Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[johncam]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

There’s no reason to concern about super cold and snow during  Christmas.   It’s very early winter, chilly will do for me but I remember the super warm Xmas (in Swansea) in 1985……historic winter month + followed.  Won’t go any further….chances will be there…..and btw I remember more Green Christmas’ than white….a lot more…and i’m no Spring chicken

 

BFTP

Different times now , less sea ice , warmer seas are having an impact dad yo say

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Ive posted in the global thread too but for those who don't check other threads but enjoy watching the dynamics unfolding..

Looking at the situation across Africa particularly Northwest North and Northeast regions, a low which began in SE England will transition into a cut off low via Rossby Wave Breaking and will drift Southwest into Africa. This is occuring via phase 3 feedbacks of the MJO which can give below average surface temps over this part of Africa which matches very good to these upcoming dynamics

New trend coming into play on the models with scope of a second wave break from frontal energy coming from the Atlantic which extends Northeast through the UK with signs for a secondary cut off low development through Spain which also slides into these African regions 

Contradictory to the Christmas lyrics this will provide opportunity for some of the precip to be falling as snow in parts of Morocco, Northern Alergia and Tunisia this Christmas

Could see some flooding rains occuring with the 1st wave break low particularly across Tunisia perhaps close to the coast of Libya

[sebastiaan1973]

At 50 hPa it seems the polar vortex moves to Siberia. Should this increase the opportunities for 'us' (lovers of ice/ snow etc) I think so. 

[Kentspur]

A good clustering of colder ensembles for even this far SE 12z GFS and surprisingly some snow spikes

[Harsh Climate]

ECM trickling out

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

ECM trickling out

Meteociel is working now.

Have a bad feeling about ECM..Could be a very Atlantic run.

[TSNWK]

Just now, Harsh Climate said:

ECM trickling out

Come on ecm.. let’s reignite this thread.., 144 / 168 first junction in the road… with esb low. Needs it isolated away from the Greenland lobe.. no phase plesse…

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

ECM trickling out

different to UKMO here, feel UKMO is wrong for Tues, shows no disturbance

[Harsh Climate]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Meteociel is working now.

ECM 96 looking good. I think meteociel is behind this  time

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

ECM 96 looking good. I think meteociel is behind this  time

Going to flatten out at 168H.

[TSNWK]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Going to flatten out at 168H.

How do you know this? Is esb low behaviour already phasing ?

[Harsh Climate]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Going to flatten out at 168H.

120H looks decent, could go either way but I'm thinking we should be alright

[TSNWK]

ECM 120 on wetter.. I prefer metro style.. I think it’s ok for though

[BartyHater]

ECM at 144hrs is pants, its heading the way of the 00 ICON, with the Newfoundland Low spilling into the N Atlantic and cutting off any cold N flow.

Edited December 16, 2023 by BartyHater

[Bricriu]

With all the chopping and changing, I hope the models don't  converge on a halfway house solution by  late this weekend

The problem in this scenario is it will probably mean cold and wet rather cold and white for many on Christmas Eve, except for Scotland and high ground in the north.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Bricriu

[Kasim Awan]

9 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

How do you know this? Is esb low behaviour already phasing ?

Not phased enough and high too strong, Iberian high.

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, BartyHater said:

ECM at 144hrs is pants.

I’ll post it. 

[Harsh Climate]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I’ll post it. 

Still 3 days from xmas, lets see how it pans out.

[frosty ground]

Compared to the 0z it’s an improvement 

Edited December 16, 2023 by frosty ground

[Harsh Climate]

Saving grace might be ridge of high pressure approaching greenland

[MJB]

 

[warrenb]

It might flatten (80/20) then again it might not (50/50)

[Harsh Climate]

Great run so far for central/ northern scotland  Widspread snow from west

[BartyHater]

Just now, frosty ground said:

Compared to the 12z it’s an improvement 

It really isn't....the 00 had cold to the N primed to head S, this run doesn't even have that. Calling it pants is probably a compliment.

[Kasim Awan]

17 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Going to flatten out at 168H.

Flat at 168H - unable to properly phase.