Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Lukesluckybunch]

The 2m temps for the next couple of weeks look really quite low..probably averaging 4c

[Ladyofthestorm]

My suggestion is look towards the teleconnections for clues. That negative NAO is critical for where our best chances of colder weather is coming from. That Greenie High is the source of colder weather, not a technical SSW, ( that might happen later),  It's been forecast to happen all winter! First on the longer ranges and now quite dramatically onto the GFS, ECM etc, as always the devils in the details for snow casting and it's pointless and fruitless exercise. 

The settling down of the weather in January in my mind is a blessing in disguise, the trend is cooling which is also needed. The magic bullet snowy  easterly , unlikely to bring snow.  The major drivers are the high pressures  which are mobile and dynamic this winter , big and high but moving around alot so not blocking anywhere for long.  This situation won't last for much longer. Last night that was a huge Greenie high forecast , even moderated over time and model run, still high and big. 

 

[SnowBorder]

Jam tomorrow.

At least the models are showing drier conditions, and a few frosts will help firm up the sodden ground. 

[Kasim Awan]

17 minutes ago, That ECM said:

If you can not see why you cause confusion then that’s a shame. I was trying to show that used the similar words to describe gfs and ecm. Its shame because some of your commentary will be missed due to people scrolling past.

ill leave this here and will not comment on what you have written moving forward.

You are free to comment on what I have written my friend. I merely corrected you based on my opinion. You are free to do the same.

[Troubleatmill]

12 minutes ago, SnowBorder said:

Jam tomorrow.

At least the models are showing drier conditions, and a few frosts will help firm up the sodden ground. 

If we can get some low DPs and wet bulb temps, it will help 'suck' the water from the ground too. Most places really need it, fields around these parts have been waterlogged since last Sept

[Lukesluckybunch]

10 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

 

ECM mean also shows the high sinking after 168..then heights build out west towards 240

[northwestsnow]

Excellent EC mean..

There is so much going on right now!

[That ECM]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Excellent EC mean..

There is so much going on right now!

I’m only at T42 can you send the link you are using please?

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

I’m only at T42 can you send the link you are using please?

Meteociel just click ECMWF and Mean it's already uploaded.. 

[John88B]

As the rain pours down here yet again the important thing the models are showing is a general dry out for areas that have suffered constant deluges.

There's no point getting too hung up over individual runs. I believe the trend is our friend and a cool down is definitely on the way. Where we go from there I'll leave for those far more knowledgeable than me.

To my mind January still looking promising for those of a cold persuasion so plenty to be positive about still

[Mike Poole]

From the ECM clusters point of view, there is just one between T120-T168 - which is fair enough because there was very little between the three yesterday afternoon:

High centred between Iceland and Scotland, closer to Iceland.

T192-T240:

The start of the retrogression is still there, most notable on cluster 3.  Maybe this evolution is slightly slower on these this morning, with the highest heights slower to vacate the vicinity of the UK.  

T264+:

There seems much more uncertainty here this morning, and also just at a glance, there seems to be less dark red across the suite.  Less easy to discern the way forward from these compared to the same timeframe yesterday.

Edited January 2 by Mike Poole

[northwestsnow]

UKMO has gone from hero to zero in 24 hours

NWP supporters are such a fickle bunch

All things considered decent outputs,the form horse is a high centred NW Scotland and hope for some retrogression..

Edited January 2 by northwestsnow

[Catacol]

Hmmmm - now what's going on here? 

Lordy lordy.

[January Snowstorm]

1 minute ago, Catacol said:

Hmmmm - now what's going on here? 

Lordy lordy.

Another Day 10 from ecm. Disguises what has evaporated in the reliable timeframe!

[Chesil View]

2 minutes ago, DCee said:

Well that was short lived, return to average and cooler conditions at times with a UK sinking high.

But most importantly much dryer.

Come on guys, what did you really expect chasing 10 and 14 day charts?

Lessons....

Or of course it could simply be that the journey to wintry nirvana is a more steady and measured one.

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, DCee said:

Well that was short lived, return to average and cooler conditions at times with a UK sinking high.

But most importantly much dryer.

Come on guys, what did you really expect chasing 10 and 14 day charts?

Lessons....

What are you looking at? Not the chart by the looks of it

[Quantock]

4 minutes ago, DCee said:

Well that was short lived, return to average and cooler conditions at times with a UK sinking high.

But most importantly much dryer.

Come on guys, what did you really expect chasing 10 and 14 day charts?

Lessons....

Except the UK sinking high hasn’t verified yet.....

Lessons.

[Lukesluckybunch]

8 minutes ago, DCee said:

Well that was short lived, return to average and cooler conditions at times with a UK sinking high.

But most importantly much dryer.

Come on guys, what did you really expect chasing 10 and 14 day charts?

Lessons....

If we can get that low to sharpen up in the Atlantic at days 5/6 we could be looking at a better easterly and the ridge pushing even further north..at the moment it's too bulgy it doesn't really give the ridge much of a chance

[ScottSnow]

I don’t get the despondency on here this morning from some members. The theme is still the same as yesterday.

[Drifter]

13 minutes ago, Quantock said:

Except the UK sinking high hasn’t verified yet.....

Lessons.

Try the ignore list. Only a shame it doesn’t block from showing up in quoted messages too. 

[bluearmy]

The ens means didn’t increase the likelihood of the ridge getting towards Iceland as they counted down from day 15. They trended to a flatter ridge and the mean upper ridge trended to a specific upper high around n Scotland. If you ignore the noise of the ops and simply watch the envelope get smaller  then what we see for this weekend and into next week is not a surprise 

the second wave via retrogression of our high and a new pump off the esb and undercutting Atlantic trough is currently accelerating in the ens with the ridge into Greenland as we head towards mid month. in addition, the push towards nw europe from the Asian tpv is also gaining momentum. we should be more confident of Scott’s mid month wintry picture delivering snowfall than next weeks ridge which brings seasonal conditions. 

either way, it’s cold throughout and if it’s cold then surprises can spring up. 

this is a good link to follow the evolution of the upper pattern on the eps mean

ECMWF | Charts

CHARTS.ECMWF.INT

 

[Chesil View]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The ens means didn’t increase the likelihood of the ridge getting towards Iceland as they counted down from day 15. They trended to a flatter ridge and the mean upper ridge trended to a specific upper high around n Scotland. If you ignore the noise of the ops and simply watch the envelope get smaller  then what we see for this weekend and into next week is not a surprise 

the second wave via retrogression of our high and a new pump off the esb and undercutting Atlantic trough is currently accelerating in the ens with the ridge into Greenland as we head towards mid month. in addition, the push towards nw europe from the Asian tpv is also gaining momentum. we should be more confident of Scott’s mid month wintry picture delivering snowfall than next weeks ridge which brings seasonal conditions. 

either way, it’s cold throughout and if it’s cold then surprises can spring up. 

this is a good link to follow the evolution of the upper pattern on the eps mean

ECMWF | Charts

CHARTS.ECMWF.INT

 

Thanks Blue. 

A measured and well explained post and pleasant antidote to the knee-jerk nonsense that sometimes takes hold in here.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

A poor start to the day with the ECM particularly disappointing after last nights op run .

As soon as any east or ne flow is possible we get this drama ! 

Also highlights the importance of having the UKMO onside which has historically been the model that ends up the deciding judge !

If and this is a big if there’s no further southwards adjustment one small bit of interest . Both the Euros bring a shortwave sw around the high which cuts back towards the se .

Hard to say what this will produce at this point until there’s more certainty over the 850 values .

Short term downgrades Nick but EPS fairly solid again on a full on retrogression with a deep Arctic sourced Northerly.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

A definite trend for the high to sink a tad, but lets hope the initial lift can get the high pressure further north than this mornings model's predict, 

The 0z are very often flat for which i have know explanation for but regardless of this all models have limited the northern limit of the initial high pressure lift off this morning runs.

Last night's runs were fun, and with some credence behind them too so i dont think it's a done deal yet but the envelope is closing. 

[northwestsnow]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The ens means didn’t increase the likelihood of the ridge getting towards Iceland as they counted down from day 15. They trended to a flatter ridge and the mean upper ridge trended to a specific upper high around n Scotland. If you ignore the noise of the ops and simply watch the envelope get smaller  then what we see for this weekend and into next week is not a surprise 

the second wave via retrogression of our high and a new pump off the esb and undercutting Atlantic trough is currently accelerating in the ens with the ridge into Greenland as we head towards mid month. in addition, the push towards nw europe from the Asian tpv is also gaining momentum. we should be more confident of Scott’s mid month wintry picture delivering snowfall than next weeks ridge which brings seasonal conditions. 

either way, it’s cold throughout and if it’s cold then surprises can spring up. 

this is a good link to follow the evolution of the upper pattern on the eps mean

ECMWF | Charts

CHARTS.ECMWF.INT

 

Nice one Nick.

Anticyclone centred N Scotland followed hopefully by retrogression..

I standby my prev comments this remains our best chance of January  wintry weather for a good while...

Edited January 2 by northwestsnow