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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

MATTWOLVES 3

By MATTWOLVES 3
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion. Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like some localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. 

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly
 

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Posted by lorenzo,

You know what would be cool - if folks could take it back to reviewing the models, looking at the output, posting up some thoughts. Importantly, without adding in a layer of spiky thoughts about what others may or may not be doing, or howthey should or should not be behaving, one liners, agendas, this ramp, that ramp. We have another great period of model watching ahead, excitement is all good. Trolling, sniping, various - that person should be this or that - it's quite boring, and det

Please have a read of this post and bear it in mind when posting.

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MATTWOLVES 3
MATTWOLVES 3

Thanks Briciu.. With a sad heart I report to say my Dad lost his fight on Wednesday...he passed away peacefully with closest family around him. I'm gutted. So many things to now sort out and at s

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MATTWOLVES 3

Hey folks hope your all chasing that next cold snap down.. it will come trust me. As many of you will be aware my dad has been poorly for some time now with parkinsons disease..in the last week h

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MATTWOLVES 3

Hope the mods don't mind me dropping this message in here. I know its only Wednesday and Xmas is 5 days away but with so much going on right now and it being quite in here...and so many stressful

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
6 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Absolutely kasim..that's a lovely run..looking at that very likely cold a snowy a few days after!

Uppers.. I'm increasingly minded that these stunning synoptics are not being under pinned by -7 and lower uppers  

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted


This is nowhere near firmed up imo. Look at the changes on gfs. While ukmo improves.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

The UKMO at 144 hrs sides with the ICON,....the gfs is a bit flatter.

UN144-21.thumb.gif.8cdc51db624a9ede6127acd8c4052b59.gificonnh-0-144.thumb.png.891fee6d9cea56170e492b0f18cbcecb.pnggfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.ee4c5c681cf80caf0fc20f4e924baa85.png

 

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
Just now, Allseasons-Si said:

The UKMO at 144 hrs sides with the ICON,....the gfs is a bit flatter.

UN144-21.thumb.gif.8cdc51db624a9ede6127acd8c4052b59.gificonnh-0-144.thumb.png.891fee6d9cea56170e492b0f18cbcecb.pnggfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.ee4c5c681cf80caf0fc20f4e924baa85.png

 

GFS a bit slower however this might be a good thing and stop the west trend of where the vortex drops.. already looks a bit further east

 

image.thumb.png.3cd9abdbd01ee3566c728440701226b1.png

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

We don't want it any further East.

why not? I'm thinking if it drops too far west we scoop up atlantic muck - about where it is dropping on this 12Z appears ok so far - you can see colder air as well..

image.thumb.png.7e3e8636311c19f0e983405209e487be.png

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted
2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

We don't want it any further East.

As explained earlier, you do if you want a more polar and less maritime air in the flow.

But it is all relative to earlier GFS runs pushing the trough further W, this is better for colder flow.

12z V 06z

image.thumb.png.6583893836c0deb39fec4c09856f44f7.pngimage.thumb.png.6d3bfe885b29cef1b1e3c4c6c58188b1.png

 

image.png

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
Just now, Mucka said:

As explained earlier, you do if you want a more polar and less maritime air in the flow.

But it is all relative to earlier GFS runs pushing the trough further W, this is better for colder flow.

12z V 06z

image.thumb.png.6583893836c0deb39fec4c09856f44f7.pngimage.thumb.png.6d3bfe885b29cef1b1e3c4c6c58188b1.png

 

image.png

image.png

precisely 🙂  I'm aligned with on this @Mucka

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

Cheshire gap snow showers, likely prolonged and heavy at times on this run.

A long way to go though...

image.thumb.png.bc8eedec99f982dfb3566d27661c28ca.pngimage.thumb.png.39c137583607a63cd71ae0a9901ba4c3.png

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seabreeze86 Accomplished

seabreeze86

Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
Posted

Eyebrows raised not far off something decent here on the GFS . Thicknesses very low snow to relatively low levels 

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Mcconnor8 Seasoned

Mcconnor8

Posted
  • Location: Lancing, South coast
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing, South coast
Posted
1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

I think the gfs is setting up perfectly at day 9..expect things to become very good!

Gonna be one of those runs we look back on as a what could have been in a week or 2 won't it 😅

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

Nice slice of heights through north America on this run but we still need the pattern to back further east a tad as it's still freezing the fishermen in the north Atlantic,there is a reniewed puch of colder uppers spreading down from the north though.

gfsnh-0-228.thumb.png.d63655fcb6894b9ea30f2b847681e370.pnggfsnh-1-228.thumb.png.4cd13397c10f1da68e4784420709f334.png

Edited by Allseasons-Si
typo
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

This is shaping up to be a stonker, cold air with embedded troughs in the flow, somewhere will get a hiding on this run.

image.thumb.png.6cff2e9925a1ab8e7910165609b72777.png

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

Ice day for the N on the 23rd with lying snow, such are Christmas fantasies for our island.

image.thumb.png.7bacb9b77d4d613f31e496879449335a.png

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