Storms and Convective discussion - November 2023 onwards

[The Tall Weatherman]

Tomorrow does look seriously interesting . I’m no expert but Lightning wizard shows through the roof values of 0-3km SRH and strong 0-6km shear locally in excess of 50kts which could support tornadic development. This risk is widespread across Parts of East Ireland and into Central and eastern England due to a potential embedded storms and particularly a potential squall line tracking from Wales to Eastern England during the morning hours between 7am-11am.

Torro also has seen some Threat for tomorrow which I will put below:

TORRO DISCUSSION:

A rapidly deepening Atlantic low, named Storm Debi, will move into the RoI and N Ireland overnight. The frontal system will cross the area after midnight and through Monday morning (as well as much of the rest of the UK and RoI). Very high winds associated with the low will affect parts of the RoI, and portions of the UK, catered for by warnings from the national weather services in both jurisdictions. 

This forecast is concerned with the risk of one or two tornadoes, associated with the passage of the cold front of the system. A surge of dry mid and upper level air will overspread the front through the second half of tonight and into Monday morning, associated with a pronounced upper trough. Strong lifting associated with this should cool mid-levels enough to allow convection to develop - perhaps as a strongly forced line over the RoI into SE N Ireland, and then a more broken line into Wales/N England and points east.

Strong shear, both deep layer and low level, will be present, enough for a few storms to become organised, perhaps with low-topped supercells. The very high low-level shear may allow for the development of a few tornadoes. The highest chance would appear to be in a line from SW RoI, through parts of mid/N Wales into the Midlands and eastern England, near the triple point of the system. However, the box is somewhat larger, just to cater for the chance of development elsewhere.

Additionally, strong straight-line gusts are possible too, associated with convection (as well as with the gradient flow from the storm, as mention above). Occasional CG lightning is possible too.

Finally, a few incidences of hail cannot be ruled out, especially with stronger cells - perhaps close to severe levels in one or two places. 

 

[Shaunado]

Tomorrow (Tuesday) has also raised the Met Office's eyebrows, this time for a squally band of thundery rain in southern counties.

Here's the yellow warning  

[TropicThunder]

2 hours ago, Shaunado said:

Tomorrow (Tuesday) has also raised the Met Office's eyebrows, this time for a squally band of thundery rain in southern counties.

Here's the yellow warning  

Yes that's piqued my interest, not getting my hopes up though.

[Thunders]

So that’s what this is meant  to be…

[ChannelThunder]

Can't see there being a whole lot of lightning, if any, with that little squall. Maybe I'm missing something 

[ChannelThunder]

That squall now basically misses the south coast entirely on the latest UKV, which is in line with the lower res models. Dare I say the MO warning already looks daft?

Edited November 13, 2023 by ChannelThunder

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, ChannelThunder said:

Can't see there being a whole lot of lightning, if any, with that little squall. Maybe I'm missing something 

Lol, missing lots apparently, itv meridian mentioned small tonadoes and water spouts with the squall, I almost spat out my tea with surprise, never heard it mentioned in advance by them , ever lol.

[Mapantz]

The last couple of UKV runs have pushed the majority of it in to France. 

[ChannelThunder]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

The last couple of UKV runs have pushed the majority of it in to France. 

...yet the warning area goes all the way up to St Albans! I suspect that'll quickly get cancelled early on tomorrow 

[Eagle Eye]

Sorry, won't be able to get a forecast out for today. 

[TropicThunder]

Well that was a pretty poor forecast by the MO, just a mass of heavy rain, no thunderstorms or squall lines!

[Tamsin]

The Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO)

WWW.TORRO.ORG.UK

---

TORRO is a privately-supported research body specialising in severe convective weather in Britain and Ireland

they don't seem excited about tonight but nonetheless it's November 

 

 

[alexisj9]

8 minutes ago, Tamsin said:

The Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO)

WWW.TORRO.ORG.UK

---

TORRO is a privately-supported research body specialising in severe convective weather in Britain and Ireland

they don't seem excited about tonight but nonetheless it's November 

 

 

Didn't even know there'd be wind and rain tonight lol.

[ChannelThunder]

Well, 2023 won't be one to remember for storms, at least down here. Probably the joint-worst year, along with 2020, for me.

2022's plume events only occured in the Spring and Autumn, and this year was even worse, with a measley, messy & windy one in September where the majority of lightning activity evaded this little island. 

I make that just two plume events that have hit this area during the core summer months over the last four years. The disappointing trend continues, even more strongly now. 

Let's just say, I feel very justified getting out of here to see some action in Arizona this year!

Edited November 21, 2023 by ChannelThunder

[Metwatch]

On 21/11/2023 at 09:08, ChannelThunder said:

Well, 2023 won't be one to remember for storms, at least down here. Probably the joint-worst year, along with 2020, for me.

2022's plume events only occured in the Spring and Autumn, and this year was even worse, with a measley, messy & windy one in September where the majority of lightning activity evaded this little island. 

I make that just two plume events that have hit this area during the core summer months over the last four years. The disappointing trend continues, even more strongly now. 

Let's just say, I feel very justified getting out of here to see some action in Arizona this year!

Interesting how 150 miles between us makes a huge difference!

2020 and 2023 were by far my favourite years, lovely home grown storms in June both years, but 2021 was seriously lacking for anything thundery of note, just a weak storm in May and October that year, both of which I couldn't get the opportunity to capture them.

For 2022 it took until September for the action to begin, with also a mostly thunderless summer. Hopefully 2024 delivers more in terms of widespread plume events like July 2019!

[The Tall Weatherman]

I really do recommend reading the latest track and damage review of the Jersey Tornado by Torro. It’s astonishing to see this tornado destroyed houses, threw oil tanks and cars 30+ meters away, buried sticks deep into walls, carried metal 1.4km only to be wrapped completely around a tree and in one circumstance there was a concrete slab lifted 30 meters.

It’s amazing to think this Tornado is the Equivalent of a High end EF2 and Low end EF3 in America. This tornado will sure live on as one of the UK’s strongest this decade.
 

https://www.torro.org.uk/pdf/SI/SI20231101_Jersey_SupplementaryDamageIndicators.pdf

[WeatherArc]

42 years ago yesterday! 

Does anyone know if any form radar imagery exists for this event? Im guessing not but would love to see if there is anything relating to it.

[A Face like Thunder]

I can't help here, but what an exciting year1981 proved to be weather-wise. We had the thunderstorm which turned the day into night in London & the SE of England on 6th August 1981, with copious rainfall in the NW, and December 1981 was the snowiest Dec of the 20th century, and I'm glad to say I experienced both although not the events of 23rd November.   

[Metwatch]

Impressive roll cloud in Norfolk this morning. 

 

Edited November 29, 2023 by Metwatch

[Windblade]

Well, this year has been really poor from a storms point of view for my area. I've had about 6 VERY weakly electrified storms maybe 1 or two rumbles, and any flashes all IC, no forks at all. This is despite massive cells coming right over and dumping loads of water, but there just seems to have been hardly any triggering mechanism this year for us. Hoping for better things next storm season.

Now...saying that, I do hope we get some Thundersnow this winter!  I've been incredibly lucky to have experienced it twice in my life. It's so unreal feeling, having lightning right overhead/nearby but no sound (the snow has a natural sound dampening effect). A truly beautiful sight to behold. Wishing everyone a great winter. 

Edited December 1, 2023 by Windblade

[Shaunado]

Yeah not the best for Kent storms this year, but managed 9 thunder days in the end, of which perhaps only 1 or 2 were noteworthy.

For comparison, 2022=14, 2021=16, 2020=10

[Thunders]

6 hours ago, Windblade said:

Well, this year has been really poor from a storms point of view for my area. I've had about 6 VERY weakly electrified storms maybe 1 or two rumbles, and any flashes all IC, no forks at all. This is despite massive cells coming right over and dumping loads of water, but there just seems to have been hardly any triggering mechanism this year for us. Hoping for better things next storm season.

Now...saying that, I do hope we get some Thundersnow this winter!  I've been incredibly lucky to have experienced it twice in my life. It's so unreal feeling, having lightning right overhead/nearby but no sound (the snow has a natural sound dampening effect). A truly beautiful sight to behold. Wishing everyone a great winter. 

Same here, having thunder isn’t unheard of here too. I remember when I was about 4 or 5 a lighting stick hit outside our house on the road when it was snowing. All I can remember was that it was very loud

[Metwatch]

Kent seeing some storms on the first day of winter!

[convector]

Supercell near the lake district causing continuous snowfall. Decent amount of lighting off it too - anyone got pics? (socials on radar dont seem to working anymore)

Looks like only the southern half of the lakes are affected currently, but the metoffice have issued an amber warning for the whole area. 

[convector]

@The Tall Weatherman oh you disagree? why not say anything then? 

Its still in the same place, producing lighting an hour later. You dont think its a supercell?