Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[jonboy]

I wish people would remember its still November and for many of us old timers winter is still 3 weeks away. The cold is getting entrenched to our north and east and once the mjo and other synoptics  allow we could be in for a memorable cold period. Patience is a virtue why have a smearing of jam when you can have a big dollop of jam and cream later. 

[Blessed Weather]

1 hour ago, Methuselah said:

So what caused the cold weather (along with a few blizzards) between Xmas and early January then? It seems to me, that the extreme cold had set-in weeks before the Canadian warming exerted its effect? 

 

1 hour ago, Cold Winter Night said:

 

1962-1963 had a Canadian Warming in late November, but that one was, like most CW's, no formal SSW with a 10 hPa reversal.
Later on, at the end of January, there was a proper SSW.

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

i thought there had been a canadian warming in nov 62, hence why the usual excitement in here whenever those type of winters analogue vaguely with whats happening now.

 

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, I thought that as well, Canadian warmings are an early season phenomenon, and one that seemed until this year to be a thing of the past.

That’s why it is so interesting to see one, and even though it is not a reversal, it seems to have a very clear signature on the model output.  One more thing very much in our favour as we head towards the heart of winter 

Thanks guys. The frustration of scientific papers that are behind a paywall and you can only read the abstract and first page. The abstract says "The stratospheric warming and circulation change of January and February 1963 are discussed.......    ........warming initially appeared at 10mb over southeastern Canada.......  ......the subsequent events..... .....destruction of the wintertime polar cyclone......"

And the last sentence of the first page says "Beginning in mid-January 1963 the stratospheric circulation was interrupted by intense temperature and height changes of a scale as large as any previously documented".

I concluded the Canadian warming was early January, leading to a full-blown SSW late February, but I'm happy to accept that the Canadian Warming was in November, leading to the above in Jan/Feb. Have you guys got a source of info to confirm Nov 1962 please? There are precious little scientific papers on the phenomenon, although last week Prof. Judah Cohen stated he was involved in a study, so that's good news.

Whatever, for those of us with a cold persuasion, let's keep our fingers crossed that this Canadian Warming has a similar impact to the winter of 1963.

[Methuselah]

And here's this week's Met. Office Ten-Day Trend. . . Uncertainty is the word!

 

[Battleground Snow]

Its not going to make it this run, but icon trying to push heights up towards Scandinavia, improvement from its 00z run

[Tim Bland]

Dusting for central southern parts and some parts of wales / Scotland Sat night perhaps 

[Kasim Awan]

The ICON keeps low pressure further west next week whilst building heights to our East the result is no true breakdown of cold up to 180H.

[Jackski4]

I just have a feeling things may switch to cold again tonight. Shoot me if I’m wrong though, won’t ya?

[Kasim Awan]

This is not an Atlantic breakdown chart.

[booferking]

Oh what have we got here then  weak vortex not at it usual home weakened jet and Atlantic pressure building close to UK and over scandi.

[joggs]

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Thanks for that Blessed.

I think we may have the forum doing a check on the hour every hour for the next few weeks on that Canadian warming...now that it's been mentioned as one of the key drivers behind 63.

Some may get that excited the Xmas presents may be opened earlier than expected

OK I'm a tad excited..now let's just have a look at that warming over Canada..think I'm gonna have to give Judah a nudge on this one.

But I definitely feel the momentum will increase as we move further into December.If I'm wrong then so be it..we live and learn..but this year just seems different....yeh we've heard that statement numerous times before but there seems to be much more going on this time around.

Regarding met update it amazes me how you can have reduced confidence in the mid term over inroads of milder air,and the fact it may hold on further North..yet go on to say it will become milder towards mid month with more certainty! I tell you folks its not that straight forward when it comes to moving cold blocks that have been bedded in for weeks! I feel the met are gonna be caught with there trousers down on more than 1 occasion this Winter...pardon the pun.

Food for thought folks...but imagine this...if we did go into a 63 type set up you would still have the met and other pros saying there are now signs of milder Atlantic air moving in! I remember my grandad saying to me years ago this...during 63 everynight they would sit there listening to the world service radio station,and so many times they would say milder air is on the way! Yes forecasting as moved on heaps and bounds since then..but I think you get the general point I'm making here.

The GFS first picked up on this cold spell and the met had no mention back in their extended.

Edited November 29, 2023 by joggs

[MattStoke]

Weekend trough popping up again on the ICON.

[Cold Winter Night]

5 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

 

 

Thanks guys. The frustration of scientific papers that are behind a paywall and you can only read the abstract and first page. The abstract says "The stratospheric warming and circulation change of January and February 1963 are discussed.......    ........warming initially appeared at 10mb over southeastern Canada.......  ......the subsequent events..... .....destruction of the wintertime polar cyclone......"

And the last sentence of the first page says "Beginning in mid-January 1963 the stratospheric circulation was interrupted by intense temperature and height changes of a scale as large as any previously documented".

I concluded the Canadian warming was early January, leading to a full-blown SSW late February, but I'm happy to accept that the Canadian Warming was in November, leading to the above in Jan/Feb. Have you guys got a source of info to confirm Nov 1962 please? There are precious little scientific papers on the phenomenon, although last week Prof. Judah Cohen stated he was involved in a study, so that's good news.

Whatever, for those of us with a cold persuasion, let's keep our fingers crossed that this Canadian Warming has a similar impact to the winter of 1963.

Here's a list that includes Canadian Warmings (CW)

From here:

https://www.atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca/SPARC/News15/15_Labitzke.html

And then there's the original source of the whole idea of Canadian Warmings, the 1977 Labitzke article "Interannual Variability of the Winter Stratosphere in the Northern Hemisphere."
That one does not have a list, nor mentions 1962, but it does describe the nature of the phenomenon an the distinction between it and major and minor warmings.

Interannual Variability of the Winter Stratosphere in the Northern Hemisphere

JOURNALS.AMETSOC.ORG

---

Abstract The interannual variability of the stratosphere in the northern winter is discussed, mainly on the basis of zonal harmonic wave analyses of the daily height and temperature fields in the middle stratosphere. Comparing...

 

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

This is not an Atlantic breakdown chart.

It looks a,very cold chart with winds coming off the cold continent .

[Derecho]

7 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

I just have a feeling things may switch to cold again tonight. Shoot me if I’m wrong though, won’t ya?

I can't seem to make my mind up, I'm expecting a let down but something tells me it isn't over yet and there is still a lot to resolve early next week. The pattern is very slack with cold potentially building NE.

The 00z's always seem to be a party pooper but out of hope I still think there could be another twist if we can get a low to disrupt as it heads towards us next week.

[Jackski4]

3 minutes ago, Derecho said:

I can't seem to make my mind up, I'm expecting a let down but something tells me it isn't over yet and there is still a lot to resolve early next week. The pattern is very slack with cold potentially building NE.

The 00z's always seem to be a party pooper but out of hope I still think there could be another twist if we can get a low to disrupt as it heads towards us next week.

Yeah. With all that knowledge you’ve just shown and my psychic abilities, nobody has to worry

[phil nw.]

24 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

 

 

Thanks guys. The frustration of scientific papers that are behind a paywall and you can only read the abstract and first page. The abstract says "The stratospheric warming and circulation change of January and February 1963 are discussed.......    ........warming initially appeared at 10mb over southeastern Canada.......  ......the subsequent events..... .....destruction of the wintertime polar cyclone......"

And the last sentence of the first page says "Beginning in mid-January 1963 the stratospheric circulation was interrupted by intense temperature and height changes of a scale as large as any previously documented".

I concluded the Canadian warming was early January, leading to a full-blown SSW late February, but I'm happy to accept that the Canadian Warming was in November, leading to the above in Jan/Feb. Have you guys got a source of info to confirm Nov 1962 please? There are precious little scientific papers on the phenomenon, although last week Prof. Judah Cohen stated he was involved in a study, so that's good news.

Whatever, for those of us with a cold persuasion, let's keep our fingers crossed that this Canadian Warming has a similar impact to the winter of 1963.

I recall seeing a list on the Berlin university site listing all the years going right back showing the QBO states and including any Canadian warmings.

Sorry that I don't have the link now as it was on an old PC.

I do remember there was one showing for November 1962.

I was interested to see that because that Winter was the one that got me interested in weather as a schoolboy.

If we get something anywhere close to that then it would stick in our memories just like that one did for me.

Edit

Just saw Cold winter night has posted the list above.

Edited November 29, 2023 by phil nw.

[northwestsnow]

GFS looks a small improvement at 60

6z below

 

Edited November 29, 2023 by northwestsnow

[Battleground Snow]

Looks like the Atlantic is hitting the buffers as early as 114 on the arpege,

When I seen those 06z EPS earlier and how blocked there were it did make me sit up.

[northwestsnow]

Good trend as early as 72h

12z

6z below

 

[Tim Bland]

GFS similar to icon with a cm or 2 for some Sat night into Sunday morn 

 

Edited November 29, 2023 by Tim Bland

[sheikhy]

Ohhh gfs lookin  better at 84 hours!!!!

[Uncertainty]

I think Arpege would send disrupt the first low SE and then ridge to the remnant scandi heights…

We’ll never know but it’ll be interesting to see how many of the rest of the 12z go down the icon route…

[Drifter]

This is looking similar to icon so may well extend the cold again…

[sheikhy]

Jheez gfs has moved things south and west by a few hundred miles i think!!!

[Mcconnor8]

6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ohhh gfs lookin  better at 84 hours!!!!

UKMO 12z looks a little better but not as good as GFS at 96 hours.