Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[Allseasons-Si]

WOW!!!

all jff but this is great model watching

[Bricriu]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

Stunning chart

 

Slider gate? Could Roger J Smith be right about this winter having this kind of pattern?

[CoventryWeather]

Utterly mental. Is the GFS the trend setter again? JK of course. But really fascinating model watching. 

I should really head to bed now. Let's see what tomorrows runs have to say! Let's hope for further improvements

[Bricriu]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

You can't deny the fact that the models have such strong momentum to keep us in cold, we are seeing unusually low momentum towards a breakdown.

It's starting reminds me of February 2012 or was it 2013?. The cold breakdown kept being pushed back.

Edited November 27, 2023 by Bricriu

[Downburst]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:

""Slider alert"

and then some...

 

I’ve been watching that low spawn on the last few runs. Bottom line on this run is the negative oscillation with higher heights to the north as we can see on your chart. Let’s keep watching this area to the north and see if this does slide, after it slides if it does then possible shenanigans are on the cards.

[MJB]

They keep on coming,great 18z has to be said 

[Battleground Snow]

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

You can't deny the fact that the models have such strong momentum to keep us in cold, we are seeing unusually low momentum towards a breakdown.

Most runs do keep the euro trough, when you have that there is always a chance of blocking to the north... Long may it continue 

[Huntforsnow]

Model/net weather forum check before work, during work, catch up after work and then before sleep 

Fascinating stuff this early to start the winter 

I wonder what I did with all this time the rest of the year  

[MJB]

LOL The cold air wins out and the front retreats 

[Scott Ingham]

1962/63 is the only year in living memory that had oscillating Northern Heights between Greenland/Iceland/Scandinavia. It is possible for a pattern to set up that self sustains itself but it’s the only year that’s done that for a reason! 
 

Many similarities with the Canadian warming, El Niño/ East QBO combination!

im not saying this is happening now btw that is IMPOSSIBLE to predict but id love to see it happen just from a learning perspective to see how a year like that would set up!

[Allseasons-Si]

My word,...this is synoptically beautiful,... @Tamara,you could be right with this

disrupting lows under the block + high risk high rewards

 

[MJB]

No strength from the West at all on this run, quite incredible to watch

[Day_9]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-Si said:

""Slider alert"

and then some...

 Sublime synoptics this year, although until its +72 max, I would discount any snow depth or snow charts.  Although, going on the above and getting in a completely nimby comment - S Wales gets an absolute pummelling next weekend!
 

But it’s just a chart, a great deal can change in a week.  I have lost count of the number of crushing disappointments for coldies on here.  It’s probably the norm, so to see such consistent almost universal key signals from all models then we could be in for a memorable one - an exception so enjoy watching it unfold, and if it goes pear shaped, then also marvel at the superiority of mother nature. We like to think we know what goes on, but really we haven’t got much of a clue.

 

Either way a big one is long overdue 2010 and then, very briefly, early March 2023 are all I can say we really had on the S Wales coast and so far in terms of model outputs it starting to look magic!

[Met4Cast]

10 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

You can't deny the fact that the models have such strong momentum to keep us in cold, we are seeing unusually low momentum towards a breakdown.

Have to agree - Clear divergence within the output around the 5th between milder & colder solutions. Usually, when models pick up on a return to milder weather it may get pushed back a couple of days but generally it becomes a very clear trend, we don't really seem to be seeing that at the moment. 

Incredible 18z run.

[STORMWATER]

3 minutes ago, Huntforsnow said:

Model/net weather forum check before work, during work, catch up after work and then before sleep 

Fascinating stuff this early to start the winter 

I wonder what I did with all this time the rest of the year  

It is fascinating model watching, all to play for.  I do wonder what I do in the summer when not model-watching.

[Howie]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

No strength from the West at all on this run, quite incredible to watch

You can really see the cold air descending from Russia reject the Atlantic and send it packing to our south 

[Metwatch]

Spot the Greenland blocking high.

[Day_9]

6 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

1962/63 is the only year in living memory that had oscillating Northern Heights between Greenland/Iceland/Scandinavia. It is possible for a pattern to set up that self sustains itself but it’s the only year that’s done that for a reason! 
 

Many similarities with the Canadian warming, El Niño/ East QBO combination!

im not saying this is happening now btw that is IMPOSSIBLE to predict but id love to see it happen just from a learning perspective to see how a year like that would set up!

There are three sliding channel lows in 3 days.  If (and at this range it is highly improbable) but if something like that came off. …… a great example of a COBRA run

[bluearmy]

Classic pub run across the NH

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Classic pub run across the NH

Three prong attack that should slow things down a tad...

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Day_9 said:

There are three sliding channel lows in 3 days.  If (and at this range it is highly improbable) but if something like that came off. …… a great example of a COBRA run

Let’s be honest the chances of that happening are slim but with a jet stream already forced south from a perfect wave break and subsequent pressure high in Greenland/Dense cold air hard to budge in scandi and with the MJO wave moving into Phase 3 which encourages low pressure spawning and moving west to east in the Atlantic there’s a lot of logical sense that says this low pressure pushed on a much much further southern boundary has a CHANCE to create channel lows hitting cold air established in the uk for 10 days

[Met4Cast]

AAM tendency is now spiking as expected, driven by the current progression of the MJO.

In theory, it's not impossible that we hang onto blocking to our north.. the GFS 18z Det whilst a long way out isn't out of the realms of possibility.. 

[Day_9]

 

there is, in beautiful technicolour, the forecasting accurate and “less accurate”  timeframe of modern day meteorology 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

25 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

Slider gate? Could Roger J Smith be right about this winter having this kind of pattern?

Yes he can

BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

20 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

1962/63 is the only year in living memory that had oscillating Northern Heights between Greenland/Iceland/Scandinavia. It is possible for a pattern to set up that self sustains itself but it’s the only year that’s done that for a reason! 
 

Many similarities with the Canadian warming, El Niño/ East QBO combination!

im not saying this is happening now btw that is IMPOSSIBLE to predict but id love to see it happen just from a learning perspective to see how a year like that would set up!

Possible but too soon in the longterm cycle….but very possible going forward 

 

BFTP