Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[blizzard81]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Arpege looks much more sensible with the evolution, no over the top low

Is this classed as a higher resolution model at that range?

[*Stormforce~beka*]

5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

What you trying to say Beka?  

No offence sweety. X I just found bullet points much easier to read than a block of text and it was written to the thinkos like me

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Is this classed as a higher resolution model at that range?

I guess it's more geared to the finer details  rather than the global scale, but I'm not really sure to be honest 

[Kasim Awan]

19 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Bloody hell mate make ya mind up you said a few hours ago that your confidence was growing on a snow event this Sunday!

It's definitely one or the other.

That is the nature of short range weather forecasting, things change.

If I was set on one outcome I would not be accurately reflecting small scale atmospheric changes which significantly change in a matter of hours. This has now been eradicated by all high res models at very important time frame which owes to the data driven and logical standpoint for the retreat. A full suite backtrack doesn't just occur for no reason, it has to have significant observational (input) data changes to result in that changed outcome. As what is shown now is closer to the event than the previous run, it is a little more likely to be closer to the actual outcome than the previous run. This mainly due to the input data being closer to the event, therefore affected by less chaotic noise which means the outcome has a slightly higher confidence level. It is an informed backtrack by myself, though I still leave room for a switch back to a more organised trough.

Edited November 30, 2023 by Kasim Awan

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

No offence sweety. X I just found bullet points much easier to read than a block of text and it was written to the thinkos like me

Of course I get it lol. Love that word 'thinkos' though. That could be a new one for the Oxford English dictionary next year. Well, it should be . Love it! Lol

[Rain All Night]

29 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Is this classed as a higher resolution model at that range?

I think the ARPEGE has a higher resolution over France/Western Europe than the other global models (and a lower resolution over the Antipodes to compensate), which I think may be what justifies its existence as a sister model to the ECM: Météo-France use it to feed the AROME. It would also make no sense to run it more than a few days out due to its inferior resolution over half the globe.

Edited November 30, 2023 by RainAllNight

[Kasim Awan]

It's trying ❄ Think this will be pure nowcast still seeing some support for the band.

[Daniel*]

I’ve never seen such anomalous cold modelled in vast expanse of continental Russia. The signal from EPS is overwhelming if that spills into Europe it really could be historic I do not say that lightly. 

[Big Gally]

10 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I’ve never seen such anomalous cold modelled in vast expanse of continental Russia. The signal from EPS is overwhelming if that spills into Europe it really could be historic I do not say that lightly. 

Eric Webb is on Twitter hyping up ssw + Cold weather into Europe. 

[convector]

52 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

It's trying ❄ Think this will be pure nowcast still seeing some support for the band.

 

Met office has it as a short wave, most models showing something. im just inside the 528 lol.  fingers crossed ..

[Wold Topper]

1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:

That is the nature of short range weather forecasting, things change.

If I was set on one outcome I would not be accurately reflecting small scale atmospheric changes which significantly change in a matter of hours. This has now been eradicated by all high res models at very important time frame which owes to the data driven and logical standpoint for the retreat. A full suite backtrack doesn't just occur for no reason, it has to have significant observational (input) data changes to result in that changed outcome. As what is shown now is closer to the event than the previous run, it is a little more likely to be closer to the actual outcome than the previous run. This mainly due to the input data being closer to the event, therefore affected by less chaotic noise which means the outcome has a slightly higher confidence level. It is an informed backtrack by myself, though I still leave room for a switch back to a more organised trough.

In short hand, you don't know, no shame in that

[Big Gally]

Fingers crossed  

[nick sussex]

No support so far this morning for last nights ECM solution from the GFS , UKMO or ICON .

The cold lasts into Tuesday for most of the UK .

Still some disagreements re the first low track .

The GEM has a little more trough disruption and tries to cut some shortwave energy se .

I would be surprised if the ECM maintained its evolution from last night but hope springs eternal ! 

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

not the best runs this morning,eventually the atlantic wins out by midweek..the GEM has a little go at trying to build heights to the northeast..but never quite develops!we need ECM to clear things up

[John88B]

So it's looking like milder weather is set to slowly move in from the start of next week unless there's a dramatic changes in the models but still lots to be positive about.

We have a tremendous amount of bitter cold to our north east waiting to be tapped into and surely if it remains there we will have numerous more chances to tap into it again over this coming winter.

It would be nice to see that cold uncorked as we're all uncorking our champagne over the Christmas period

I'm no expert but I think there's every chance it could happen.

[nick sussex]

The ECM at T72 hrs with a shallower low further south .

 

 

[KTtom]

00z's keeping up the trend of being party poopers, odd how this is a recurring trend. Pretty much a full house for not very mild,  wet and windy spell for the following 10 days or so from Tuesday.

[carinthian]

2 minutes ago, John88B said:

So it's looking like milder weather is set to slowly move in from the start of next week unless there's a dramatic changes in the models but still lots to be positive about.

We have a tremendous amount of bitter cold to our north east waiting to be tapped into and surely if it remains there we will have numerous more chances to tap into it again over this coming winter.

It would be nice to see that cold uncorked as we're all uncorking our champagne over the Christmas period

I'm no expert but I think there's every chance it could happen.

Morning , looks like this mornings runs show little respect to the entrenched cold to the North East. After several attempts The Atlantic makes in roads across most of the British Isles by the end of next week at 168T. The GEM model shows the greatest resistance and the UKMO again the most progressive to flush out the cold. Just waiting on ECM  run.  I would think period 120-144 T  still remains problematical regarding the medium term outlook. Whether the waft of mildest is temporary we wait on or not at all !

C

[nick sussex]

The two lows upstream are likely to phase at day 5 .

We really need to see some shortwave energy sent se as that happens .

Will the ECM manage it .

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

So it’s freezing cold, on my (certain supermarket) food delivery round.  Heart Xmas on as we are now in December, Atlantic coming in but sourherly tracking lows,  incredible cold ‘locked in’ across Russia etc etc…..Chances going forward this winter…..i’m in a good place .

 BFTP

[sheikhy]

Ecm low further south now between 48 and 72 hours!!gfs sends it further south aswell!!

[Ali1977]

Still looking good for central southern England the the midlands Saturday night - maybe a surprise for some when they wake up Sunday, albeit it’ll be melting pretty quickly!! 

[tight isobar]

Gfs/ecm 00z @ 144 and the Atlantic gets in. Although I’d honestly await full suites today for definitive confirmation. As the energy runners have optional modeled routes  which in turn could still have a say in length/ dynamics of milder incursion. Still a pretty messy picture from early mid- nxt week . A slight dusting here from a light flurry around 3;30 am.    Keep watching

[sheikhy]

Yes wait till 12zs to see if we have any more improvements!!!better early on though!!ecm keeps us cold till day 6 now!!

[tight isobar]

This is a very favorable sync. And possibly starts the notion of wobbling in the upper layers!.. And is certainly of use going into December- the vortex is a shadow of its usual self!!!@ pacific/ Euro  blocking formats..

Edited December 1, 2023 by tight isobar