Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

35 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM clusters, just one until T168, then we get 5 clusters T192-T240:

That there are 5 might suggest more uncertainty, but they are all variations on the same basic pattern.  Clusters 1 and 5 fastest with the cold inside 10 days, the op is in cluster 1.  Cluster 3 is the slowest, clusters 2 and 4 in between. You could perhaps make the case that cluster 1 is edging towards a west-based set-up.

I'd say cluster five is quite similar to the opp as in we do seem the struggle at first to rid the mid lat heights despite it moving towards Greenland there seems a lag of heights over the UK but it turns out great.

We're in a very very good position, early Jan, warnings above, background signals affirmative, Greenland high, undercutting, siberian/Scandinavia vortex!

Could be one to remember this year or am i still shell shocked from the 1947 channel five program the other night! 

[northwestsnow]

EC 46 week 2 ..

You literally couldn't paint a more beautiful picture..

[cold snap]

Hot of the press . Thoughts ?

[Cold Winter Night]

I've added the boundary line between the end of the GFS/GEFS and EPS ensembles, and what follows on EC46.

Over the next few days, watch for an increasing number of members in deepest FI that go from Greenland heights towards the development of a Scandi High.

[geordiekev]

27 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Week  beginning15th 

 

Think the EC46 called this blocking spell a while back & to be fair GFS had a mean way back on 22nd Dec, at T384, almost identical to the det 12 days later (yesterday).

Quite astounding & a reminder GFS can be useful for trends at the far reaches, just it normally drops them soon after

Edited January 4 by geordiekev

[Weather-history]

16 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Unfortunately in this set up the NW will be bone dry and have a Fohn effect….I’m sorry pal

 

BFTP

Depends what comes down in the flow?

Start of January 2010

 

[swfc]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

EC 46 week 2 ..

You literally couldn't paint a more beautiful picture..

Its in fi. You wete sticking with ukmo a few days at 144hrs.gfs was rubbish and ec was average on winter stats +??? 

[LRD]

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

A lot or most charts are available on here and metiociel etc. Im not sure posting 8 week charts and ec 46 helps much when the ops, means and control charts hsve large variants. Imo 144 hours possibly in this set up is enough although the strat at 10pha has been accurate within its parameters. 

Eh? The ops, means and controls don't have large variants. All of them have been showing a basic broad pattern of a cool/cold UK high then retrogression to our NW for days now. The detail changes as you'd expect but the big picture hasn't. And, besides, if the output was being inconsistent then looking for guidance in other suites is surely valid?

As it is the EC46 has been rock solid for days on what it is showing this evening. It's consistency has been remarkable. Might be consistently wrong but it's a model and this is the model output thread

[northwestsnow]

Just now, swfc said:

Its in fi. You wete sticking with ukmo a few days at 144hrs.gfs was rubbish and ec was average on winter stats +??? 

I'm posting a chart I didn't say bet your life on it

[Lukesluckybunch]

ECM control mean

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

One thing is showing it and another actually getting it...I'll be very surprised if EC has that correct (maybe a watered down version) which doesn't effect the UK at times. I'm quite happy to eat a huge slice of humble pie otherwise.

Have to say also the D10 on the latest EC run looks quite underwhelming with the main cold to the north of the UK and basically a dry run for the majority or are we expecting the cold to evolve thereafter? 

I just told Mum to expect a lot of snow. . . And you know what that means! 

[Purga]

A couple of charts to warm the coldies' cockles - or freeze them

 

[swfc]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm posting a chart I didn't say bet your life on it

Edited January 4 by swfc

[jacke]

God to see you on here this evening Matt.

Goodness what do a few of you want on here?  You must spend the bulk of your time trawling for the worst chart and comment, not because you think it’s plausible but just to ring your doom bell. Believe me I have been following the weather much longer than some of you have been born!  Agreed his forum is here for everyone to have a say. But ask yourself do I honestly believe what I am writing?  For what it’s worth for me the overwhelming evidence is for a slowish burn to colder weather. The high is still sorting itself out so no real dramas in the next week but very different to the last weeks. Sorry but will go back to my burrow and keep quiet.

[geordiekev]

18 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Yep. There are some extremely half empty comments in here this evening. This is EC 240

Strong block, southerly displaced jet, shattered vortex with the main remnants over Asia, flow over the U.K.  north of east following around a week of steadily falling temperatures. As an overall pattern what more do folk wish to see?

Could be a good time to bring back the 72h thread, for those afraid to dream

[ScottSnow]

Just now, Weather-history said:

Depends what comes down in the flow?

Start of January 2010

 

The charts at the moment certainly give a feeling of Dec 09/Jan 10.

That was a fantastic winter in northern areas. I believe Scotland had its coldest winter on record with some areas having snow on the ground from mid December until early March. 

I skied in the Pennines on Christmas Eve and Boxing Day and the English ski tows were open until March.

I would love to see a similar spell of cold weather.

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

I've added the boundary line between the end of the GFS/GEFS and EPS ensembles, and what follows on EC46.

Over the next few days, watch for an increasing number of members in deepest FI that go from Greenland heights towards the development of a Scandi High.

That seems a good call, with the pressure anomalies showing @Tamara ‘s shuffling high as pointed out earlier - I will be very interested to see what route the models suggest the evolution to a Scandi high might take.  

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

8 minutes ago, cold snap said:

Hot of the press . Thoughts ?

The green contours are so amplified….incredible.  JH would say  a very ‘stable’ outlook.

 

BFFP

[jacke]

Matt read Good!

[Froze were the Days]

34 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Week  beginning15th 

 

That's 8th-15th...following weeks blocking anomalies as posted are far weaker, so difficult what to make of those (weak high pressure/weak low pressure)?

[swfc]

7 minutes ago, LRD said:

Eh? The ops, means and controls don't have large variants. All of them have been showing a basic broad pattern of a cool/cold UK high then retrogression to our NW for days now. The detail changes as you'd expect but the big picture hasn't. And, besides, if the output was being inconsistent then looking for guidance in other suites is surely valid?

As it is the EC46 has been rock solid for days on what it is showing this evening. It's consistency has been remarkable. Might be consistently wrong but it's a model and this is the model output thread

Thanks

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

That's 8th-15th...following weeks blocking anomalies as posted are far weaker, so difficult what to make of those (weak high pressure/weak low pressure)?

Less certainty, as would be expected at such range.

[IrelandWeather]

48 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

I keep seeing talk about a west based -NAO and I keep seeing absolutely no evidence for it whatsoever within any output or ensemble suite..

I thought I was understanding this west based -NAO more this week from reading posts about it but clearly I'm still stumped clearly!

If you have time can you explain why the GFS 12z FI isn't an example of west-based? Say Day 9/10 onwards. High migrates NW to Greenland, but it doesn't stop there and continually moves westward towards Canada (maybe moves is the wrong word, it's clearly weakening/draining away as it pulls towards Canada rather than a strong block moving west). It ends up with SW'lys by the end of the run. Of course, I'm aware it's one det run and FI and will change, but I'm asking more in the sense of 'this is what I thought X was, why am I wrong'. 

Perhaps others commenting about west-based -NAO, when it is in fact not being shown on any runs, have also confused what it is like me, in the sense of interpreting what I outlined above from the GFS 12z as being an example of it? I'm a novice so literally thought it meant the HP moves westwards towards Canada! TY in advance if you do shed some light on it.

Edited January 4 by IrelandWeather

[Froze were the Days]

7 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

I just told Mum to expect a lot of snow. . . And you know what that means! 

As long as it's not BFTP (Fred saying it)...hang on, God dam it!.

[LRD]

4 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

That's 8th-15th...following weeks blocking anomalies as posted are far weaker, so difficult what to make of those (weak high pressure/weak low pressure)?

It's a mid-range model - the signals will always get weaker the further out it goes

4 minutes ago, swfc said:

Thanks

You're welcome

Edited January 4 by LRD