Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Ali1977]

GFS showing it hadn’t a clue - difference at day 10 is vast from the 18z - in a good way 

[Mcconnor8]

10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GFS showing it hadn’t a clue - difference at day 10 is vast from the 18z - in a good way 

Isn't that always the case past day 5 on the GFS lol?

[Ali1977]

A snapshot of the ENS at T162 , clear support for the UKMO ️

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

A snapshot of the ENS at T162 , clear support for the UKMO ️

Mean is inching towards ukmo.

Note the lower heights over Europe too, key to stop the high sinking, not sure why the op is constantly near the top of the pack. That's 5-6 runs in a row now.

[Harveyslugger]

I know most people here wanna hear about snow but this has recently cropped up out of nowhere.this is concerning.80-90 mph gusts on arome and arpege.ukv and icon having none of it.

[IDO]

43 minutes ago, Harveyslugger said:

I know most people here wanna hear about snow but this has recently cropped up out of nowhere.this is concerning.80-90 mph gusts on arome and arpege.ukv and icon having none of it.

The southern half is in for a very windy period, according to the GFS as well:

The above are gusts. The mean suggests the channel is in for the worst. But I am surprised there are no weather warnings, so I assume there is uncertainty. The UK mean highlights the expectation that it will run through the channel:

[Battleground Snow]

ECM 120,

lows will merge and head north,  already decent heights approaching Iceland 

This could be a cracking run

Edited January 1 by Battleground Snow

[Harveyslugger]

5 minutes ago, IDO said:

The southern half is in for a very windy period, according to the GFS as well:

The above are gusts. The mean suggests the channel is in for the worst. But I am surprised there are no weather warnings, so I assume there is uncertainty. The UK mean highlights the expectation that it will run through the channel:

The latest ukv has trended the storm further north now.could it be following the arome and arpege now

[Lukesluckybunch]

Ukmo..you are a thing of beauty!

[Cloud 10]

ECM 144.

[IDO]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Ukmo..you are a thing of beauty!

The 18z MoGREPS pressure for London suggests most of the ensembles going for higher pressure in London than the mean:

The control and a couple of members pulled the mean down. That would imply majority support for the HP core to be further south. Is the op leading the members, or is it wrong?

[Daniel*]

This saga is really not over with yet… mainland Europe is bitterly cold and high is not sinking.

[IDO]

The four main models at D7:

All are in the same ballpark for synoptic, but clearly, UKMO is preferred, followed by EC, GEM and GFS.

[Scott Ingham]

Surprise surprise the ecm run is turning into a belter………

[Lukesluckybunch]

Surely that can only go one way at day 10 ECM a nice cold run..especially for the South!

[TillyS]

11 hours ago, LRD said:

I totally agree that any GFS run shouldn't be discounted but if the boot was on the other foot and the Op was one of the coldest members of the ensemble suite you'd probably be dismissing it on that basis

You can't have it both ways

And before you accuse me of hope-casting or whatever, I don't have any skin in the game. If it happens, it happens. If it doesn't, it doesn't. No skin off my nose either way. But for what it's worth I reckon it'll be cold and frosty next week and then there is potential for more dramatic cold weather by the weekend of the 13th/14th

No not at all, except that we do well to remember this isn’t like for like, nor a level playing field.

The UK is tilted mild for its latitude for a variety of meteorological and oceanic reasons and generally cold setups, and therefore operationals, are harder to come to pass than milder ones.

If you assume that 9 times out of 10 the mild wins you’re not going to go far wrong. Even if that is a slight exaggeration it’s not 50:50 cold-mild. 

Meanwhile, the GFS still won’t join the party, although the 0z isn’t as bad as the 18z was. The UKMO shows the coldest set up with the high furthest north (and therefore cold NE winds for the south), and the ECM has gone into a half-way house with the high largely resident over the UK.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, TillyS said:

No not at all, except that we do well to remember this isn’t like for like, nor a level playing field.

The UK is tilted mild for its latitude for a variety of meteorological and oceanic reasons and generally cold setups, and therefore operationals, are harder to come to pass than milder ones.

If you assume that 9 times out of 10 the mild wins you’re not going to go far wrong. Even if that is a slight exaggeration it’s not 50:50 cold-mild. 

Meanwhile, the GFS still won’t join the party, although the 0z isn’t as bad as the 18z was. The UKMO shows the coldest set up with the high furthest north (and therefore cold NE winds for the south), and the ECM has gone into a half-way house with the high largely resident over the UK.

The gfs op once again was at the top end of the ensembles..but the mean isn't as good as it was couple days ago..let's hope we follow ECM route with the high mainly over or just to the north of the uk!

[Catacol]

Happy New Year everyone. Top 2 models going for the higher latitude option this morning - a good way to start the year. Not much more to be said right now. The scene is set, we know which drivers are in play for this upcoming phase and we wait for the models to move towards consensus. 

Longer term relative AAM has started to reverse but the GWO orbit is high and overall GLAAM is very high. We therefore have a cushion to work with from around mid month, but chances of longer term cold I think do hinge on the extent to which the block can get onto the northern side of the jet. The chance is there, the MetO text alludes to it - and EC and UKMO this morning look onboard with that idea. Going to be a close run thing and we dont have a split SSW to fall back on.

[TillyS]

ECM at T240 isn’t particularly enthralling to be honest. High meandering but generally sinking with mild north-westerlies up the western flank and the coldest 850 hPa temps heading into southern Europe.

 

I don’t think it’s very wise to diss the GFS at the moment merely because it doesn’t show what we want it to. It may be wrong but it’s one of the big three and it makes me uncomfortable that it’s not on board. It’s a particular concern that the ensembles aren’t massively supportive for the UKMO evolution.

Mind you, it’s equally risky to bet against our own UKMO model. The ECM, which had a bitterly severe cold easterly set up 48 hours ago, has backed away from that which also makes me nervous about this.

Interesting times for sure. But I’ll stick my neck out and predict the GFS is correct. The high potters around before sinking into Europe and we’re left in an essentially mild flow.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Really hope that ECM was not an outlier..otherwise it could be last throw of the dice..we still have time on our hands though,them lows could be modelled differently..it's still 4/5 days away!

[Catacol]

On a gloomier note - how much cold air is there these days in mid winter? 

Not much.  

[nick sussex]

Happy New Year to everyone . 

And it’s a Happy New Year from the UKMO which has the best day 7 chart . Much sharper upstream with more energy heading se.

The ECM delivers the coldest initial conditions , interestingly it runs another shortwave sw , helps to pull the high a bit further north day 6 into 7 which then pulls a further pool of cold air west . 

The rest are a bit underwhelming earlier although the GEM looks okay at day 10.

A Euro combo would of course be nice ! 

Ordinarily the best models for European blocking are the ECM/UKMO so let’s hope that remains the case .

 

[KTtom]

High pressure dominance seems to be the way foreward through Jan. Cold and frosty hopefully and not cold and dreery. I think it shown what a low bar has been set over the last few years that a UK high is seen as a possitive for mid winter where in years gone by it would be seen as a waste of valuable winter time. I wonder if the snow loving Greeks view a UK high the way we see a Greenland high...always delivers..

[Lukesluckybunch]

Great ECM mean ! It dips to around -6..the op in the coldest end,but there's a small cluster that go with it!

Edited January 1 by Lukesluckybunch

[Mike Poole]

Some consistency from the UKMO after yesterday’s 12z - I had pretty much called the collapse to the UK high yesterday, and it is still the most likely interim solution, but UKMO is better than that in terms of higher latitude.  

ECM and GEM are OK, provided some further move north would happen after day 10.  GFS looks poor, but this is not a scenario it is known to be good at.  First op runs of the new year, on balance looking positive.