Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[geordiekev]

8 minutes ago, IrelandWeather said:

I thought I was understanding this west based -NAO more this week from reading posts about it but clearly I'm still stumped clearly!

If you have time can you explain why the GFS 12z FI isn't an example of west-based? Say Day 9/10 onwards. High migrates NW to Greenland, but it doesn't stop there and continually moves westward towards Canada (maybe moves is the wrong word, it's clearly weakening/draining away as it pulls towards Canada rather than a strong block moving west). It ends up with SW'lys by the end of the run. 

Perhaps others commenting about west-based -NAO, when it is in fact not being shown on any runs, have also confused what it is like me, in the sense of interpreting what I outlined above from the GFS 12z as being an example of it? I'm a novice so literally thought it meant the HP moves westwards towards Canada! TY in advance if you do shed some light on it.

Yeah March last year was good example. It pivoted so far West I was actually viewing models on their sides to see where the cold was going. Not there at the moment but is certainly 1 of many outcomes but let's get the Greeny high in reliable first

Edited January 4 by geordiekev
Add chart

[swfc]

1 minute ago, LRD said:

It's a mid-range model - the signals will always get weaker the further out it goes

You're welcome

[stewfox]

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Some of you are looking for perfection on every run and perfection ain't possible..close to it yes. Even an Olympic pole volter wouldn't clear the bar some of you have raised.

Check the mean out its a cracker.

We had a Sausage. 

Is this a Matt Mushroom ?

We don't need egg on faces. Supporting chart attached 

 

[Eagle Eye]

Evening everyone, hope the forum isn't complaining over minor details again... 

Oh.

Meanwhile on the Day-10 EPS mean, still looking good, very similar mean to recent runs. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Eagle Eye said:

Evening everyone, hope the forum isn't complaining over minor details again... 

Oh.

Meanwhile on the Day-10 EPS mean, still looking good, very similar mean to recent runs. 

You can see brighter colours in the western side of Greenland..wouldn't that be hinting at West based high?

[LRD]

Anyway if I'm allowed to post these 'cos it goes beyond 144, here is the ECM 850s spaghetti for MBY:

Good clustering around the -7/-8 from about the 14th/15th. Some warmer runs appearing at the end (as there are on the GFS) so that's something to watch too. But for another day perhaps

[Eagle Eye]

7 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

You can see brighter colours in the western side of Greenland..wouldn't that be hinting at West based high?

Not really, very broad pattern overview after all and a west based high isn't the ending of it all anyway. The Atlantic is significantly undercooked. There's very little of a jet in the Atlantic.  The actual Geopotential height on the forecast suggests to me that it's just an issue w/the Greenland-Canada area being typically more stronger - VE heights than further east. Anomalies can be a bit misleading. 

Normalised anomaly is more central as I thought. 

Edited January 4 by Eagle Eye

[MATTWOLVES 3]

28 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 46 week 2 ..

You literally couldn't paint a more beautiful picture..

Well the only pictures I could think of more amazing would be these ones

Oh and another heads up for the forum.

Wild Scandinavia bbc 2 tonight at 11.15..about the most Northern extremes of the country and how the animals deal with the long polar nights.. looks a stunning programme.

Maybe watch it and get a sense of what could be coming to our shores..

Brilliant Commentary folks..this as been one of my best and favourite chases since I joined the forum and the last few days in here have helped me with all the stress I've been under..so thanks folks.

Now let's reel it in.

Edited January 4 by MATTWOLVES 3

[winterof79]

Superb and in all the years I've been posting the same culprits will put it down.JS etc.

[Southern Storm]

Not long now until the 18z start rolling 

But just to reiterate the point about precipitation and whether it's going to be of the white variety or not. I would suggest everyone  go and look at the Netweather radar.

I don't recall anyone mentioning sleet down south this evening! 

Get the cold in first and the snow Will follow!

[cold snap]

Noaa charts not supporting a prolonged  freeze 

[Lampostwatcher]

8 minutes ago, LRD said:

Anyway if I'm allowed to post these 'cos it goes beyond 144, here is the ECM 850s spaghetti for MBY:

Good clustering around the -7/-8 from about the 14th/15th. Some warmer runs appearing at the end (as there are on the GFS) so that's something to watch too. But for another day perhaps

Good clustering 14th -19th looks good for acumulative snow 🌨

[winterof79]

3 minutes ago, cold snap said:

Noaa charts not supporting a prolonged  freeze 

Any charts please

Edited January 4 by winterof79

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Any charts please

[Ali1977]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

That’ll do ️

[northwestsnow]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Whats wrong with that

[Metwatch]

17 minutes ago, Southern Storm said:

I would suggest everyone  go and look at the Netweather radar.

I don't recall anyone mentioning sleet down south this evening!

Highly unlikely to be sleet, ( @Kasim Awan can confirm) still 4.4C at 215m. Sleet you see on radar is fed in from model data I believe, radars themselves cannot distinguish precipitation type on their own (P.s mods, move to general winter chat thread if appropiate).

Edited January 4 by Metwatch

[stratty]

Radar hinting at some sleety stuff on some of the hills now down south. Poor people affected by flooding. Roads are going to be a nightmare when that high pressure creates those frosty nights 

 

[WINTRY WALES]

43 minutes ago, That ECM said:

You sound like Nigella Lawson describing a hot chocolate pudding with double cream.

Youve just reminded me I have that in the fridge

[Eagle Eye]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Looks pretty supportive of holding up the - VE NAM to me. As long as that holds up the cold is quite likely, that kind of chart looks like a very flipped pattern, wouldn't be surprised given the background signals if that keeps going w/renewed pulses. 

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Whats wrong with that

Zip

[joggs]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Would love John Homes take on it.

[Harveyslugger]

Just now, Metwatch said:

Highly unlikely to be sleet, still 4.4C at 215m. Sleet you see on radar is fed in from model data I believe, radars themselves cannot distinguish precipitation type on their own (P.s mods, move to general winter chat thread if appropiate).

So netweather radar is wrong?

[LRD]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Whats wrong with that

Absolutely nothing wrong with it

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Whats wrong with that

Not great at these charts but isn’t that showing Greenland height with a north easterly ?