over the UK and surrounding areas which are less cold. In summary more snow yes 

[Bricriu]

51 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Yep. I'm not a huge fan of the 06z gfs but the favourable changes happen relatively early on so it is quite promising. 

Why is  that. Do you think its less accurate than the other GFS runs?

[Hoghtonwhite]

1 minute ago, Dignity said:

Been a while since I posted. No charts to show here but a point I've been dwelling on for a while.

If this current episode of below normal temps across NW Europe starts to become more entrenched, the moderating factor of the North Sea SSTs become so much less of a chokehold on modulating the continental air coming across.

With the reload of the MJO coming into mid month, and assuming the cold pool to our NE maintains for a while longer, could we see a situation where a "marginal" cold spell for the British Isles starts to err into a more colder/snowier situation?

I've only the most limited of reads on charts etc and this is a bit of a point I'm putting out for debate by more experienced forum members.

Just an interesting train of thought I've got going on about where the evolution of this winter might go

Well, I always remember that during the freeze of 2010, it just kept upgrading once we were actually in the freeze. 
 

Yes the freeze was picked up by the models prior to the event but not to the extent it that it was. 
 

Quite often once the cold is in place, its upgrades galore. 

[Tim Bland]

This level of snow cover for the first week of Winter is quite something! Just shows our luck as well

[Jacob]

1 minute ago, Hoghtonwhite said:

Well, I always remember that during the freeze of 2010, it just kept upgrading once we were actually in the freeze. 
 

Yes the freeze was picked up by the models prior to the event but not to the extent it that it was. 
 

Quite often once the cold is in place, its upgrades galore. 

Why are you getting my hopes up for something that will likely never happen

[joggs]

16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

the 6z ends in a power-house southwesterly

Reset mode imo.

[Bricriu]

48 minutes ago, joggs said:

Tamara's informative post a few days ago did mention sliding lows coming into play.

Roger J Smith did speak about this too. He thinks the theme for much of this winter could be battleground scenarios. If that is the case let the boundary  be to the south of Ireland  and Cornwall!

[Tim Bland]

Just now, joggs said:

Reset mode imo.

How Long would it be until the next shot at a ridge though…

[TSNWK]

18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

the 6z ends in a power-house southwesterly

And upgrades nicely in early and mid range... I'll rather that than  the reverse  

Edited November 26, 2023 by TSNWK

[Hoghtonwhite]

1 minute ago, Jacob said:

Why are you getting my hopes up for something that will likely never happen

You just never know. We didn’t think we’d reach 40 degrees Celsius, but we did. (Only two years ago). Extremes are always possible and the weather will do it’s own thing sometimes regardless of what background signals are showing. 

[BartyHater]

18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

the 6z ends in a power-house southwesterly

Indeed, from bitter to barby in 48hrs. Will be extremely surprised if that happens, but...........

[That ECM]

Happy and intriguing.

[ANYWEATHER]

17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

the 6z ends in a power-house southwesterly

Im sure it did the same in the prolonged cold of late November/December 2010...six full weeks of cold...

[Wilxy]

Just thought I would share these charts to illustrate the uncertainty, and has a better understanding on what to expect come Thursday.

So here we have the ECM, showing the placement of lows within the ensemble suite at 1pm Thursday, as you can see it favours the low to are south so better snow risks.

GEM, has better agreement on where the low will be and also still to the south of the UK

GFS, far less certain on not only the placement of the low but also where it could end up, but you can see it is further north than the other scenarios.

 

But based on this I would assume the ECM and GEM have a better handle on the situation for Thursday, the GFS is known to blow up Lows compared to the other 2 models, but what a interesting start to winter we have been gifted with!

Edited November 26, 2023 by Wilxy

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Im sure it did the same in the prolonged cold of late November/December 2010...six full weeks of cold...

Indeed it did I’ll post the outs from 2010 later- with that notability.current output has all the signal as/ dyanamics for a similar poise.  @ cold extension.

Edited November 26, 2023 by tight isobar

[TSNWK]

to my eye gfs 06z is a warm  outlier on Thursday… so maybe upgrades on snow for all on the 12z and it’s right in the pack afterwards to December 4th.. so that’s good as well

Edited November 26, 2023 by TSNWK

[blizzard81]

13 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

Why is  that. Do you think its less accurate than the other GFS runs?

I do, along with the 18z.

[Shaunado]

3 minutes ago, Wilxy said:

Just thought I would share these charts to illustrate the uncertainly, and has a better understanding on what to expect come Thursday.

So here we have the ECM, showing the placement of lows within the ensemble suite at 1pm Thursday, as you can see it favours the low to are south so better snow risks.

GEM, has better agreement on where the low will be and also still to the south of the UK

GFS, far less certain on not only the placement of the low but also where it could end up, but you can see it is further north than the other scenarios.

 

But based on this I would assume the ECM and GEM have a better handle on the situation for Thursday, the GFS is known to blow up Lows compared to the other 2 models, but what a interesting start to winter we have been gifted with!

This has to be the weirdest cluster of LP centres I've ever seen! Thu could be amazing for some, although perhaps not IMBY. That said, my local MetO forecast is now showing rain to snow symbols!

[PiscesStar]

5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Indeed it did I’ll post the outs from 2010 later- with that notability.current output has all the signal as/ dyanamics for a similar poise.  @ cold extension.

Nice one tight isobar 

[Bricriu]

11 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

How Long would it be until the next shot at a ridge though…

Hopefully just in time for Christmas week the high migrates north westwards! I don't like the look  of the pv there but at least the bulk of it is away from Greenland. 

[Bradley in Kent]

Ah, heights, 850s, SSTs, wedges, DPs, marginal, getting the cold in, upgrades, Channel Runners, the M4, MJO, snow depth charts that'll never verify... 

Tell you what though, I love it!

❄❄❄

Edited November 26, 2023 by Bradley in Kent

[Isleofwightsnowgal74]

56 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The control is a belter fir the south - big snowfall 

As South as the Isle of Wight? I do feel for us we literally need a miracle set up to get snow down here? Assume it’s due to the sea? Any experts that can explain for me please?