Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[Tim Bland]

Boxing Day slider back on the menu??

Edited December 18, 2023 by Tim Bland

[BartyHater]

06 didn't pan out quite as bad as feared in the run down to Xmas and now it managed to conjur up a Boxing Day slider - this is not going to be a good week to give up drinking 

[Weather vane]

Huge differences in how the GFS 00z vs 06z is handling the mid Atlantic low on the 26th...

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, BartyHater said:

06 didn't pan out quite as bad as feared in the run down to Xmas and now it managed to conjur up a Boxing Day slider - this is not going to be a good week to give up drinking 

It certainly didn't, nice wedge, cold air still in Scotland, reasonably cold air elsewhere and a potential slider runner.

[blizzard81]

This is why I don't give much credence to the gfs 06z or 18z runs. I trust this run no more than the mildfest pub run of last night. We often see the unbelievable best case scenario on the 06z run only to have our hopes dashed 6 hours later. 

[Derecho]

A much better GFS for the christmas period with that slider. Still the Iberian high to our south but minor changes like this can sometimes lead to something different afterwards. It is the GFS 06z though.

Edited December 18, 2023 by Derecho

[bluearmy]

A slider has always been an option for Boxing Day with the colder flow Xmas eve and likely ridge to follow being high on the list of possibilities.  I’m surprised it’s taken so long for an op to show this.

if this pattern is the one that verifies then you’d expect it to correct further south on the system too. 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

A slider has always been an option for Boxing Day with the colder flow Xmas eve and likely ridge to follow being high on the list of possibilities.  I’m surprised it’s taken so long for an op to show this.

if this pattern is the one that verifies then you’d expect it to correct further south on the system too. 

Let's hope the op has finally latched onto the correct solution huh?  

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

A slider has always been an option for Boxing Day with the colder flow Xmas eve and likely ridge to follow being high on the list of possibilities.  I’m surprised it’s taken so long for an op to show this.

if this pattern is the one that verifies then you’d expect it to correct further south on the system too. 

Yes, the lows have been too round / wrongly tilted up until now but that's changed on this run.

[TSNWK]

Chilly over the post Boxing Day slider snowfields..

[Bricriu]

Sometimes  I wish the GFS had only two runs a day.  The next GFS run will likely be different  again. I think the form horse is a seasonal Christmas for most with any snow confined to Scotland and perhaps high ground in the  North of England. 

Edited December 18, 2023 by Bricriu

[bluearmy]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

A slider has always been an option for Boxing Day with the colder flow Xmas eve and likely ridge to follow being high on the list of possibilities.  I’m surprised it’s taken so long for an op to show this.

if this pattern is the one that verifies then you’d expect it to correct further south on the system too. 

 

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, the lows have been too round / wrongly tilted up until now but that's changed on this run.

I doubt that the gfs 06z op at day 8 has it right when the other ops and ens aren’t ! 

[sundog]

Just now, Bricriu said:

Sometimes  I wish the GFS had only two runs a day.  The next GFS run will likely be different  again. I think the form horse is a seasonal Christmas for most with any snow confined to Scotland and perhapd high ground in the  North of England. 

I'd probably take that if offered.  Anything is better then the current muck atm . As I type damp, cloudy and 13c. Feels like a Dec 2015 day today.

[Northern Sky]

Still chance of a chilly Christmas eve and day. Got to be grateful for small mercies and I'd much rather it were chilly than mild mush. 

The ICON 06Z has backtracked from it's earlier run but it looks to be in a similar place to the GFS at 120hrs so I think it would go on to produce something similar over Christmas eve and day?

[ICE COLD]

16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

A slider has always been an option for Boxing Day with the colder flow Xmas eve and likely ridge to follow being high on the list of possibilities.  I’m surprised it’s taken so long for an op to show this.

if this pattern is the one that verifies then you’d expect it to correct further south on the system too. 

Oh no not a slider this place has been nuts enough and now we’re gonna throw a slider into the mix . It’s north a bit it south a bit = in the end it completely misses to the south lol . Looking forward to it

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

I doubt that the gfs 06z op at day 8 has it right when the other ops and ens aren’t ! 

I Doubt it too but it just shows the possibility, you wouldn't expect a nailed on slider until a very short lead time, however, you surely think its an option based on your post!!

[TSNWK]

6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Oh no not a slider this place has been nuts enough and now we’re gonna throw a slider into the mix . It’s north a bit it south a bit = in the end it completely misses to the south lol . Looking forward to it

Indeed..  bring the slider option on!

[MattStoke]

8 days for that slider to be modelled further south into France 

Edited December 18, 2023 by MattStoke

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I Doubt it too but it just shows the possibility, you wouldn't expect a nailed on slider until a very short lead time, however, you surely think its an option based on your post!!

It’s been an option ever since the Canadian ridge drifting into the Atlantic appeared and the ec was persistent with the esb low. no model usually right so put the two together and a slider becomes an option 

[TEITS]

The slider option is something I mentioned a few days ago.

Just call me Septic Peg.

 

[TSNWK]

6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

8 days for that slider to be modelled further south into France 

Which should in theory increase chances of any Christmas cold being extended 

[Rob 79812010]

I'm very much enthused by this sites latest monthly and their reading ofbthe models going into January. They are seeing real potential deeper into Jan for cold and snow chances. Bearing in mind the possible back loaded winter potential, this looks very eye opening to me. Could all be wrong or course!!!

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Which should in theory increase chances of any Christmas cold being extended 

But dry as turkey for most.

[TSNWK]

Just now, MattStoke said:

But dry as turkey for most.

Get the cold in...  

[In Absence of True Seasons]

1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

No thanks. That's not the least bit festive or Christmassy.

Lol. Agree, but by this point I'd almost take that over our current set up considering we are in double digit maxed anyway but zero sun for days and days.