Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, That ECM said:

That hasn’t helped.

Would you all log off meteociel please ……..

[northwestsnow]

19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It’s a wonder that some of you make it to Xmas morning without trashing the tree! 

I much prefer the English gentlemanly  way - laptop outta the window

I'm just having windows version 2035 installed ...

Edited December 7, 2023 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

Well here comes ECM..

For me GFS was a superb run from a coldies POV,I'll settle for something similar.

 

[Kentspur]

7 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

We are in early signs of potential change.  The change that will gather momentum imo.  Even at this early stage….encouraging.  Today in Surrey with the windchill…it was really cold and NOT mild.   Real Cold is ‘on tap’ this winter imo….Can we tap in?   Chances are very much there…..but I think ‘plunging lows’ NW/SE or trough to our NE is the way ahead around Xmas week

 

 

BFTP

I

And this is precisely the reason why I've put a few little bets on a white Christmas if only thete was one on solar flares or AO and NAO signals or MJO phases we could all cash in a few days ahead  

 

A couple of these odds are a bit strange Aberdeen looks very good! Paris surprised me as they average slightly colder than London in winter for example maybe they think any snow will come from the N with Newcastle and Manchester low odds

[That ECM]

6 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

And this is precisely the reason why I've put a few little bets on a white Christmas if only thete was one on solar flares or AO and NAO signals or MJO phases we could all cash in a few days ahead  

 

A couple of these odds are a bit strange Aberdeen looks very good! Paris surprised me as they average slightly colder than London in winter for example maybe they think any snow will come from the N with Newcastle and Manchester low odds

For those that don’t understand betting, if you put £10 on Bournemouth at 20-1 then you will lose ten pounds.

Edited December 7, 2023 by That ECM

[That ECM]

15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

try this then.

Wetterzentrale.de - Diagrams

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

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Forecasted 850 hPa Temp. from GFS, 12Z

 

Made it worse. Sooooooooooooooo want to see control.

[LetItSnow!]

Weatherwise, looking forward to when we get to the 12th/13th. Looking forward to the high pressure returning and it hopefully being a frosty one, because it will once again reduce soil temperatures after this mild spell, so if there is any cold spell we don't have to worry about it not settling as easy.

Compared to most years I don't think we're in a terrible position at all. The super mild, grotty stuff only seems to last for about four days before a return to more seasonal conditions and the teleconnections show promise. I felt rather downbeat about the cold relaxing but now I actually feel pretty good about future prospects. I think we have quite a good chance of some interesting weather from a cold perspective, not just for Christmas, but into January too. The way things are going we may even get a rather chilly/more average December for two years in a row (Emphasis on may) and that is something that only two years ago would seem novel. Maybe I've just had too much of the Christmas spirits...

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all, GFS very keen on a long sustained high pressure with a possible 1050mb pressure over the UK chances looking good for some cold temperatures.Met office not keen on high pressure lasting to long in December but as already stated GFS keen from 168 hrs onwards for most of December very interesting has GFS over done this pressure rise or the met office been given the wrong yellow brick road from Glosea computer,we shall of course find out ,all eyes to tonight’s ECM.

[Battleground Snow]

The control was a bit more exciting

[johncam]

41 minutes ago, MJB said:

Not beyond 168 surely ?

I only quoted up to 168 

[bluearmy]

Geps are excellent by day 15/16 

gefs heading that way at day 14 but won’t be as good as them 

centre of the Atlantic high anom possibly getting a bit close to Newfoundland which raises the west based -NAO worries but the lack of any s euro heights should mean we’re ok 

Edited December 7, 2023 by bluearmy

[DIS1970]

A barrage of fronts set to to arrive in 24hrs (rain based!):-

 

[swfc]

7 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

A barrage of fronts set to to arrive in 24hrs (rain based!):-

 

Were currently flooded st wise in Sheffield. Thats without the river don sorry if it's of topic. Uto

[swfc]

37 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well here comes ECM..

For me GFS was a superb run from a coldies POV,I'll settle for something similar.

 

Bit early day 10 max? 

[carinthian]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Evening, well there we have it from GFS op and Control. An attempt to bring back the cold to the British Isles as early as 7 days  with the aid of a developing European trough. Looks like this model has little support from the others so far. However, GFS was first to show this weeks flushing away of the cold whist ECM/UKMO showed the greater resistance. So who is to say GFS is not going to be leader of the pack in a speedy return to colder scenario.

C

No support for GFS lower European heights during the mid -term from the other models. So its "Billy no mates" on its own.If it pulls this one off , a big bonus over the others !

C

[Vikos]

Worst case scenario 

At least Acropolis is covered in snow  

[Troubleatmill]

4 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Worst case scenario 

At least Acropolis is covered in snow  

Nervous eye twitch looking at that

[That ECM]

One could put a case to say ecm offers more opportunity to go nw than gfs. CWN has beautifully below.

Edited December 7, 2023 by That ECM

[Cold Winter Night]

EC 240h, with that TPV lobe moving over towards Scandinavia/Russia and the Arctic High getting closer to Greenland, there is definitely room for the High to expand Northward.

That's what GFS did after 240h, and EC is better, with more heights near Iceland and lower heights over Scandinavia and Western Russia.

Edited December 7, 2023 by Cold Winter Night

[Mike Poole]

12 minutes ago, Troubleatmill said:

Nervous eye twitch looking at that

We really don’t want to end up there!  Be interesting to see what the control does if it follows suit to T240 though!

Edited December 7, 2023 by Mike Poole

[Alexis]

It wont. Since when has a 240h ECMWF chart ever been right? 

All we need at the moment is agreement to an end to the Atlantic train and a high building somewhere near us.

[BartyHater]

Wow just imagine the heat associated with the ECM240 if it was for July 17th, rather than Dec 17th.

Still a huge amount of scatter in the Reykjavik MSLP ensembles too, with the op still very much on the high side of spread.

So good confidence in a much drier, settle spell from this time next week, but that’s still about it for now…

Edited December 7, 2023 by BartyHater

[cheeky_monkey]

21 minutes ago, Troubleatmill said:

Nervous eye twitch looking at that

look like mid December 1991 

[KTtom]

Not sure the +10 850 line has made it to Scotland too mant times in mid December..look away now if of a nervous disposition...

Edited December 7, 2023 by KTtom

[Chesil View]

The last three frames of the  Northern hemisphere view of the 12z ecm  to my eye give an inkling of how the progression from there might go forward in a not too dissimilar fashion to the gfs 06z.

Edited December 7, 2023 by Chesil View