Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

[Mapantz]

1304.2mm of rain for the year now.

[raz.org.rain]

22 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

That's also very plausible.

Another one that gained a lot of traction at COP28 this year (not that any of the world leaders there are paying any notice of course) was a collapse in the Subpolar Gyre. Apparently in 2014 an abrupt change was noted and its been since then that we keep getting unusually hot heatwaves even in otherwise really mild and wet years. 2003 and 2006 of course happened before this but those were also in very dry periods more consistent with the previous wet/dry pseudocycle model. A hypothesised effect of a weakening or collapse of the SPG is the northward movement of the jet stream which would certainly explain a lot.

I believe that would also be a principle force in the expansion of the Hadley cells.

IIRC, in the mid-term after a hypothesised AMOC collapse, an expansion of the Hadley cells would also be expected, which would likely act as a counter to the overall high lat cooling expected from the circulation collapsing and would further aridify our climate synergistically with the weakened Altantic signal from the collapse.

The AMOC subject is a strange one. It used to frighten me, which is probably what pushed me to really dig deeper into the subject. With the way it's reported by the media you'd think that a slowdown or collapse would plunge us into a new ice age. But ironically, an abrupt cooling of the North Atlantic does promote very hot and dry summer conditions across Europe. 2018 was a prime example of how extreme the weather can get with a weaker or absent AMOC under modern GhG conditions. Given our modern day climatic synoptics, I would say that widespread cooling is practically impossible with an AMOC slowdown or collapse, the conditions for cooling simply don't exist. The cooling theory was heavily influenced by paleoclimatology using proxy data from eras such as the Younger Dryas, which are not comparable to our current situation as such periods saw much of the northern hemisphere already covered by large continental ice sheets, which allowed for glacial encroachment and deeper ice age conditions. Meanwhile today, the Arctic is rapidly warming and loosing its albedo.

 

I kind of wish I'd studied climatology at uni but alas, I'm happily done with the stresses of higher education.

 

edit: forgot to mention, the cold-ocean-hot-summer feedback effect was documented and discussed by Schenk et al. 2018

Edited December 27, 2023 by raz.org.rain
why does christmas pudding correct to Christmas pudding

[raz.org.rain]

The tiniest patch of blue after a day of intense rain and dullness.

[CryoraptorA303]

4 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

The AMOC subject is a strange one. It used to frighten me, which is probably what pushed me to really dig deeper into the subject. With the way it's reported by the media you'd think that a slowdown or collapse would plunge us into a new ice age. But ironically, an abrupt cooling of the North Atlantic does promote very hot and dry summer conditions across Europe. 2018 was a prime example of how extreme the weather can get with a weaker or absent AMOC under modern GhG conditions. Given our modern day climatic synoptics, I would say that widespread cooling is practically impossible with an AMOC slowdown or collapse, the conditions for cooling simply don't exist. The cooling theory was heavily influenced by paleoclimatology using proxy data from eras such as the Younger Dryas, which are not comparable to our current situation as such periods saw much of the northern hemisphere already covered by large continental ice sheets, which allowed for glacial encroachment and deeper ice age conditions. Meanwhile in the christmas pudding, the Arctic is rapidly warming and loosing its albedo.

 

I kind of which I'd studies climatology at uni but alas, I'm happily done with the stresses of higher education.

 

edit: forgot to mention, the cold-ocean-hot-summer feedback effect was documented and discussed by Schenk et al. 2018

It is very badly reported in the media, as with most things. The quality of which something that you know about is reported is an indicator for the quality of everything else it reports about. Few things irritate me more than the media reporting about the "gulf stream" collapse

It's been known for a while now in academic circles that the main impact of AMOC collapse on Europe is the drying of the climate it would cause, not the change in temperatures. The reduction in summer precipitation, and the loss of a strong storm season in the autumn, would be very bad news to current crop regimes in western Europe.

Much of the actual cooling takes place at high latitude, and south of Scotland the overall average decline in temperatures after a few decades is less than one degree. Of course, we would be subject to a much more powerful northerly regime in winter and we'd have colder winters than now, but as you point out, this would also be highly likely to translate to much warmer summers as well. It's no coincidence that a lot of classic summers (1947, 1995) also had very notable winters to some extent or another. Even last year after the extremely hot summer, we had the most significant December cold snap since 2010. The common theme is a weak Atlantic signal and persistent blocking.

With a weakening jet stream, north shifting Hadley cells and a loss of a mild atlantic, as well as the raw warming from the runaway climate change itself, Europe's summers would likely become very hot at an explosive pace, with a 2018-like summer being the norm. The main theme of a reduced westerly signal would be the continentalisation of the European climate, with the seasonal extremes becoming more pronounced.

I have also noted the connection between ocean temperatures and continentinaility for some time now - Quite often a cooling of the Altantic leads to prolonged dry periods. Oftentimes El Nino springs are dry and sunny due to the cooling effect on the Atlantic. The Atlantic can also cool during multi-year La Ninas and this usually leads to our most notable heatwaves.

One thing to also note here is the NH glaciation was largely initiated due to the opening of the Drake Passage, which began the modern thermohaline circulation in the Atlantic, and despite the mildening effect, the significant humidification it had on the European-North Atlantic climate allowed for the growth of the glaciers. Removing the circulation then would likely have the opposite effect.

[Summer Sun]

Police Scotland have declared a major incident on the A9 in the Scottish Highlands following heavy snow.

[SunnyG]

6 hours ago, andy989 said:

Saw this on Facebook, completely different world up in parts Scotland at the moment 

Glencoe

Glenshee 

 

 

Rather them than me. But seriously, poor people

 

 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

2 hours ago, raz.org.rain said:

The tiniest patch of blue after a day of intense rain and dullness.

Lucky...

Was black as sin from dawn to dusk here, as it has been for about 97% of this month

 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

2 hours ago, Catbrainz said:

When would you folks say that cloudy and we weather tends to be warmer than sunny weather? For my area I would say Nov-Jan. Oct still has solid day length and solar strength and Feb again higher sun angle and longer days combined with colder sea temps- 

Nov to Feb probably. 

Don't really think the sun has any sort of strength to really feel the warmth until March imo. 

[East Lancs Rain]

After a colder and drier day yesterday (which was supposed to be sunny but wasn’t really) it has been yet another cloudy and windy day, with periods of rain. High 11°C. So monotonous. I honestly don’t know how anyone can prefer this to what we had in the summer.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Underwhelming EC 12Z, no cold at all on there before 240, been here many times before, where any cold is beyond 240

Edited December 27, 2023 by I remember Atlantic 252

[I remember Atlantic 252]

cannot post in model thread!

[East Lancs Rain]

3 hours ago, Mapantz said:

1304.2mm of rain for the year now.

Exactly the same here in Lancashire, according to the nearest weather station to me. http://www.higham-weather.com/
 

Although I live in a wetter part of the country than you, so 1300 mm is closer to average here. Still wetter than average though. Only 1040 hrs of sun as well, which is below average (average is around 1200 hrs per year I think).

 

It’s not been the best year for weather. The only decent months here have been May, June and September.

2 hours ago, SunnyG said:

 

 

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

aye

Only good news is at least the days ares gradually getting longer now. Can’t wait for March when the sun won’t set until 6 pm and we get some sunny days in the double digits (usually). Only 2 months and 4 days to go!

[Polar Maritime]

8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

cannot post in model thread!

How come? 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, East Lancs Rain said:

Exactly the same here in Lancashire, according to the nearest weather station to me. http://www.higham-weather.com/
 

Although I live in a wetter part of the country than you, so 1300 mm is closer to average here. Still wetter than average though. Only 1040 hrs of sun as well, which is below average (average is around 1200 hrs per year I think).

 

It’s not been the best year for weather. The only decent months here have been May, June and September.

 

Only good news is at least the days ares gradually getting longer now. Can’t wait for March when the sun won’t set until 6 pm and we get some sunny days in the double digits (usually). Only 2 months and 4 days to go!

the aye was a test, as my post was rejected in model thread, seeing if I could post here

[Summer of 95]

Although the second half has certainly had a lot of rubbish we seemed to have relatively escaped this month compared to further south, where it does look to have been horribly dull. At least this December has produced lying snow (2022 didn't) and it is already 10 hours sunnier than the disgusting December 2021. So not the worst December ever by any means.

Having said that, aside from the hot week in early September and the colder spell in late Nov and early Dec, it does seem to have been largely dominated by cloud, rain and wind since the end of June. Unless it is remarkably sunny the next 4 days we will have had 4 out of the last 6 months both wetter and cloudier than average, and none both drier and sunnier (August just made it as drier and November as sunnier). That's what I think is getting so many people down to be honest.

[Sun Chaser]

1 hour ago, Summer of 95 said:

Although the second half has certainly had a lot of rubbish we seemed to have relatively escaped this month compared to further south, where it does look to have been horribly dull. At least this December has produced lying snow (2022 didn't) and it is already 10 hours sunnier than the disgusting December 2021. So not the worst December ever by any means.

Having said that, aside from the hot week in early September and the colder spell in late Nov and early Dec, it does seem to have been largely dominated by cloud, rain and wind since the end of June. Unless it is remarkably sunny the next 4 days we will have had 4 out of the last 6 months both wetter and cloudier than average, and none both drier and sunnier (August just made it as drier and November as sunnier). That's what I think is getting so many people down to be honest.

Even worse down south. Somehow it's been EVEN DULLER than December 2021 which I thought was an impossible benchmark??? but here we are. No snow either compared to 2022 which did, though I wasn't in London at the time so didnt get any. So wet as well!!

It's genuinely been as freakishly mild as 2015 since around Dec 7th. 2023 now the second wettest year of the century behind only 2012 I think

[CryoraptorA303]

Looks like we might get a cold snap in the second week of January, some notable accumulation if we're lucky and then it'll probably be back to mild and we'll be setting daily records in late January a la February 2021.

I really wouldn't be getting hooked on the hopium at this point, this happens almost every year. There is merely the suggestion that we could see some colder weather around the second week of January at this point.

Of course, staying positive is a good thing, and we're in a better position right now than at many points in the last few years, but if I'm being honest, I'll believe it when I see it. As for hopes of prolonged cold i.e. more than a week of below average temps, I'd be really tempted to say the chances of seeing that this January are virtually zero.

Edited December 27, 2023 by CryoraptorA303

[CryoraptorA303]

2 hours ago, Summer of 95 said:

Although the second half has certainly had a lot of rubbish we seemed to have relatively escaped this month compared to further south, where it does look to have been horribly dull. At least this December has produced lying snow (2022 didn't) and it is already 10 hours sunnier than the disgusting December 2021. So not the worst December ever by any means.

Having said that, aside from the hot week in early September and the colder spell in late Nov and early Dec, it does seem to have been largely dominated by cloud, rain and wind since the end of June. Unless it is remarkably sunny the next 4 days we will have had 4 out of the last 6 months both wetter and cloudier than average, and none both drier and sunnier (August just made it as drier and November as sunnier). That's what I think is getting so many people down to be honest.

 

38 minutes ago, Sun Chaser said:

Even worse down south. Somehow it's been EVEN DULLER than December 2021 which I thought was an impossible benchmark??? but here we are. No snow either compared to 2022 which did, though I wasn't in London at the time so didnt get any. So wet as well!!

It's genuinely been as freakishly mild as 2015 since around Dec 7th. 2023 now the second wettest year of the century behind only 2012 I think

If it's any consolation, excessively wet years almost never come in twos. 2000 and 2001 I think are among the only examples ever where two years in a row were significantly wetter than average, and maybe 2020 and 2021 as well although the wet only really set in after September in 2020 and spring had been extremely dry. Similarly after July it significantly dried up and after that, apart from October and February every month until September 2022 was drier than average. 2013 after 2012 was drier than average, and 2016 became very dry after June. And of course after the 1999-2002 trio we had 2003, although I'd prefer not to repeat that one . Going off the past however many years of records, next year will almost certainly be at least considerably less wet than this year. It may take a while to set in though.

I always find myself sometimes questioning if it's really been that dull, but then I remember that I'm in Kent which is one of the sunniest parts of the UK and we tend to avoid the very dullest of dull, although this December has been really dull even for us. Reminds me of 2015 to be honest.

Edited December 27, 2023 by CryoraptorA303

[andreas]

I'm reduced to occasionally checking into the BBC website forecast - the excitement mounts, sleet at day 14!

 

[CryoraptorA303]

Just now, andreas said:

I'm reduced to occasionally checking into the BBC website forecast - the excitement mounts, sleet at day 14!

 

Yeah, that thread baffles me sometimes. Too full of hopium for my liking.

[raz.org.rain]

Seeing predictions of a cold spell "lasting into spring" was not something I enjoyed seeing today.

[CryoraptorA303]

1 minute ago, raz.org.rain said:

Seeing predictions of a cold spell "lasting into spring" was not something I enjoyed seeing today.

As much as I'd like that, the chances of it happening are about as high as Coningsby reaching 45.3°C next July, if you ask me.

[MP-R]

3 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:

After a colder and drier day yesterday (which was supposed to be sunny but wasn’t really) it has been yet another cloudy and windy day, with periods of rain. High 11°C. So monotonous. I honestly don’t know how anyone can prefer this to what we had in the summer.

 

Tbh we had this rubbish in summer too, July at least.

[raz.org.rain]

21 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

As much as I'd like that, the chances of it happening are about as high as Coningsby reaching 45.3°C next July, if you ask me.

quite a few dismal outlooks tonight, just saw a post on Twitter saying the upcoming SSW may only be minor one and that could result in a bigger one "at the end of winter". I think we all know what that'll result in (again).

[CLReeve]

I don't care about it being cold or mild or whatnot, I just wish it would stay dry for a few days.  Everything's sodden out there!