Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[MJB]

15 minutes ago, BartyHater said:

Many more positive signs for cold across the 00 suite as we go into the New Year, but there’s still a significant amount of scatter on the GFS 00 ENS and the Op is again one of the coldest members later.

As ever more runs needed but for now the trend is our friend for the New Year….hopefully it’ll continue to improve after what’s been a ridiculously mild Christmas for many of us.

 

I'm surprised you haven't mentioned your favoured model ECM ....well not that surprised.

Its showing great potential for some in the medium term and not the far reaches of FI 

[Chesil View]

26 minutes ago, BartyHater said:

Many more positive signs for cold across the 00 suite as we go into the New Year, but there’s still a significant amount of scatter on the GFS 00 ENS and the Op is again one of the coldest members later.

As ever more runs needed but for now the trend is our friend for the New Year….hopefully it’ll continue to improve after what’s been a ridiculously mild Christmas for many of us.

 

The op is often the coldest member when it is the trendsetter for a change to colder conditions

Edited December 26, 2023 by Chesil View

[chris55]

Nice Boxing Day charts this morning. The Iceland wedge enough to disrupt the zonal flow south. 

 

Hopefully gain some consistency as we head through the next few days

 

[Ladyofthestorm]

1 hour ago, That ECM said:

Disagreement in the output, can’t work out how we are going to go cold. 

For me seeing ecm bought the biggest smile. T120 shows the start of pressure rise. Yep T120. we are a long way from seeing small details but that can wait.

 

To be honest , Scotland and North England  is already there. Ragged and already fragmented  PV . It really isnt  going to take too much. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Not sure if I should post here..but the weatheronline website really ramping things up for the start of 2024..cold snow,severe frost for start 2024

[MJB]

4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Not sure if I should post here..but the weatheronline website really ramping things up for the start of 2024..cold snow,severe frost for start 2024

Changes so often, I think they take the info off GFS, make of that what you will 

[Ali1977]

9 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Not sure if I should post here..but the weatheronline website really ramping things up for the start of 2024..cold snow,severe frost for start 2024

It’s also saying Notable snow in the locations shown by the ECM, I guess that’s the model they use. Hopefully a chase that actually comes to fruition

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

It’s also saying Notable snow in the locations shown by the ECM, I guess that’s the model they use. Hopefully a chase that actually comes to fruition

Need it to shift south 100 miles…

I’ll get my coat

[tight isobar]

Good to see the MST’s also coming strongly onboard this morning.. the drag is on … 

[Daniel*]

 Pretty big change overnight EPS no longer favouring a mild start to New Year. 
 

 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

The charts could be showing duff data due to lack of Xmas flights data.

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters this morning, T192-T240:

The majority cluster building a wedge near Iceland, GFS had something similar this morning, so this gives opportunities for a cold shot a little earlier than the main evolution.  Cluster 2 notable for the Russian high, cluster 3 remains westerly.

T264+:

This the timeframe of most interest, cluster 2 builds the ridge through Greenland, cluster 3 pushes the amplification more towards Scandi, you can see the average of these might lead to an anomaly in the Greenland/Iceland area as we are seeing.  

[Battleground Snow]

Changes seem to be happening in the mid term, perhaps models factoring in the mjo finally kicking into a high amplitude, with the 7-9 day lag.

Pretty big change in Atlantic in the 6 hours between icon runs.

[Nick F]

Trend GIF for last 4 EC high res runs for 12z 1st Jan show the shift south overnight of the jet stream & consequently track of lows towards NW Europe for 1st few days of New Year. That wedge of +ve heights suddenly appears to the SE of Greenland on 00z run:

Edited December 26, 2023 by Nick F

[winterof79]

11 hours ago, Allseasons-Si said:

Does anyone want a hurricane on there Potuguese Holiday!

Im back Thursday so sod them

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Im back Thursday so sod them

@Tamara how to make friends eh?

[Vikos]

12 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The charts could be showing duff data due to lack of Xmas flights data.

Won’t agree to that..

as far as I know, after 240h data input is cut to -30% less…

[Harsh Climate]

GFS 6z trickling out, hopefully, this developing low can dig a bit further south than on the GFS00z run, will get us off to a good start

[TEITS]

5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

@Tamara how to make friends eh?

I haven't seen Tamara post for a while. I might be still have my reservations on teleconnections but I always like to read Tamara's thoughts. She is someone I have huge admiration for and her posts are always a delight to read. I only wish I could be as articulate.

Getting back on topic. My only concern about the output is the timing of this change in the models occurring over Xmas. I always say im dubious of the output during Xmas Day, Boxing day and it would be hypocritical of me to not mention this just because of the cold output it is showing.

[Battleground Snow]

Look at the difference over Scandinavia between gfs runs.

Looks like there is going to be some big model swings over the coming runs.

[Ali1977]

Bitter easterly over scandy , can we tap early into that early doors!! 

[Harsh Climate]

4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Look at the difference over Scandinavia between gfs runs.

Looks like there is going to be some big model swings over the coming runs.

Gfs 6z seems to take away chance of snow over midlands/ central southern England at least earlier on this run but should still be good later on for long term cold/snow

Edited December 26, 2023 by Harsh Climate

[IDO]

Looking at the ensembles, the scatter is as early as D5-6, highlighting the uncertainty for the next ten days. We will see greater model volatility because there is no forcing, just wedges, their strength, polarity and positions. Look at the wedges 0z v 06z v ECM v UKMO (D6):

Subtle differences have a more significant knock-on effect

 

[TSNWK]

If the low to our west would only head south east it really would be something special….

[Harsh Climate]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

If the low to our west would only head south east it really would be something special….

I think it will do it but well into FI, unfortunately. Still positive signals we are seeing.