Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[Alexis]

Variations on a theme, which is what we always get at this stage.

Dont think the ECM's solution is going to be the right one personally - it's a bit on its own.

All looking more positive than it was though.

[andy989]

50 minutes ago, johncam said:

Sorry guys , not getting the enthusiasm,  what we getting out of that at day 10 , a frost , was expecting more.

Would you rather stick with the wind and rain we have now then? I’ll take a frost over this anyday 

[Weather-history]

Echoes of a yesteryear?

 

[northwestsnow]

Mean at 168 

 

[northwestsnow]

Mean day 10

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T192-T240:

(The first two timeframes had just one cluster.)  The op and control are in different clusters so we can’t see how the op would have progressed beyond day 10!  

Cluster 1, the majority with 22 members, looks like the GEM to me, cluster 2 seems to connect with the Arctic high and is further north, if not as strong heights.  Cluster 3 which contains the op (well it sort of does, because the op didn’t really look like that to me!) has the least northwards progression.  I reckoned GEM solution was about the mid point earlier tonight, and this seems to back that up.

T264+ not yet updated. 

Edited December 29, 2023 by Mike Poole

[Chesil View]

5 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Echoes of a yesteryear?

 

Was just digging out the same chart Weather History.

I,d certainly take the first 20 days of Jan 1985 starting a week or so later.

Edited December 29, 2023 by Chesil View

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Mean day 10

That is a very very nice upgrade - things moving nicely

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

That is a very very nice upgrade - things moving nicely

Yes and I'm glad the det was faulty so I'm happy 

I suspect easterlies are cropping up..

[Gowon]

JMA

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Chesil View said:

Was just digging out the same chart Weather History.

I,d certainly take the first 20 days of Jan 1985 starting a week or later.

Amazing look how far south the jet is on that old run..and that high is absolutely huge!

[Mike Poole]

Clusters T264+:

These look better than I was expecting, I think, and better than GEFS.

Cluster 1 has the high sufficiently north to hint at putting the UK in an easterly, although the day 15 chart looks less good.

What I wasn’t expecting is how far north the block is on clusters 2 and 3, which look very good.  Cluster 3 has a retrogression look about it.

Edited December 29, 2023 by Mike Poole

[sebastiaan1973]

Sorry, to bring some bad news, in week three the anomaly disappears (a lot less) to our NW. 

But we must remember these are based on 0h data. 

Edited December 29, 2023 by sebastiaan1973

[MJB]

8th - 15th

Don't want the HP any closer thank you, but you'd take that at this range 

Signal weakens for a bit before establishing again  in Feb 

22nd -29th 

29-5th Feb

5th - 12th

 

[johncam]

1 hour ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Beggars can't be choosers

[That ECM]

14 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Echoes of a yesteryear?

 

Have you got nhp of 1985 please? Can’t find my link. TIA

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Sorry, to bring some bad news, in week three the anomaly disappears (a lot less) to our NW. 

But we must remember these are based on 0h data. 

Bad news ?

UK has a - surface temp anomaly for week 1 and week 2

 

[MJB]

3 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Sorry, to bring some bad news, in week three the anomaly disappears (a lot less) to our NW. 

But we must remember these are based on 0h data. 

I wouldn't worry about the signal weakening, the ppn charts suggest we are fairly dry, so certainly no Atlantic onslaught. It is certainly nice to see the block reappear for Feb......................though don't hang your hat on anything past 10 days 

[Mike Poole]

Zonal winds:

Just a couple of stragglers going for a cheeky SSW now, mean only just gets 8m/s, so some backtrack that!  But I think there is a new cluster to watch around the 15th-17th Jan.

[Weather-history]

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Have you got nhp of 1985 please? Can’t find my link. TIA

[Mike Poole]

Just now, MJB said:

I wouldn't worry about the signal weakening, the ppn charts suggest we are fairly dry, so certainly no Atlantic onslaught. It is certainly nice to see the block reappear for Feb......................though don't hang your hat on anything past 10 days 

Without the SSW having happened, it is quite likely in my view that the amplification subsides as we go through the less favourable MJO phases (with lag) and then reasserts itself into Feb, so intuitively the 46 picture makes some sense.  

[MJB]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Without the SSW having happened, it is quite likely in my view that the amplification subsides as we go through the less favourable MJO phases (with lag) and then reasserts itself into Feb, so intuitively the 46 picture makes some sense.  

Well as i learnt last Winter EC 46 was absolute pants it really was. 

Looking further than 1 week to 2 weeks is really FI time and JFF as per most models but we shall see 

[AO-]

Not really excited this evening about the models. Still, taking the 8th of January as a benchmark, the models stil get cold. However, looking at the mid term, it has deteriorated a lot. Putting the 00 and the 12 EPSs below. Of course for our location. The operational is rather similar, but the cold members have decreased by number in the mid term. 

00z 

 

12z.

 

Synoptically I wasn't excited either. The ridge at day ten is nice, but still at day ten. The possibility of something cold by the 4th has disappeared like snow in the sun. Before the 8th it is often mild with two digit temperatures for here. 

 

Edited December 29, 2023 by AO-

[Mike Poole]

Just now, MJB said:

Well as i learnt last Winter EC 46 was absolute pants it really was. 

Looking further than 1 week to 2 weeks is really FI time and JFF as per most models but we shall see 

Fair point.  To be honest, now it doesn’t go off the back of the 15 day EPS, and now it runs from T0 at a quarter of the horizontal resolution, I cannot possibly see how it can be anything but worse than the old version!

[Ladyofthestorm]

I was under the impression from the models  that a SSW is going to happen , it's  just unlikely to have any significant impact on the  troposphere therefore zonal winds.... yet. 

Edited December 29, 2023 by Ladyofthestorm
Missed the un