Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[MP-R]

15 minutes ago, DJ Fart said:

They're not all little lows, it's a comparison of the likely position of the low per model, I think. 

Well if that’s the case, that makes a lot more sense!

[Big Gally]

Great to see the turn around since Friday. Hopefully it continues with upgrades today and folk come end of the week get their snow fix! ️

Edited November 26, 2023 by Big Gally

[swfc]

1 hour ago, Catacol said:

Much less cold chart to be fair. Too far out to be worth much attention, but roundabout this time is likely to see the relaxation phase. Provided that trough to the east holds out and keeps cold in place then all is good come the next amplification phase.

Yes a long way out and imo the nhp and projected synoptics does seem want to water down the temps /850s. Lots to come tho but a valid point

[rwtwm]

1 hour ago, Wilxy said:

Just thought I would share these charts to illustrate the uncertainty, and has a better understanding on what to expect come Thursday.

So here we have the ECM, showing the placement of lows within the ensemble suite at 1pm Thursday, as you can see it favours the low to are south so better snow risks.

GEM, has better agreement on where the low will be and also still to the south of the UK

GFS, far less certain on not only the placement of the low but also where it could end up, but you can see it is further north than the other scenarios.

 

But based on this I would assume the ECM and GEM have a better handle on the situation for Thursday, the GFS is known to blow up Lows compared to the other 2 models, but what a interesting start to winter we have been gifted with!

Really good use of the minimum chart there that never really occurred to me. It's effectively a Dalmatian plot when used like that.

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, BartyHater said:

Just watched the week ahead forecast on BBC and they were very bullish about any snow only being on the 'highest ground in the north' (not exactly sure whats meant by that), with daytime temps around 4-6c for most after tomorrow. Whilst it wasn't an in depth forecast I did expect them to mention Thursday's LP, the track of which could well deliver a decent amount of snow away from the highest ground in the north, at least according to several of the models.  Poor forecast or access to more in-depth info? Time I guess will tell.

Well assuming EC det is close

the uppers look decent certainly through Thursday anywhere north of Birmingham has a  chance surely .

I'm sure others more knowledgeable will correct me ..

Edited November 26, 2023 by northwestsnow

[BartyHater]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Well assuming EC det is close

the uppers look decent certainly through Thursday anywhere north of Birmingham has a  chance surely .

I'm sure others more knowledgeable will correct me ..

That's pretty much how I see it....nothing guaranteed at this stage, but considering the risk I did expect them to at least mention it.  

[Gregulator]

Off topic, but just to say I bloody love this forum. So many knowledgeable people on here from whom I continue to learn so much from. I did have a list of jobs I was meant to do today...not going too well with that! Anyway back to the models..keep 'em rolling and eyes down looking!,,

[PiscesStar]

2 minutes ago, Gregulator said:

Off topic, but just to say I bloody love this forum. So many knowledgeable people on here from whom I continue to learn so much from. I did have a list of jobs I was meant to do today...not going too well with that! Anyway back to the models..keep 'em rolling and eyes down looking!,,

LOL yes let's keep those peepers wide open for subsequent upgrades lol

[Blessed Weather]

The posts discussing the BBC forecasts and how they arrive at their forecasts have been moved to the following thread:

 

[Mcconnor8]

ECM 06z was an upgrade on the 0z, slightly better amplification to Greenland and colder 850s on Thursday.

[Battleground Snow]

Mogreps still pretty  cold right out till the 4th.

ECM control has shifted the low a little further south too at 108.

Great catching up with the last few pages this afternoon... Great enthusiasm from many posters keep it up!

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Mogreps still pretty  cold right out till the 4th.

ECM control has shifted the low a little further south too at 108.

Great catching up with the last few pages this afternoon... Great enthusiasm from many posters keep it up!

Was just bout to mention same thing!op and control take things south!!let us enjoy this ride!!

[Paul_1978]

4 hours ago, Anthony Burden said:

Morning all,interesting week coming up fax charts show how complicated and messy it is,regarding the white stuff well I’m sure some parts of the UK will undoubtedly get some and cold will be the theme for all so nothing to complain about.The longer term prospects as I mentioned before in my blog is very dependent on blocking to our north/northwest that might decrease a little but possibly only for a very short time,the proof is in the pudding of course.

Where can we find your blog?

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Was just bout to mention same thing!op and control take things south!!let us enjoy this ride!!

Left high and dry. The highest snow risk for many, reducing. Still don’t understand the logic of snow fans being happy with that.

[Northwest NI]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Left high and dry. The highest snow risk for many, reducing. Still don’t understand the logic of snow fans being happy with that.

It’s been explained a few times by people. We’d rather be patient with the cold and wait for snow that isn’t battleground or borderline. At the end of the day it’s just a different preference to yours. Best wishes.

[MattStoke]

7 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

It’s been explained a few times by people. We’d rather be patient with the cold and wait for snow that isn’t battleground or borderline. At the end of the day it’s just a different preference to yours. Best wishes.

Which will not happen with this setup, especially this early in the season. 

Low land snow will not happen from showers with this airmass. You’re going to be waiting weeks for hemispheric conditions to be right for that, by which time it’s likely this cold pattern for north west Europe will be gone.

And this is not me showing ‘imbyism’ (which no-one has a problem with when it’s from people in the far south exclaiming that we should all want ‘X’). It is possible to get snow showers where I am from this setup (Although even here it’s marginal) because I don’t live in a low lying area.

Edited November 26, 2023 by MattStoke

[Nick2373]

8 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Which will not happen with this setup, especially this early in the season. 

Seems that expiations override the outlook during the silly season, The usual cravat's apply high elevations will see some snow with cold rain/sleet confined to lower levels and costal areas. 

Edited November 26, 2023 by Nick2373

[Battleground Snow]

10 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Left high and dry. The highest snow risk for many, reducing. Still don’t understand the logic of snow fans being happy with that.

Yeh it's an incredibly narrow range to draw in the easterly flow off the continent while still maintaining the precipitation, the gem was quite close to doing this, the low intensified just as it moved to the south of the UK and drew in a strong easterly flow, 

[sheikhy]

14 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Left high and dry. The highest snow risk for many, reducing. Still don’t understand the logic of snow fans being happy with that.

Yes let me tell you now in regards to the snow i wont be happy but in terms of stayin cold i take it for now!!!probably change again anyway for next week!!

[Northwest NI]

7 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Which will not happen with this setup, especially this early in the season. 

Low land snow will not happen from showers with this airmass. You’re going to be waiting weeks for hemispheric conditions to be right for that, by which time it’s likely this cold pattern for north west Europe will be gone.

And this is not me showing ‘imbyism’ (which no-one has a problem with when it’s from people in the far south exclaiming that we should all want ‘X’). It is possible to get snow showers where I am from this setup (Although even here it’s marginal) because I don’t live in a low lying area.

All of which is fine as your preference. Personally prefer no snow to wet slushy snow that’s melting as soon as it stops falling. We had several inches of snow last January in an otherwise forgettable winter. It hung around for 5 days without melting. That’s what I’m after.

[MattStoke]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Yes let me tell you now in regards to the snow i wont be happy but in terms of stayin cold i take it for now!!!probably change again anyway for next week!!

Looks to stay cold regardless of what that low does. Not yet seen a model run that shows that low clearing away the cold air and breaking things down.

[Kasim Awan]

I see good potential for evaporative cooling based snow line lowering to ground level from the slider on Thursday. The potential is there for a similar event to 10th December 2017. Looking at the hires are in agreement with this. We need intensity and general good structure and strength to the front to allow for optimal cooling and good precipitation totals of atleast 10mm+ to see optimal cooling. Those are our requirements however the starting soundings are there for a nice event to lower levels. 2-7cm widely is possible if precipitation structure and intensity is optimal. If the front is far enough south then snow may fall with very little evaporative cooling.

Edited November 26, 2023 by Kasim Awan

[MattStoke]

4 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

All of which is fine as your preference. Personally prefer no snow to wet slushy snow that’s melting as soon as it stops falling. We had several inches of snow last January in an otherwise forgettable winter. It hung around for 5 days without melting. That’s what I’m after.

That just won’t happen from this spell.

Fair enough if you’d rather it stays dry but for anyone wishing for snow from this spell and not living up a hill, they really need to take their chances from that low. Or any other low that tries to push in further down the line.

[Mark wheeler]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I see good potential for evaporative cooling based snow line lowering to ground level from the slider on Thursday. The potential is there for a similar event to 10th December 2017. Looking at the hires are in agreement with this. We need intensity and general good structure and strength to the front to allow for optimal cooling and good precipitation totals of atleast 10mm+ to see optimal cooling. Those are our requirements however the starting soundings are there for a nice event to lower levels. 2-7cm widely is possible if precipitation structure and intensity is optimal.

Something like this ?

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

Something like this ?

That will move a hundred times between now and then however yeah. The further south the front, the colder the air mass so better for low level prospects.