Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[booferking]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

It will be a UK high that’s what’s expected followed by retrogression to Greenland. No easterly has ever really been an option b4 the 14th/15th

Who are what model has forecasted retrogression to Greenland ?

Is that gospel?

Edited December 31, 2023 by booferking

[Daniel*]

Block gained some latitude 168 > 192hrs, it would definitely be cold on surface.

[Met4Cast]

If we can’t get a favourable synoptic pattern despite favourable background forcing then I’m really at a loss & it’s a concern for future winters. 

Are we really at a point now where the only hope of getting a decent UK cold spell & decent high latitude blocking is to rely on a SSW? If that is a case then this is going to become an incredibly frustrating hobby during the winter months. 

Shame. Definitely seeing shifts in the outlook now, there’s no real denying that. 

[IDO]

ECM op very similar to GEFS mean at D8:

D8-16 GFS mean: 

[booferking]

11 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

What’s so bad with uk high pressure could move north later on.

Also could move south Zonal winds to increase mid month.

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

If we can’t get a favourable synoptic pattern despite favourable background forcing then I’m really at a loss & it’s a concern for future winters. 

Are we really at a point now where the only hope of getting a decent UK cold spell & decent high latitude blocking is to rely on a SSW? If that is a case then this is going to become an incredibly frustrating hobby during the winter months. 

Shame. Definitely seeing shifts in the outlook now, there’s no real denying that. 

It’s the following week mate b4 we see retrogression. You can’t deny the met have called a uk high to retrogress towards the 15th. Just a matter of timing

[Methuselah]

Just now, booferking said:

Also could move south Zonal winds to increase mid month.

Are you asking to be 'shot at dawn'? 

[mountain shadow]

13 minutes ago, Harveyslugger said:

A UK high that would bring lovely sunny and Frosty weather

Indeed it would, but it's snow I'm after. Might need to book a trip to Greece for that.

[That ECM]

6 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

It wont. Look how much energy is toppling over it. The rest of this run will either sustain the UK high or bring in the Atlantic.

The high sunk north.

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

It’s the following week mate b4 we see retrogression. You can’t deny the met have called a uk high to retrogress towards the 15th. Just a matter of timing

We’ll see, my patience for UK winters is wearing increasingly thin now, the modelling is absolutely useless

[January Snowstorm]

Ecm 850s at 216hrs.

I'm frozen just looking at it  

[Daniel*]

At 216 hours you’re comparing apples with oranges ECMWF holds the block.

[Kasim Awan]

Looks primed to sink into the Iberian high which looks very strong, preventing easterlies from developing. Anything particularly wintry in the next 10-12 days is becoming increasingly unlikely. Whether we can shift from this to easterlies in the subsequent 7 days or so is very uncertain.

[January Snowstorm]

Just now, Daniel* said:

At 216 hours you’re comparing apples with oranges ECMWF holds the block.

Jet over the top on both charts

[Harveyslugger]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

Indeed it would, but it's snow I'm after. Might need to book a trip to Greece for that.

That's true it's actually ridiculous that they can get snow and we can't

[MJB]

As per the latest from Exeter, happy with that , cold and dry, the two F's showing their hand 

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Block gained some latitude 168 > 192hrs, it would definitely be cold on surface.

 

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

The high sunk north.

No it didn't. It sunk south compared to the 00Z

[booferking]

Just now, Scott Ingham said:

It’s the following week mate b4 we see retrogression. You can’t deny the met have called a uk high to retrogress towards the 15th. Just a matter of timing

No they haven't they say Currently the chance of widespread severe cold is still deemed low this mean retrogression to Greenland is low and uk high through January looks favourite for colder average weather as they state.

[Purga]

Could've been worse

Edited December 31, 2023 by Purga

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, Harveyslugger said:

That's true it's actually ridiculous that they can get snow and we can't

It's the story of the last 20 years.

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

At 216 hours you’re comparing apples with oranges ECMWF holds the block.

But both pieces of fruit wont drop from the tree.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Looks primed to sink into the Iberian high which looks very strong, preventing easterlies from developing. Anything particularly wintry in the next 10-12 days is becoming increasingly unlikely. Whether we can shift from this to easterlies in the subsequent 7 days or so is very uncertain.

I thought Iberia was Spain and Portugal?

 

BFTP

[January Snowstorm]

Maybe we'll get a good day 10 chart. We've been getting them for the last 2 months...

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I thought Iberia was Spain and Portugal?

 

BFTP

That general high which spans from the Azores to Portugal.

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Maybe we'll get a good day 10 chart. We've been getting them for the last 2 months...

Unlikely now.

[raul_sbd]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Looks primed to sink into the Iberian high which looks very strong, preventing easterlies from developing. Anything particularly wintry in the next 10-12 days is becoming increasingly unlikely. Whether we can shift from this to easterlies in the subsequent 7 days or so is very uncertain.

Snow in Barcelona @Kasim Awan?