Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, mfhblue said:

As it passes it looks like drawing in a potent Northerly, potentially sustained IMHO.

well if it sustains that helps.. GFS rolling.

[TSNWK]

Ummmmmmmmmmmm we might have an issue on this run.. looks much flatter at day 7 and more heights over azores / Iberia.

 

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Ummmmmmmmmmmm we might have an issue on this run.. looks much flatter at day 7 and more heights over azores / Iberia.

 

Still looks primed for cold zonality.

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Ummmmmmmmmmmm we might have an issue on this run.. looks much flatter at day 7 and more heights over azores / Iberia.

 

The jet appears to be moving west to east,not northwest southeast...resulting in a more westerly flow

[booferking]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Ummmmmmmmmmmm we might have an issue on this run.. looks much flatter at day 7 and more heights over azores / Iberia.

 

This run is about to unleash a better run than 6z incoming.

[Kasim Awan]

Straight westerlies on GFS12Z.

[weathercold]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

The jet appears to be moving west to east,not northwest southeast...resulting in a more westerly flow

All very predictable and unsurprising- damp squib for many over Xmas sadly. 

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

This run is about to unleash a better run than 6z incoming.

Not seeing that at all

[Nick F]

6 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Ummmmmmmmmmmm we might have an issue on this run.. looks much flatter at day 7 and more heights over azores / Iberia.

 

Jet stream looks quite a bit further north on 12z GFS op second half of next week compared to the 06z GFS op. So that cold air delayed getting in.

[weathercold]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Straight westerlies on GFS12Z.

Wet, Windy and Mild.

[bluearmy]

The trough dropped into the Atlantic at day 5/6 on gfs has interfered with the ease of retrogression of the high as it circulated to its west -  I’m sure that’s why it’s a bit stuck with its movement towards Newfoundland 

I doubt gfs has that feature quite right 

[Jason M]

Just now, weathercold said:

Wet, Windy and Mild.

Not massively wet down south I'd have thought. Pressure is actually quite high across south of UK. 

[weathercold]

Just now, Jason M said:

Not massively wet down south I'd have thought. Pressure is actually quite high across south of UK. 

Over many parts it will be, apologies wasn’t being location specific. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

We might be ok by day 10 though or xmas!hahah

[Day 10]

The change from the north doesn't get started until about day 8, we are still in FI, time for a few more tweaks good or bad.

[Nick F]

Quite a difference in how far south the jet next Friday is between 12z GFS and ICON. Quite a big change from GFS, either its wrong or picking a new trend ...

GFS

  

ICON

[booferking]

4 minutes ago, weathercold said:

All very predictable and unsurprising- damp squib for many over Xmas sadly. 

Not seeing that at all

No spoiler low longer lasting cold won't phase over ESB like 6z

[nick sussex]

The GFS is dire . And the longer it takes for the trough to dig south the more likely that doesn’t happen .

Without any real forcing from the nw it’s a hard slog to get that south . 

The UKMO looks better at day 6 . Waiting for the day 7 which must surely look better than the GFS.

[Mike Poole]

I actually think this may end up in a better position.  T216:

There’s quite a strong ridge now between the PV and that low out extreme west over the eastern USA, the PV should move further towards us and south as the run goes on (hopefully!).

[Lukesluckybunch]

I don't think anything is breaking through that PV! 

[Drifter]

I think it’s looking better for the Christmas period? 

[cheshire snow]

Colder air spreading south at Day 9

[booferking]

Great run if it's Christmas snow you want don't understand some of the post in here night a day over ESB.

[January Snowstorm]

Not a bad place to be Christmas Eve. I think we'd all take a delay if Christmas was cold!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Atlantic is shut off on this run..could become could but it's looking cold and wet

[nick sussex]

Just now, cheshire snow said:

Colder air spreading south at Day 9

At this rate with the constant delays I’ll be pushing a zimmer frame around by the time it arrives . Talk about slow burner !