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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

MATTWOLVES 3

By MATTWOLVES 3
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion. Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like some localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. 

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly
 

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Posted by lorenzo,

You know what would be cool - if folks could take it back to reviewing the models, looking at the output, posting up some thoughts. Importantly, without adding in a layer of spiky thoughts about what others may or may not be doing, or howthey should or should not be behaving, one liners, agendas, this ramp, that ramp. We have another great period of model watching ahead, excitement is all good. Trolling, sniping, various - that person should be this or that - it's quite boring, and det

Please have a read of this post and bear it in mind when posting.

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Scandinavian High. Experienced

Scandinavian High.

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Pathetic ensembles for January with all the hype.

IMG_1174.png

Hi could you explain more detail please not sure what its reading thanks.

Edited by Scandinavian High.
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CoventryWeather Seasoned

CoventryWeather

Posted
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, heat, sunshine, hail. Basically Seasonal.
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids
Posted

Really need a few members going towards -10 for a decent cold spell. I know I will get hit with all sorts of stuff, but -5/6/7 at the peak of winter is pretty abysmal, considering the extent of cold weather nearby, Scandi for instance. 

Once again, the GFS output can be placed in the bin as early as t90, as it completely blows up a small trough on Tuesday. No model is interested in this, as the jet will be too weak to do this. 

Unless it's a trend (as someone will most likely say :D).

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ItNeverSnowsInWindsor Experienced

ItNeverSnowsInWindsor

Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
Posted
7 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Hi could you explain more detail please not sure what its reading thanks.

We had -10’s before the beast from the east in 2018 and even that just delivered 1” snow in Windsor!

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
10 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Pathetic ensembles for January with all the hype.

IMG_1174.png

I’ve personally never put much stock in the ensembles. They can be as fickle as the op runs at times.

Only takes one of the stragglers to have it nailed and the whole set will shift. Seen it too many times…

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

We had -10’s before the beast from the east in 2018 and even that just delivered 1” snow in Windsor!

LOL oh that's funny, why don't you just compare the current output to 1963?

Why have you done a comparison with 2018 ?

That's a head shaker, sorry but it really is .

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted

The Big 3 at 168

ECM                                                                   UKMO                                                         GFS 

image.thumb.png.d2abe256bfc5fb9f804959a03744a8a9.png       image.thumb.png.0fd7e2ade81f7b07b9bfc55b702858e4.png     image.thumb.png.91d59b2c758b29e0197e750335109385.png

Just look at the difference, I think it was Warren who said 192h is the reliable timeframe, the above is 168 and quite a difference, would you say UKMO is slightly behind the other two?

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)

Day 7, things about to get better 👌 getting closer - WAA up the west of that low at the tip of Greenland 

IMG_2072.png

Edited by Ali1977
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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted (edited)

image.thumb.png.e60929e616a5a38665365d5148996049.png
 

something serious to develop from here….my reading of this is anticipating one hell of a run

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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ItNeverSnowsInWindsor Experienced

ItNeverSnowsInWindsor

Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, MJB said:

LOL oh that's funny, why don't you just compare the current output to 1963?

Why have you done a comparison with 2018 ?

That's a head shaker, sorry but it really is .

There is no agreement with any severe cold spell like there was in 2018 where you could see a bunch of ensembles members around -10c or lower.

This one looks like a dudd with a bit of high pressure but welcome dry weather.

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
15 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

I’ve personally never put much stock in the ensembles. They can be as fickle as the op runs at times.

Only takes one of the stragglers to have it nailed and the whole set will shift. Seen it too many times…

I wish we really had seen it too many times lol. 

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January Snowstorm Accomplished

January Snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Posted
Just now, TSNWK said:

Could be a goodie.. much better climb into Greenland.. and look north will it drop over us..

image.thumb.png.4fdfc7a3cda7cf5db5d5b70f33c7ca63.png

If this is a good chart our standards have dropped a lot over the years

image.thumb.png.355ec54a3a178a39684bc5f0a65dadae.png

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted

Let's look at 144 from the ECM,GFS and UK

 

ECM                                                            UK                                                                 GFS 

image.thumb.png.5273e01de4eae4db0d0cba43752784a3.png     image.thumb.png.892b631b141233b89fcab0ce32b9807e.png     image.thumb.png.3953779aa4628b8581f57dadc1207fa9.png

All 3 fairly similar in the Atlantic , the LP's in our neck of the woods vary in shape and size. About as close as we get I'd say

 

 

 

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Sparky68 Community Regular

Sparky68

Posted
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Frosty Mornings
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
Posted
Just now, January Snowstorm said:

If this is a good chart our standards have dropped a lot over the years

image.thumb.png.355ec54a3a178a39684bc5f0a65dadae.png

We are all desperate for some great winter weather so understandable.

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted

High pressure over the UK looks like a safe bet in 10 days time. Cold, moderate frosts. Then we need retrogression if we are to see anything exciting thereafter. I'm reserving judgement on that. 

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lorenzo Maestro

lorenzo

Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
Posted (edited)

This is a new look for the break..

image.thumb.png.b891272ae12a72180cfcdb048d61001f.png

Well it is the Friday 18z - ( the Saturday 00z and 06z are usually absolute dubiety- 12z to 12z is the way to go for Friday into Saturdays ( years of wondering WTAF) ) 

Edited by lorenzo
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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
Just now, January Snowstorm said:

If this is a good chart our standards have dropped a lot over the years

image.thumb.png.355ec54a3a178a39684bc5f0a65dadae.png

Read the post correctly please.. could* as maybe in the future days.. not an isolated chart.. let’s see how it develops into day 10

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Troubleatmill Community Regular

Troubleatmill

Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
Posted
31 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Pathetic ensembles for January with all the hype.

IMG_1174.png

I think it's important to remember that we are looking at possibilities rather than forecasts at the moment.

The EC ensembles, with far more members, highlight this, perhaps better than the GEFS.

ecmwf-preston-gb-536n-28.thumb.jpeg.a472cd32633294acc630dae05445cb27.jpeg

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AO- Aficionado

AO-

Posted
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Cold with a lot of snow
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
Posted

The 192 looks like a potent chart. If the lp near Greenland is heading Southeast (which in my opinion will), again a serious block might be present over Scandinavia. This in combination with ridging over the Atlantic could lead to something serious.

GFSOPEU18_192_1.png

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

If this is a good chart our standards have dropped a lot over the years

image.thumb.png.355ec54a3a178a39684bc5f0a65dadae.png

So you take a still…not bad.  But so misleading as regards to the build up and movement…..it’s a very good chart….LP to dive NW to SE….

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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SollyOlly Rising Star

SollyOlly

Posted
  • Location: Solihull
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal (but not excessive heat); love cold winters!
  • Location: Solihull
Posted
1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

High pressure over the UK looks like a safe bet in 10 days time. Cold, moderate frosts. Then we need retrogression if we are to see anything exciting thereafter. I'm reserving judgement on that. 

But brother, given the crap that so many of us have endured in 'winter' in recent years, I'd even accept that...! Although as some people do say to me, my aspirations are sometimes a little low...(sadly, my sister says that to me about my wife...!!)

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