Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[LRD]

Don't usually do the single frame in FI-type posts

But, blimey...

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Now this is what you call a high risk of meaningful snow for SE England (and NE, E Anglia & E scotland for that matter) - this is a classic London & SE transport network rasberry rippler.

Edited January 3 by feb1991blizzard

[ICE COLD]

-12 850s in from the east

[Met4Cast]

Met office keeping the dream alive despite a very late update!

What an evening. Lets hope the ECM continues with the theme.

[TSNWK]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Just the deep cold pool missing then

I did think that, but thought I was missing something else

[Ventnor Viking]

12 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

atliantic high touching Pacific high~?

I noticed the Pacific high edging into the arctic. If that links up then that will be some block and will take some shifting. 

[Man With Beard]

Please, do not even think about calling this chart marginal!

 

(but feel free to call it FI )

Edited January 3 by Man With Beard

[TSNWK]

Just now, Ventnor Viking said:

I noticed the Pacific high edging into the arctic. If that links up then that will be some block and will take some shifting. 

going to fall short this run - that ok we are never happy unless a run upgrades, so 18Z take note.

[Daniel*]

Good upgrades this afternoon with initial easterly we are seeing more a cut off high to north this is likely linked to better capture of MJO forcing and it helps with a weakening zonal wind. So we are seeing much better CAA, which entertains greater snow shower risk in E/SE possibly even streamer potential for some lucky folks. I posted verification stats and it seemed to fall on deaf ears, there has been a major slump in model performance at day 5. I’m not sure what’s more fickle the model or the model watcher.

[swfc]

Cometh hour cometh the man. Scott and his 15th Not a bad day on the models esp gfs 12z

[Eagle Eye]

Unlikely to happen that strong but it's eye candy still. 

[Catacol]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

I did think that, but thought I was missing something else

Nah - just a bit of fun. No widespread blanket this time but I wouldn't rule out a bit of upgrading from that chart. There is a definite kink over central France that might develop a few showers within the flow.

[weathercold]

I can’t keep up with this thread this afternoon so many posts so quickly, what a great forum, best around.

I mentioned yesterday we were on the cusp of something potentially historic (these types of charts for cold fans are so rare). Just take this in, take a step back and just enjoy these projections. I’ll tell you this - for any newbies - it doesn’t get much better. IF these land we are on the cusp of something seriously special.

Those dice are rolling ….

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

-12 850s in from the east

Beast from the North East  

[TSNWK]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

Please, do not even think about calling this chart marginal!

 

-10 uppers this time of year from east - about -2 highs ( I use -8 as base for ice days in January ) so powder if anything falls.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Ukmo decent as well at 168..keeps the high to the north and the cold uppers remain!

[Cold Winter Night]

The biggest issue with GFS might be copyright issues ... with 1962/1963

Edited January 3 by Cold Winter Night

[Gowon]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

Please, do not even think about calling this chart marginal!

 

And don't anyone tell their friends and relatives.

[Metwatch]

That is very similar to early January 2010 in my eyes. Greenland heights, trough from Iberia to the Med bringing in deep cold, sub -10C 850s, that would be snow conducive to pretty much all. Lake effect machine over North Sea turned on leading to snow showers, and probably disturbances in the flow giving more general falls of snow.

And now we've also got next week which is also trending to a more amplified high, so we see around 2-3 days of easterlies also with a decently cold airmass so wintry showers for those in the east / south east.

I would make a bet of saying we could see a CET within 0.5-1.0C of January's 2010 very chilly value of 1.5C!

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

going to fall short this run - that ok we are never happy unless a run upgrades, so 18Z take note.

say that it might try again in super FI to link up Atlantic / Pacfic - repeating pattern?

[Rob 79812010]

Question for long time model watchers. When the charts consistently showing colder temps out in F1 which then come into the medium term, is it still feasible it can all go belly up??

[January Snowstorm]

Ukmo keeps very cold uppers over Ireland. I imagine it's picking up snowfall on Monday and Tuesday and it freezing over afterwards. Major upgrades this afternoon, 2010 is imminent

[Rob 79812010]

11 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

That is very similar to early January 2010 in my eyes. Greenland heights, trough from Iberia to the Med bringing in deep cold, sub -10C 850s, that would be snow conducive to pretty much all. Lake effect machine over North Sea turned on leading to snow showers, and probably disturbances in the flow giving more general falls of snow.

And now we've also got next week which is also trending to a more amplified high, so we see around 2-3 days of easterlies also with a decently cold airmass so wintry showers for those in the east / south east.

I would make a bet of saying we could see a CET within 0.5-1.0C of January's 2010 very chilly value of 1.5C!

I'd be happy enough at this stage with Jan 21 cet or below

[northwestsnow]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Ukmo keeps very cold uppers over Ireland. I imagine it's picking up snowfall on Monday and Tuesday and it freezing over afterwards. Major upgrades this afternoon, 2010 is imminent

UKMO is lovely  

I suspect there will be surprises and Eastern parts of Ireland will do well..

[Rob 79812010]

13 minutes ago, Gowon said:

And don't anyone tell their friends and relatives.

 Can't help it!!!