Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[bryan629]

Cracking pub run... since modelling watching from 2011 i dont think i have ever seen a black hole as significsnt as this before 

 

[Bricriu]

The high looks to be going a bit too close to Canada for my liking. A west based NAO?

Edited January 1 by Bricriu

[Allseasons-Si]

EPS mean out to 306,...OMG

500mb/MSLP and 850's, i mean,...come on you can't get much better than this

i class this as stonking,ripping,booming and dam right bonkers

Edited January 1 by Allseasons-Si
typo

[Ice Day]

So the mean at 192 vs the 12z at the same time shows significant improvement

 

It's really been a quite remarkable day for the small niche of society that enjoys this sort of thing (i.e., us lot!)

 

[geordiekev]

Well the energy companies will be rubbing their hands at that run. Frigid throughout, rarely getting above 4/5C daytime maxima

[cold snap]

Found that GFS run quite amusing .

GFS  was like listening to people on Net weather and by 384 it was like there you go I've put the high further north for you with cheeky smile .

Your so smug GFS. It's to far North now 

[northwestsnow]

Fingers crossed the 00 runs carry on the theme.

Brill runs tonight just would like to get alignment at 120 in the morning,if possible  

[Singularity]

5 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

So are we seeing a SSW Event or not?

 

BFTP

A minor one most likely, which is where the 60N mean zonal wind at 10 hPa reduces greatly & quickly to low values but doesn’t reverse.

There can still be -NAM to propagate down but it’s less clear cut, with more chance of wave breaks not being in the right place to drive that process, compared to a major SSW.

The tropospheric pattern is also important & we have interest there on this occasion - no rampant +AO to resist cooperation.

[Day 10]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:

EPS mean out to 306,...OMG

500mb/MSLP and 850's, i mean,...come on you can't get better than this

i class this a stonking,ripping,booming and dam right bonkers

Perhaps Blighty's New Year's resolution is that all January's from now on shall always include ice, frost & blizzards from the north

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Fingers crossed the 00 runs carry on the theme.

Brill runs tonight just would like to get alignment at 120 in the morning,if possible  

Very nice jma, it wouldn't suprise me if the models find just a little bit more amplification, but we are closing in on the reliable period now

[Phil Blake]

18 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

The consistency around the 15th of this month for true Greenland Heights is now something to behold and it is THIS period that can deliver significant and substantial cold and snow! Is this the 5th time I’ve mentioned this today?

TBF you've mentioned the 15th numerous times a day for about a week now. Charts are looking great today for an extended period of below average temps 

[geordiekev]

22 hours ago, geordiekev said:

New Year, New Resolutions. Yes I'm talking to you @GFS @ICON @GEM ...

Where there's High Pressure there's  hope gang. To health, happiness & HP

Well Done GFS

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, Singularity said:

A minor one most likely, which is where the 60N mean zonal wind at 10 hPa reduces greatly & quickly to low values but doesn’t reverse.

There can still be -NAM to propagate down but it’s less clear cut, with more chance of wave breaks not being in the right place to drive that process, compared to a major SSW.

The tropospheric pattern is also important & we have interest there on this occasion - no rampant +AO to resist cooperation.

I think also relevant here is the earlier Canadian warming, which has done some of the job already in terms of weakening the westerly winds in the lower to mid stratosphere.  

[The Enforcer]

Have to be wary of the evolution shown by GEFS 18z P10:

It would be good to see that knocked out of the park in the forthcoming runs.

[Kasim Awan]

This chart here would produce around 5-15mm of precipitation for the Pennines in around a 24 hour window. The snow line on the GFS is around 250-350m though. 

[Cymro]

Bois bach!

 

If ever there were an anomaly chart to quash the "British Isles can't be cold at the same time as the US" argument, this is it! 

 

 

[Bricriu]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

This chart here would produce around 5-15mm of precipitation for the Pennines in around a 24 hour window. The snow line on the GFS is around 250-350m though. 

Are you not concerned about the High drifting a bit too close to Canada  on the GFS op?

[Catacol]

26 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

So are we seeing a SSW Event or not?

 

BFTP

No - it will be a minor warming now...but it is looking as though the impact of that minor warming is leaving the strat vulnerable to the current momentum spike and high GWO orbit meaning a Greenland High can be properly established via a trop led split. We will need to see just how big the wave break will be in the context of a weakened vortex but someone earlier mentioned Dec 2010 style synoptics and I am wondering whether we might head roughly in that direction if things click. Not the pattern I had expected going into this month as I thought cold would more likely come from the east over time, but instead we may get @Scott Ingham's north to north easterly as a more likely candidate. I wonder whether that kind of extreme amplification is what the MetO have been seeing in their crystal ball as the low probability severe cold option all along. They have certainly stuck to their guns despite the failed SSW. I had assumed it was SSW linked.

Matters not. We live and learn. Someone will do an analysis of why the SSW bombed but right now we are learning plenty about the potential that lies within high amplitude pacific impacts and the mechanics of GSDM wind flows. The SSW has failed, but the weakened vortex certainly looks as though it will help magnify that pacific potential as we move forward.

The Wave Break is coming....

 

Edited January 1 by Catacol

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

Are you not concerned about the High drifting a bit too close to Canada  on the GFS op?

The main concern still is and probably still will be for a while the high sinking into the Azores.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

The main concern still is and probably still will be for a while the high sinking into the Azores.

When?

 

BFTP

[The Enforcer]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

When?

Take a look at GEFS 18z P10.

[Bricriu]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

The main concern still is and probably still will be for a while the high sinking into the Azores.

It would be a real kick in the teeth if that concern is allayed only for the high to drift too far north west in the end.

[Cymro]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

The main concern still is and probably still will be for a while the high sinking into the Azores.

This clip comes to mind here

 

The German Coastguard!

What are you sinking about?

https://youtu.be/x9wJxZc2KF8?feature=shared

[Catacol]

31 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:

EPS mean out to 306,...OMG

500mb/MSLP and 850's, i mean,...come on you can't get much better than this

i class this as stonking,ripping,booming and dam right bonkers

Best EPS in a long time - since 2018? And trending in the right direction rather than the wrong one. 

Gulp...

  

[Johnp]

18 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Have to be wary of the evolution shown by GEFS 18z P10:

It would be good to see that knocked out of the park in the forthcoming runs.

turns out ok