Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, Uncertainty said:

Clusters in the extended look really interesting: no +nao, lowish euro heights.  No doubt there’ll be some exciting members.

Don’t think there’s any real wintery interest until at least then. But lots thereafter…

Peeps just gotta hang in there ..

Early Jan will be different, it better had be anyway because its utter dross right now  !!

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, Uncertainty said:

Clusters in the extended look really interesting: no +nao, lowish euro heights.  No doubt there’ll be some exciting members.

Don’t think there’s any real wintery interest until at least then. But lots thereafter…

Yes, very interesting, all 3 clusters at day 15 show interest, a definite signal for an Atlantic ridge to push up on the 8-10 day period, here’s the T192-T240:

Cluster 3 shows it here too.  

I don’t think the next serious chase is far away, with more amplified solutions starting to appear like this, it is not as though it is an isolated cluster by day 15.  

[Pembroke Dangler]

8 minutes ago, Uncertainty said:

Clusters in the extended look really interesting: no +nao, lowish euro heights.  No doubt there’ll be some exciting members.

Don’t think there’s any real wintery interest until at least then. But lots thereafter…

I’d like a Cluster 3 please, and fits in with some of What Tamara and MattH mentioned earlier with heights north and east retrogression to Greenland, maybe to early though but I like it

[northwestsnow]

EC 46

Early Jan

[stodge]

Evening all

It seems any lingering hopes of a chilly PM outbreak over Christmas are becoming restricted to the most northern hills and mountains.

Twas ever thus...

The post-Christmas evolution remains far from clear - the straightforward sine wave of ridges and troughs is one option but signs also of other possibilities and options. I continue to note the strong 10 HPA warming signal from the GFS 12Z OP and arguably 12Z Control might be where many would like us to go into 2024.

[swfc]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 46

Early Jan

Good chart but it's a perennial let down 

[Chasbrown]

24 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Hi peeps,

Hope everyone is well. By looking at the models no doubt there is a bit of sombre mood in here. Where do we stand and what else is yet to be thrown at us?

If anyone remembers sometime last week I posted my thoughts and said that once we saw the appearance of the Iberian heights it was alarm bells. I am no expert by all means and I made this comment by looking at past failures. At that time I said that if these heights set up in southern Europe it was most likely trouble for us coldies, and to some extent that has come to reality from what we are seeing in the output at the moment. These heights are a disaster to get any cold into the uk unless they move north or northeast. 

So my thoughts today from the models going forward.

The only way we are going to get out of this rut is a shake up of the current setup. These Iberian heights have to open its ears and hear the word GET OU. Tilll this does not happen I am afraid we are going to be stuck here. I do think these heights will gradually move and then maybe we can look for a new setup that will then deliver for us coldies.

 

It is still a waiting game and we just got to suck our frustration and get through this period. The good thing is time is with us so that is a bonus we are not even halfway yet. So let’s just hold our heads firm and let this mess pass and hopefully after the next 10 days or so we will start to see some changes. 
 

take care all

THE WAIT FOR OUR WINTER WONDERLAND CONTINUES 

regards
 

Positive thinking I like but sadly time is not on our side. One third of winter gone we can safely say. January looking like more of the same. 

[Mike Poole]

11 minutes ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

I’d like a Cluster 3 please, and fits in with some of What Tamara and MattH mentioned earlier with heights north and east retrogression to Greenland, maybe to early though but I like it

Cluster 3 in the extended also links well with what we saw in the run up to day 10 on the GFS and GEM today, so it is possible to see a starting point for such an evolution.

I think one possible thing to watch out for is for such an evolution to occur, stutter, and then need a second bite at the cherry to get the amplification to initiate a cold spell.  I think there are things that need to be shifted (like Euro heights, for example) that might take more than one nibble, that’s all I’m saying!

Edited December 19, 2023 by Mike Poole

[northwestsnow]

EC 46 gets better 

week 2 of jan

[MJB]

9 minutes ago, swfc said:

Good chart but it's a perennial let down 

It certainly is , changes every single time it goes to print .................so to speak 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, MJB said:

It certainly is , changes every single time it goes to print .................so to speak 

You and me will be hoping it's got it right Jam looks amazing 

[ICE COLD]

Just now, MJB said:

It certainly is , changes every single time it goes to print .................so to speak 

To be fair it has been very consistent for multiple runs  with heights towards Greenland . Let’s hope it’s right and not a garden path Jobby .

[Bricriu]

18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 46

Early Jan

If the EC46 is correct- which I have my doubts about- is this based on the MJO moving to phase 1 and some other background factors like mountain torque events?

[TSNWK]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 46 gets better 

week 2 of jan

How is that better? Shows average heights to our south. The average there is high...

[E17boy]

9 minutes ago, Chasbrown said:

Positive thinking I like but sadly time is not on our side. One third of winter gone we can safely say. January looking like more of the same. 

I am not sure how with great confidence your saying we can safely say January looking like more of the same. We are still in December, trying to forcast 1 week away has been a challenge this week, but would love to know what made you make that statement not having a dig or anything just out of curiosity.

I still think there is plenty of winter left, yes if we were in March and we had a similar set up then I would be worrying about how much winter is left not in the 3rd week of December. 
 

regards

[damianslaw]

31 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, very interesting, all 3 clusters at day 15 show interest, a definite signal for an Atlantic ridge to push up on the 8-10 day period, here’s the T192-T240:

Cluster 3 shows it here too.  

I don’t think the next serious chase is far away, with more amplified solutions starting to appear like this, it is not as though it is an isolated cluster by day 15.  

Wouldn't be surprised to see the output over christmas start kicking the iberian heights aside - I'm not seeing a raging PV and storm after storm, which often beds in during late December. There is stirring of a more amplified flow as we end the year..

[bluearmy]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 46 gets better 

week 2 of jan

Problem I see is that Iberian heights are high every week 

that makes it v tough to advect proper cold across the U.K. - especially further south. But not impossible given that heights are also expected to be be often anomolously high to our west and also over greeny.  Without the Iberian heights the charts are only a euro low anom away from what coldies would draw in winter ! 

[WYorksWeather]

Definitely looks like the cold Christmas is pretty much out of the question except in the far north - modelling seems pretty confident of this with the number of cold outliers having dropped away to almost none in the south.

I think looking into the New Year at this stage is little more than speculation. Some wanting to write off the whole of January, others seeming quite confident that things will be different. I think we need to see early signals on the ensembles at day 10 before interest picks up.

The lack of any real interest from the ensembles does mean that the chance of widespread cold between now and the New Year is pretty low, so it will most likely be the New Year that we're looking at. But writing off anything beyond that seems crazy to me.

[bluearmy]

The NH profile on gefs and eps in two weeks looks much more interesting than for a good few runs 

plenty of amplification on view and together with the mobility that we still see, could be some wedges on view in the new year 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 46 gets better 

week 2 of jan

That’s as strong a signal for a Greenland block you’re likely to see on these charts in all honesty.

Would be good to come to fruition in core winter.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, Chasbrown said:

Positive thinking I like but sadly time is not on our side. One third of winter gone we can safely say. January looking like more of the same. 

Upper air temperatures in the NH reach their lowest point on average during the last week of Jan. Thermal lag.

The inverse occurs last week of July.

[TSNWK]

6 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

That’s as strong a signal for a Greenland block you’re likely to see on these charts in all honesty.

Would be good to come to fruition in core winter.

But what's the point of Greenland heights If any cold is deflected from us because of average heights to our south..... the average to our south is high .I'm really not seeing the  joy with ecm.. we need green to our south not white to work in tandem with Greenland pink

[Chasbrown]

Is there anywhere I can find historic charts please? I'm looking for 1st December 1985. Thanks. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Chasbrown said:

Is there anywhere I can find historic charts please? I'm looking for 1st December 1985. Thanks. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

But what's the point of Greenland heights If any cold is deflected from us because of average heights to our south..... the average to our south is high .I'm really not seeing the  joy with ecm.. we need green to our south not white to work in tandem with Greenland pink

It puts us in with a shout.

A strong trough over Europe would be enough to overcome weak to moderate heights to our S anyway in most cases. It’s not showing above average heights to our S so that is a positive.

Edited December 19, 2023 by Cheshire Freeze