SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

[Whether Idle]

The forecasted synpotics have been bellowing for the last day or two that there will be convective activity (albeit nothing dramatic)- 1-2 cms in prone areas such as Kent.  So lets see if this  ("low grade event" ) in the grand scheme of snow events, pans out as can be expected...

Edited January 7 by Whether Idle

[Mizzle]

My first snowflake is due 1pm on Monday!  

[Kentspur]

If theres ever a chance for low lands of NW Kent to see snow its with this wind direction and minus double figure upper air temperatures! Last year took me by surprise what will Monday bring? I wont get my hopes up but by experience these ENEly flows do usually overachieve my expectations. Usually its a damp squib here while 2 miles south or east of here is under the white stuff

Edited January 7 by Kentspur

[lassie23]

Mapped: When and where snow is forecast to hit the UK - Manchester Evening News

WWW.MANCHESTEREVENINGNEWS.CO.UK

---

Up to seven inches of snow is set to cover parts of the country

I like the way the quotes from the met office spokesman do not match the headline of the article

[dallas]

3 hours ago, Kentspur said:

If theres ever a chance for low lands of NW Kent to see snow its with this wind direction and minus double figure upper air temperatures! Last year took me by surprise what will Monday bring? I wont get my hopes up but by experience these ENEly flows do usually overachieve my expectations. Usually its a damp squib here while 2 miles south or east of here is under the white stuff

Met office are now mentioning snow showers off the Thames estuary

[Tom Montalbano]

9 hours ago, Hotspur62 said:

Things starting to look a little more interesting Monday into Tuesday for possible streamers.They won’t be as strong as some of the past as Tom has highlighted in the above posts recently but some in Kent,SE London ,parts of E Surrey and Sussex may get a light covering.Overall though next week fairly cold but dry with max temps in the 2-5 range and lows in the +1 to -4 range in clearer spells.After the last 2.5 months of continuous rain I will take that all day.Still likely that this time next week we could see temperatures fall a little further and snow threat increases but that is a long way off and we will know more by middle of next week.In meantime let’s see if some in this thread will see their local landscapes turn white early next week.Good luck to everyone

A very good Morning, all. 

Yes H62, I couldn't have summed up the current situation better myself.

And by the way H, I will get around to replying to your very kind P.M., regarding my recent health issues.

And as you are literally down the Road from my youngest Sister, who lives close to Farnborough Village, I will hear about it if it Snows there!!

The model Thread for our newest Members, must be a nightmare to try and decipher.

Having been a Member since late January 2005, I soon realised you had to sort the "wheat from the chaff", especially at this time of Year when there was a possibility of Snow, in the offing.

I find a lot of the posting that takes place at this time of the Year when there is a possibility of Snow, is just "hopecasting".

I only take notice of very few Posters, three of which are Members of our Region, notably the 2 Nicks [Finnis and ex S.E. Pat, Sussex], and Captain Shortwave.

I would also like to give a shout to our own EAGLE EYE.

I love E.E.'s enthusiasm for his favourite Weather types, and his incredible technical knowledge, for someone so young.

That wasn't meant to sound condescending E.E., I am genuinely impressed by your enthusiasm and knowledge, for Meteorology.  

I used to post a lot in the Model Discussion Thread but gave that up as a bad job, after I was accused of "Guilt Tripping" and when the very amenable S.E. Meteorologist Ian Currie was described as "some bloke off the Telly", by a respected Member of this Forum.

That couldn't be further from the truth, actually.

Although I havn't spoken to Ian recently, he was and maybe still is, an official Met Office observer.

Ian used to have 2 Weather Stations, when he lived in Old Coulsdon, Surrey. One in his back Garden, and One on his allotment, at the Frost Hollow of Chipstead Valley.

A few Years ago, Ian moved to Storrington in West Sussex, where as far as I know, he is still an official Met Office observer.

Ian is also a Member of the Royal Meteorological Society.

Therefore, with that sort of CV, I thought it was very disingenuous to describe  him as "some bloke off the Telly".

I'm sure the handful of our Region's Members that took advantage of his very generous offer, which included a copy of -

 and a few copies of his Quarterly Magazine - 

will have found their hobby in Meteorology greatly enhanced, as mine was back in the 1990's, when I first stumbled across a copy of the Kent Weather Book, when I was browsing at Books in W.H. Smiths in my home Town of Bromley.

Right, it's time for my Blood Pressure medication, and my early Morning Breakfast but I'll end this Post with a couple of links to Radar Websites.

The first being Meteox:

Rain radar & weather forecast | Meteoradar

The second being Buienradar:

Buienradar.nl - Buienradar.nl - Weer - Actuele neerslag, weerbericht, weersverwachting, sneeuwradar en satellietbeelden

As I expected with a steering flow of N.E,, it's the East of Kent that is in the firing line for a Streamer, we're not in Thames Streamer Territory, the steering flow needs to be specifically from the E.N.E., for those of us that live in the Thames Corridor area. Specifically, South Essex, North Kent and on into East and South East London and when they are very potent, they can infiltrate much further W.S.W.

Regards,

Tom Q.  

Edited January 7 by Tom Quintavalle

[Tom Montalbano]

Morning all, again. 

Whilst having my early Morning Breakfast, I was watching Simon Lee's Weather Forecast for the next few Days.

At this point I will post up a Youtube clip of the Met Office Forecast, from yesterday Evening presented by Greg Dewhurst:

Something Simon Lee alluded to was that Tomorrow Morning, there is a possibility as the flow turns more to the E.N.E., those hillier areas in N.W. Kent close to the London area, could see a little settling Snow but I wouldn't get too excited.

Below, are a few charts from the ECM 00z Run, for the UK.

As you can see a lobe of -10c/-12c looks to enter the Southern North Sea/Thames Estuary and with a temperature differential of around +20c, could well kickstart a Streamer Tomorrow Morning:

 /  

And with the Steering Flow turning a tad more to the E.N.E., any Shower "train" that does form, could well move across the Thames Corridor of South Essex, N.W. Kent and parts of East and South East London. 

If this Streamer does form it could give a little settling Snow over the hills of the North Downs, in N.W. Kent. 

But for some of us it would be the first Snow this Winter, although the small window of opportunity is likely to be very brief.

Over the next couple of Days terms such as "feels like" and windchill enter Forecasts, as the wind picks up over our Region.

Looking further ahead the area of High Pressure located over the North of the U.K., looks to strengthen and with it the threat of Shower activity, disappears.

Don't think there is any point in looking further than next Weekend but for the rest of the coming Week it looks to be dry, cold with the Winter hazards being some Frost and Fog but very little chance of Snow.

Just poked my head into the Model Discussion Thread but soon came out of it again, as it has descended into it's usual state of contradictory posting.

Regards,

Tom Q.   

Edited January 7 by Tom Quintavalle

[Mark wheeler]

[3cats]

Good morning, whilst Mr 3 Cats heads out for a run and I sit here thinking about a 2nd coffee, I’ve just looked at the forecast for tomorrow here and we have snow showers most of the day at a 95% chance. Looking forward to trying to get home from London if that comes off! 

[Floatylight]

Those showers just not pushing in far enough.... ooo so close.

Some in Kent are catching them though??

[Whether Idle]

Just now, Floatylight said:

Those showers just not pushing in far enough.... ooo so close.

Some in Kent are catching them though??

Raining hard here.

[Floatylight]

3 minutes ago, Whether Idle said:

Raining hard here.

With these temps I'd of expected them to be snow....

Edited January 7 by Floatylight
Oh actually not as low as I thought.

[Whether Idle]

2 minutes ago, Floatylight said:

With these temps I'd of expected them to be snow....

Its 5c here,  not a chance.  The snow risk is from around 3am to midnight tomorrow with the key time here in Dover being Monday morning. Its a 1-2 cms thing on hills, not very exciting in historical terms,,,, but we live in challenging times,,, where snow is becoming ever more vanishingly rare, so on that basis its now something of note! LOL.

[Floatylight]

7 minutes ago, Whether Idle said:

Its 5c here,  not a chance.  The snow risk is from around 3am to midnight tomorrow with the key time here in Dover being Monday morning. Its a 1-2 cms thing on hills, not very exciting in historical terms,,,, but we live in challenging times,,, where snow is becoming ever more vanishingly rare, so on that basis its now something of note! LOL.

Yes I was looking at tomorrow( wrong day) on my nw  lol

Sadly my weather station has broken...

 

[colonelks]

We’re in a little village on top of the North Downs, really hoping that we see some snow tomorrow. Met Office has us down for a few hours of heavy snow…

We typically do well in these types of setup.

[snowray]

1 minute ago, colonelks said:

We’re in a little village on top of the North Downs, really hoping that we see some snow tomorrow. Met Office has us down for a few hours of heavy snow…

We typically do well in these types of setup.

Any altitude is always a big plus of course, how high up are you there?

[colonelks]

2 minutes ago, snowray said:

Any altitude is always a big plus of course, how high up are you there?

We’re at 750ft, highest point is 900ft! Never fails to amaze me when we drive down to somewhere much lower how much less (if any!) snow there is.

My father in law is in Crowborough and they also do well.

[lottiekent]

Annoying the dew pints are just a little too high this morning otherwise we’d be full of posts about surprise snowfall. Maybe the highest points in Kent might be seeing some very wet snow or sleet this morning? But here, just regular rain (as usual)

Temp: 3.8c

Dew Point: 3.4c

Rain: 4.09mm (and can hear it on the roof so more to be added to that total)

[Coopsy]

11 minutes ago, colonelks said:

We’re in a little village on top of the North Downs, really hoping that we see some snow tomorrow. Met Office has us down for a few hours of heavy snow…

We typically do well in these types of setup.

Areas like Tatsfield/Knockholt etc should do quite well if it all aligns. 

[snowray]

3 minutes ago, colonelks said:

We’re at 750ft, highest point is 900ft! Never fails to amaze me when we drive down to somewhere much lower how much less (if any!) snow there is.

My father in law is in Crowborough and they also do well.

Wow, that's close to 250 meters, really high up for the SE, not surprised you do so well for snow.

[sunnijim]

Having moved to Saltdean in 2016, I'm yet to fully understand the mechanics of any streamer activity that would benefit this area.

I'm well versed on my old haunt in Hastings, many years of enjoyment if things hit correctly( the cut off was generally Eastbourne on a  direct Northeaster)

The same goes for Lewisham, think the Thames streamer requires East/ Northeast?

Feel a bit in no man's land here fir the potential event tomorrow.

I think streamers would generally fizzle this far west on the South Coast.

If I had to come down on my best option near Brighton,it might need more East mixed into the Northeast to nuliffie the land track a little.

 

 

[Harveyslugger]

Is it actually snowing in the SE?or is it wrong

[snowblind]

What I don't understand is with the models showing 850 temps of between -10 and -12 across us tomorrow coming from the east how come the met office is forecasting highs of 3 tomorrow? I would have expected highs to be 0 at most. Maybe they're just overestimating as they tend to do in cold spells . 

If we can't get an ice day with 850s that low I give up.

[MAF]

1 hour ago, 3cats said:

Good morning, whilst Mr 3 Cats heads out for a run and I sit here thinking about a 2nd coffee, I’ve just looked at the forecast for tomorrow here and we have snow showers most of the day at a 95% chance. Looking forward to trying to get home from London if that comes off! 

added to the tube strikes, it might be fun... not  

[lawrenk]

Based on the mood in the main thread this morning it looks like we may need to hope for the best tonight and tomorrow!

Personally, a NE “Kent/Medway streamer” works best for me. Jan 2010 was the best for that. Nothing beats that constant flow, with every shower topping up the snow from the last one.