Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[TSNWK]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Anyone with snow cover would be getting -6/-8 frosts or colder with that set up

 

Don’t tell me heights are about to build here

I’m sure you’re not alone watching… cold seems to putting up a slightly more.. are day 5

[Ali1977]

It’s bloody trying it is - still v cold too

[Bats32]

GFS wanting to tease us again!

[Lukesluckybunch]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Anyone with snow cover would be getting -6/-8 frosts or colder with that set up

 

Don’t tell me heights are about to build here

Nice spot ali..what is going on here!

[Ali1977]

Slide baby, then Robert’s your fathers brother

[stewfox]

4 hours ago, minus10 said:

10 degrees or more between the op and the 850 mean/long term mean..wonder what the record is for the difference between an op and its means...

This thin green line has been mentioned a few times . Some suggestioning it has no support. 

Well it has mine. NH profile not your standard default at the moment. 

[Scott Ingham]

40 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Shame it’s like ECM showing mainly rain and sleet with snow reserved for northern hills. Still time for upgrades though

I’m not on a northern hills and that chart shows a covering for me. Not much admittedly 5cm at most

[rwtwm]

44 minutes ago, Purga said:

The ECM ENS certainly don't close the door on extended cold. The well worn phrase 'all to play for' springs to mind.

Pretty much every possible December condition seems to be represented there!

[TSNWK]

jet does have better angle to slide compared with 12z

[Malarky]

1055 over Greeny.

[TSNWK]

Not gonna happen… but another little teeze it might around day 6…

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Not gonna happen… but another little teeze it might around day 6…

Could quite easily wake up to something much better long term by the morning, but we now have 7 days of nice cold air to enjoy regardless!! Sunday is something to chase regarding wider U.K. snow, and those in the east could get lucky!!

oh and guess what, it’s still November ️️

[Cambrian]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Absolutely Matt.

What strikes me about the threat of this postulated return of the Atlantic, is that there is nothing driving it.  No polar vortex in that vicinity (trop or strat), which means that it should not take much to overcome it once more once the rise in AAM starts to feed through.  That’s not to say the mild will even win out in the first place, that is not yet decided - it is favourite on the model output, sure, but it is not a done deal.

I’m of this thinking too. 12z EPS at 180h, shows the relevance of the continued Canadian warming, resulting in a combination of outcomes - the breaking of the normal linkage of the Pacific and Atlantic legs of the jet stream through North America weakening the Atlantic jet, allowing ridges to easily cut through and stem the flow. 

The subsequent bulging of the Arctic heights will ultimately help to force the jet stream even further south, while also continuing to isolate the core of the PV in eastern Siberia. As a result, it’s pushing a reverse wave through northern Russia, seen in the contour lines arcing clockwise around the eastern Arctic towards Scandinavia, reinforcing the cold there, feeding the cold block across Northern Europe and our current weather.

We hear a lot about waves propagating from the Pacific, which is always thoroughly fascinating. At the moment, very interestingly, as we’re heading into Northern Hemisphere winter, they are being surprisingly well countered by this Arctic / Eurasian setup, which is all of course courtesy of the events on the Canadian side.

There might be some fluctuations at the margins, but this core theme is here to stay for the next few weeks at least. Completely enthralling. 

[festivalking]

7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Could quite easily wake up to something much better long term by the morning, but we now have 7 days of nice cold air to enjoy regardless!! Sunday is something to chase regarding wider U.K. snow, and those in the east could get lucky!!

oh and guess what, it’s still November ️️

Not withstanding chance of snow for higher ground in the southwest on Thursday

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Not withstanding chance of snow for higher ground in the southwest on Thursday

Shown nicely by the GEFS mean

[Lincs Observation]

Posted up in a few sources on X 

interesting  

[Lukesluckybunch]

So that could be the theme next week then..heights trying to build further north again,hopefully we will get opportunities with wedges appearing between the lows!

[Met4Cast]

Becoming rather difficult to keep up the rhetoric for a continuation of cold beyond the first week of December now, MOGREPS showing a clear trend towards less cold air moving in across the UK, in agreement with the GEFS & EPS.

Hopefully we can squeeze as much snow out of this week as we can!

[TauntonRoss]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Shown nicely by the GEFS mean

Yeah Thursday could be better than first thought, even I might get some.

[Lincs Observation]

More detail from another source on X

 

 

[near northampton]

29 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GFS take on Sunday..looks a bit more promising so Midlands / north wales 

I look at this chart and see lowland southern Germany and wonder what their Weather forums are discussing! We need some perspective here I think 

[TauntonRoss]

Just now, near northampton said:

I look at this chart and see lowland southern Germany and wonder what their Weather forums are discussing! We need some perspective here I think 

Think this forum would crash tbh if that was us

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Becoming rather difficult to keep up the rhetoric for a continuation of cold beyond the first week of December now, MOGREPS showing a clear trend towards less cold air moving in across the UK, in agreement with the GEFS & EPS.

Hopefully we can squeeze as much snow out of this week as we can!

Yeah I agree, although I will give it till the 12zs tomorrow as the NH still seems primed for something different in my eyes - hope-casting mainly I guess

Can we just keep extending this cold until the point where the MJO helps us out again

[MATTWOLVES 3]

You know what I'm seriously thinking here folks.

This could be the  Winter when all is said and done that the teleconnections scratch there heads and say what the bloody hell just happened here!

I remember reading somewhere recently back in Summer from a climatological expert that there are so many variables coming into play right now that we are literally entering the unknown!

The moral of this story is do not be that suprised if you wake up some days and see that NWP as completely changed its direction.

The background drivers could well be overuled by overriding factors on occasion.

[Purga]

Well the jet is not exactly roaring away to the north of us. Still many options both good and bad on the table.