Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[BartyHater]

1 minute ago, AdrianHull said:

I get where you're coming from being from South Cornwall but that isn't a representation of the UK and the general theme of moving into a colder phase of weather from the 18th onwards. Anyways it's all FI so everything is took with a pinch of salt

Colder yes after the 18th, but prior to it max temps will be in mid teens, so even colder will be average of slightly above.

Also I’m not sure cold Dec weather in the UK can be judged by whether you feel cold standing on an exposed hill wearing a  t-shirt and shorts.

I standby my post, the 12’s so far have been a very poor set of runs for cold and unfortunately the ECM at 192 is heading in exactly the same direction.

[northwestsnow]

FGS

[WYorksWeather]

The GFS ensemble shows, unsurprisingly of course, that the OP is almost at the bottom of the ensemble as we move into the phase where it shows proper cold. The mean is still likely to give us a more seasonal feel to Christmas and at least not raging mild south-westerlies, but it's not looking that impressive at the moment. Still outside the reliable though and a lot of scatter.

I'm off out this evening but will do another update with the ECM ensemble and possibly the GFS 18z. The OP runs can only tell us so much - we really want to see more ensembles going colder in the next few days for a White Christmas.

[northwestsnow]

There is no dressing EC det up its horrifyingly bad.

 

Edited December 12, 2023 by northwestsnow

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

FGS

Truly hideous from the ecm. Even when Exeter jump on board, ecm has to go Grinch mode. Euro slugfest. 

Just now, northwestsnow said:

There is no dressing EC det up its horrifyingly bad.

The difference between it and gfs & gem is incredible. 

[blizzard81]

I just can't believe how flat that ecm run is. Just look at the northern hemisphere. Flat as a fart. 

[Day 10]

ECM continues it's Grinch mode.

 

[booferking]

Ec just a day or so behind Gfs would get there likely around Christmas 

[Day 10]

6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Truly hideous from the ecm. Even when Exeter jump on board, ecm has to go Grinch mode. Euro slugfest. 

The difference between it and gfs & gem is incredible. 

Lol just read this.

[Dancerwithwings]

9 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

The GFS ensemble shows, unsurprisingly of course, that the OP is almost at the bottom of the ensemble as we move into the phase where it shows proper cold. The mean is still likely to give us a more seasonal feel to Christmas and at least not raging mild south-westerlies, but it's not looking that impressive at the moment. Still outside the reliable though and a lot of scatter.

I'm off out this evening but will do another update with the ECM ensemble and possibly the GFS 18z. The OP runs can only tell us so much - we really want to see more ensembles going colder in the next few days for a White Christmas.

Agreed, it’s  not a raging Southerner atm, but It’s always the case regarding a scattering after 7 days….so plenty of runs to go as yet….but for now there’s plenty of ups and downs to come methinks

 

Edited December 12, 2023 by Dancerwithwings

[blizzard81]

Trying it's best to redeem itself at day 10 but the transition from day 9 looks like a work of fiction unfortunately. 

[clark3r]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Ec just a day or so behind Gfs would get there likely around Christmas 

I agree 

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, booferking said:

Ec just a day or so behind Gfs would get there likely around Christmas 

The heights over southern Europe would be a massive obstacle to that. 

[sundog]

One good thing I suppose is decent cold for the Arctic.  IF we could tap into that further down the line....at some stage, any northerly would be potent one would imagine?

[Daniel*]

Very dismal ECM 12z, it doesn’t get much more +NAO. Trop vortex looks very strong I suspect it’s being over-egged. 

[booferking]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The heights over southern Europe would be a massive obstacle to that. 

Soon squeeze them out

[Harsh Climate]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

There is no dressing EC det up its horrifyingly bad.

 

It's what comes after 23rd dec, we already know the next 10/11 days offer nothing wintry.

That EC chart you show, cold is about to come in a couple of days.

[Mucka]

I'm not going to say the ECM is flat out wrong but the way it has the Atlantic trough so far W  144 through 168 is at odds with all the other output.

The contrast by 168 to our W and NW by 168 is obvious.

ECM

GFS

GEM

UKMO

 

Given the discrepancy is large and notable within 144h then I would say ECM is not worth over analysing for now. If it is repeated tomorrow morning that would be more of a worry.

Let's see how it looks when compared with the ensemble mean 500hPa charts at 168 later this evening.

[LRD]

ECM ops have never been interested in anything especially cold and it's ensembles and clusters are very unconvincing too so the Met Office must be disregarding it and going with their own model and GFS - unless it's all change for their forecast tomorrow

Edited December 12, 2023 by LRD

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

13 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I just can't believe how flat that ecm run is. Just look at the northern hemisphere. Flat as a fart. 

Let it play out

 

BFTP

[Harsh Climate]

Anyone who thinks the 240 ECM chart is bad on face value if it was to be definitive has a lot to learn.

From flicking from ECM 216 to 240. A cold plunge is clearly on the way,

[That ECM]

Looks like from T240 there’s going to be some less calm weather heading our way from the nw. Nhp needs agreeing on. Which will impact on what follows.

[LRD]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Let it play out

 

BFTP

You'll be surprised to read that I agree with you. Looks like the PV is shifting to the eastern hemisphere. Could be delaying what GEM and GFS are seeing. Or it's just an outlier

Don't see anything prolonged but it could be a potent 3 or 4 day spell at some point near or over Xmas

[January Snowstorm]

I see nothing wrong with the ecm, in fact it's supporting the idea of cold zonal as we head for Christmas. At least we have a ticket for the raffle this year and the euro high is most definitely weakening!!

[Bricriu]

2 minutes ago, LRD said:

You'll be surprised to read that I agree with you. Looks like the PV is shifting to the eastern hemisphere. Could be delaying what GEM and GFS are seeing. Or it's just an outlier

Don't see anything prolonged but it could be a potent 3 or 4 day spell at some point near or over Xmas

That will be enough for me if it happens. Then hopefully we get a sustained cold spell in the new year