Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[bluearmy]

The gem 00z suite develops a circulation n France mid next week which affects s central England 

very isolated so ignore for now but make a mental note in case another model picks it at some point today 

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The gem 00z suite develops a circulation n France mid next week which affects s central England 

very isolated so ignore for now but make a mental note in case another model picks it at some point today 

Definitely with keeping and eye on if you are in the south ! 

[TSNWK]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The gem 00z suite develops a circulation n France mid next week which affects s central England 

very isolated so ignore for now but make a mental note in case another model picks it at some point today 

Not sure we are cold enough next week.. but in week 1 Jan 10 a similar situation brought nearly a foot in Central southern England 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Big changes on the icon..as early as 54h..high further north!

[Jason H]

11 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Maybe they give a realistic view rather than ramping. Southern Ireland gets as much snow as anywhere else as we can be hit from the East and West. The gfs was poor last night and worse this morning. The ecm was good and I said that. That's not doom posting its posting what the charts show

The reality is very few have seen a snowflake half way through Winter. Having said that background noises remain good

I disagree. You'll need specific set up to get heavy snow in Ireland, especially Southern Ireland. Current model output doesn't look good for your location with the current set up. If you've no interest in cold weather, only snow, you're going to be disappointed, or realistic as you've pointed out. 

[SussexSnow]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

Big changes on the icon..as early as 54h..high further north!

Which can only be a good thing for early next week.

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Big changes on the icon..as early as 54h..high further north!

Uppers please?

[markw2680]

Some very strange posts in here again this morning, you have a few which seem to want it all to be over and keep posting so, a few are hooked on every single model op run and run the commentary. You are not going to have every run the same or upgrade etc that’s like 10 days away! It’s fi for a reason whether it shows cold or mild. Look to the more reliable and that’s early next week at most. That could spring some surprises! And then once the high settles on us yes the uppers are not as cold as it’s very slack but trust me that will be freezing. The cold is coming but nobody knows what will follow from mid week next week at the latest 

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Big changes on the icon..as early as 54h..high further north!

Its a stronger high rather than much further north, so uppers slightly colder - might help later 

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Uppers please?

Not much different -8 in southeast corner..early Monday morning

Edited January 5 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[Drifter]

2 minutes ago, Buzz said:

And this will unfortunately continue until the mods adopt a zero tolerance approach and actually permanently ban the usual trolling suspects (not only their accounts but also block their IP addresses). Of course that doesn't prevent those offenders from using a VPN and creating new accounts but they can easily be spotted and summarily dealt with.

Come on mods, stop being so lenient - start permanently banning those who regularly disrupt these threads. You know who they are.

Yes, let’s clamp down on free speech. Blimey!

[Garthvader]

Could someone please post current icon output cant view at work ....tia

[IDO]

FWIW and JFF; to highlight the uncertainty and agreement, a comparison of D10 op charts for the three (ECM, GEM & GFS):

They all have diverted from a bullseye GH. The ECM is the closest (S Greenland tip) but the GFS mid-lat (Iceland), and the GEM towards Baffin Island. All react differently with the Arctic high. So cold likely on all, but the nature, intensity and longevity, are all open to debate. See if the GFS 06z can help with the trends.

[Ali1977]

Icon v similar to earlier at T102

[frosty ground]

last nights GFS with its wobbly wheel OP run which was still a good run

This mornings GFS run with a few bolts coming lose

 

It’s not negative to show these changes it’s a fact, the ECM op has also picked up on a bit more energy of Greenland hence the block not becoming a true GH.

are these runs fact? Of course the outlook is still very good but it’s not a smooth ride but it rarely is.

there is a big difference in showing something that has changed vs  going on about invisible west based -ve NAO. And pointing out all the ways something could go wrong that helps no one.

the GFS has picked up on something and the ECM op has also picked up on something, could be gone by 12z might make more of it but that’s what this thread is for.

 

[FreezingFog]

1 hour ago, January Snowstorm said:

Indeed but most on here look for cold in the hoped that it delivers snow eventually. I can only speak for myself but if it's not going to snow I have zero interest in cold

We are waiting a long-time to get this home. A mid latitude high eating into January is not what most want. It might as well get mild 

I dunno JS, from someone else living on the south (east) coast of Ireland the cold and dry forecast for the next week is glorious. I'm guessing you are urban based, the countryside does not need more mild as this is almost always means wet and windy in January. 

[Fergpfc]

17 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Not sure we are cold enough next week.. but in week 1 Jan 10 a similar situation brought nearly a foot in Central southern England 

Even on the coast

[Dennis]

splitting vortex around midmonth forseen

 

[MJB]

25 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Uppers please?

[TSNWK]

4 minutes ago, MJB said:

Thank you.  Don't think there's much happening there by way of snow..

[Ali1977]

Heights start rising around Greenland when you tab between 114 and 120 - let’s hope we get early height rises on the GFS - get this place buzzing again 

[Cymro]

1 hour ago, Harveyslugger said:

Or SW wales

Fortunately in Wales we often have altitude and latitude on our side re most of Wales landmass is above 200m and generally north of the M4 . For our westerly location we punch well above our weight! 

[festivalking]

As mentioned earlier and to put a bit more meat on the bones GEM has indicated a possible snow event for central southern england on the 10th. ICON didn't really run with it so lets see what the GFS suggests

[Purga]

Despite the mini drama, the EPS look pretty solid to me. In fact the longer term mean is a tad better than the 12z yesterday with tighter cold clustering and lfewer mild runs..

[MattStoke]

7 minutes ago, festivalking said:

As mentioned earlier and to put a bit more meat on the bones GEM has indicated a possible snow event for central southern england on the 10th. ICON didn't really run with it so lets see what the GFS suggests

Coldest mid level airmass over Southern England and Northern France. Don't see that very often.

It wouldn't be a surprise to see weaker heights over Greenland than on most model output currently given that heights are notoriously poorly modelled in that area but that doesn't necessarily mean a collapse to any cold spell of course.

Edited January 5 by MattStoke