Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[northwestsnow]

 

This is what I expected after seeing UKMO 168 this morning..

lovely icon 

We are in the game

[sheikhy]

-10 850s on icon by the end of this week!!!we can dream my peeps!!!!!!

[northwestsnow]

Just now, sheikhy said:

-10 850s on icon by the end of this week!!!we can dream my peeps!!!!!!

We are still outside the reliable timeframe ..

Looks a very high wire act so caution is defo still advised.. 

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, sheikhy said:

-10 850s on icon by the end of this week!!!we can dream my peeps!!!!!!

Imagine the ukmo upgrades its 168 chart later

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Imagine the ukmo upgrades its 168 chart later

I'm scared to watch it come out..!!

[sheikhy]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Imagine the ukmo upgrades its 168 chart later

Oh man stop it my IBS is startin to play up again as im getting nervous after that run from the icon!!im just farting away right now lol and on the edge!!!!need gfs to improve asap!!!!!stilll trying to hold it down from my end wary of being let down again but we are still in it somehow!!!!gfs running......

[northwestsnow]

If UKMO has called it then that would be the most incredible feat for the model.

It looks so complex 120 - 144 ifcthe model was correct last night then it has trumped the rest...

 

[Derecho]

The models have definitely turned for the better today, I had the feeling yesterday that the GFS was being too progressive.

It now looks like we will at the least get a UK high with the potential for retrogression north rather then a quick sink south.

A push of the high further north would be nice for some bonus cold. What I'm really looking out for is the retrogression to Greenland and a big punch through the polar vortex.

One step at a time though, we are still in the game.

I think the MJO could be playing its hand here, the second week of January has been flagged by several of us after looking at the MJO composites.

Edited January 1 by Derecho

[northwestsnow]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Oh man stop it my IBS is startin to play up again as im getting nervous after that run from the icon!!im just farting away right now lol and on the edge!!!!need gfs to improve asap!!!!!stilll trying to hold it down from my end wary of being let down again but we are still in it somehow!!!!gfs running......

I'm currently sat behind the sofa missus thinks I'm crazy  

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm currently sat behind the sofa missus thinks I'm crazy  

You’re looking at the internet behind your sofa ?

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

You’re looking at the internet behind your sofa ?

Phone lol

[nick sussex]

The ICON looked very messy early on but saw the light eventually !

The jet cut back is always a difficulty for the models which is crucial when you’re chasing cold pools from the east and ne,

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, nick sussex said:

The ICON looked very messy early on but saw the light eventually !

The jet cut back is always a difficulty for the models which is crucial when you’re chasing cold pools from the east and ne,

It did look messy nick..I thought it wouldn't make it..that shortwave struggled too clear past iceland!

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

It did look messy nick..I thought it wouldn't make it..that shortwave struggled too clear past iceland!

Yes I thought it was going wrong at 120 but it turned it around..

All I'm bothered about is UKMO because GFS is junk anyway..

[Cuban Zebra]

We’re all adults here, I’ve had years of hoping and heartbreak. Can’t do it again so am merely planning on middle of the road chilly rain as the form horse! But could this be different, shall I take the first step!

 

[Big Gally]

Another good update from the met office.

They must be seeing the train arriving at the station come the 7th/ 8th. All aboard…

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Big Gally said:

Another good update from the met office.

They must be seeing the train arriving at the station come the 7th/ 8th. All aboard…

I've just read the extended it looks very good to me too..

The script is written ..

UKMO will back down and the phone will be launched out the window 

[Dignity]

No models to show, just a feeling in the water.

Start a new role on the 8th and lumped in with night shifts the first week.

Will I be crunching through thick frost or snow on the way to work going by the output today

[sheikhy]

Why couldnt the ukmo come out before gfs man!!!so long lol!!!anyway gfs out to 72 hours and looks ever so slightly further west with the low in the atlantic?!!

[Jeremy Shockey]

ICON 12z ..........id snap your hand off for this 1 week today.

[northwestsnow]

If I lived in the SE,esp with some altitude I'd be getting excited now..

Esp ref UKMO holding firm ..

[Chasbrown]

3 minutes ago, Dignity said:

No models to show, just a feeling in the water.

Start a new role on the 8th and lumped in with night shifts the first week.

Will I be crunching through thick frost or snow on the way to work going by the output today

Good luck with the new job.

[minus10]

19 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Oh man stop it my IBS is startin to play up again as im getting nervous after that run from the icon!!im just farting away right now lol and on the edge!!!!need gfs to improve asap!!!!!stilll trying to hold it down from my end wary of being let down again but we are still in it somehow!!!!gfs running......

Too much info....

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

You’re looking at the internet behind your sofa ?

Hilarious …. 

 

icon is a lovely treat

 

BFTP

Edited January 1 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Sparky68]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

If I lived in the SE,esp with some altitude I'd be getting excited now..

Esp ref UKMO holding firm ..

Would need to be something special to hit me!