Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Snowman.]

Just now, booferking said:

Ecm not very good at all Greenland heights in danger maybe gfs on to something.

GFS and ECM are completely different.

GFS doesn't give a decent push in GL, ECM has a strong pacific ridge which leaches off our high and gets sucked West.

Massive difference and at complete different ends of the spectrum.

[Weathizard]

Just now, booferking said:

Ecm not very good at all Greenland heights in danger maybe gfs on to something.

Not very good at all? I’m genuinely astonished anyone can say that chart isn’t good… if you’re expecting 1963 charts at that stage then yes it’s not very good but if we got to that stage above on the 14th January I would be very happy with that.

It’s all relative, not very good… I could post several NH profiles that are not very good and that’s definitely not one.

[Captain Shortwave]

A completely different orientation of the Pacific ridge in this run, pushing right through Alaska and interacting with the Atlantic ridge. Previous runs did not have this keeping the discreet Atlantic ridge and trying to build the block from this alone.

The cold will come and the polar profile is quite astonishing here. 
Todays 12z vs yesterday’s 

   

Edited January 5 by Captain Shortwave

[ICE COLD]

Yep this is not Good . Never easy ay . 

Today 
 

 

yesterdays

 

that is a huge downgrade . Preying it’s an outlier. Onto the ens we move . 

[weathercold]

The wheels are falling off here…fast! IF ECM is correct of course. Not good at all.

[jules216]

Couple of more corrections and west based -NAO is there like I said before. Already euro high pressure is back on ECMWF and cold anchored in Scandinavia like its been All winter. Its been a while since last proper cold month - January 2017 here in Slovakia.

[weathercold]

9 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Wouldn't call it a shocker.I think last 2 frames will be decent..or not this is a real struggle to get the cold down south..it's not coming forward is it..always day 10 onwards

It’s really poor v a few days back no question at all. Major downgrade.

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Very very sobering indeed!!!!i mentioned the danger of this and so did crewecold earlier on!!changes are not over yet though so i think we need to start fresh tomorrow and see if we can turn this around!!!i believe we still can!!!!

Can clearly see a major backwards trend over last 24 hrs. GFS first and now ECM. 

[TSNWK]

4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Mate compared to last nights run and this morning that is a proper downgrade. 
 

This is not far into FI it’s 168 to 192 . . 

Um that's the big news item for the whole of the 12Z - GFS always flaps, beyond Day 8ish. UKM we don't see beyond day 7 ( so maybe that's why Met-office updates are not full tonto) GEM again flaps from Day 8 - however ECM is like an oil-tanker and rarely veers up to day 8 - it flaps Day 10 - but this is the biggest worry, ECM bringing in Euro heights  ( all be it small) into the equation at day 8.

Houston!

[Ice Day]

Not a great chart at 216, but we've been thoroughly spoiled for the last few days so we were due a less cold run.  As stated earlier, I think 144 is stretching the limits of the output at the moment, so all runs beyond day 6 should be treated with a huge pinch of salt.

The 240 has the cold struggling to get in

 

Looking forward to the mean a bit later and where the op sits.

[Ali1977]

UKMO at 168 - let’s cling on to that for now and see what the ENS say - could be an outlier.
 

Clearly it’s hard to model and blocking over Greenland's land mass - if upgrades happen overnight we will be hitting a more reliable timeframe - likewise the other way of course!! I think we are still in the game - the METO update is great, their super computer may have a better handle on it. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Lets wait for eps, if they start downgrading then it is time to worry, if they hold firm then we're still in with a good shout, must admit i was hoping to start firming up on something by now though, rather than just being in contention.

[Mike Poole]

ECM T240:

Realigns slightly better end of run, but that’s some weak heights, thing is though, it is enough to hold the Atlantic at bay because it is completely dead.

[Kasim Awan]

ECM days 9/10 good for longevity still colder than average with slow SW flow and strong NE flow upper atmosphere.

Edited January 5 by Kasim Awan

[weathercold]

3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Not very good at all? I’m genuinely astonished anyone can say that chart isn’t good… if you’re expecting 1963 charts at that stage then yes it’s not very good but if we got to that stage above on the 14th January I would be very happy with that.

It’s all relative, not very good… I could post several NH profiles that are not very good and that’s definitely not one.

Disagree - in terms of recent days projections for the 15th it’s poor. No question.

It many not be poor comparable to recent crud winters but in terms of where many folk hoped to be week after next - it’s poor.

[Ali1977]

In a normal winters day we’d be very happy with this at day 10 

[Snowman.]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

UKMO at 168 - let’s cling on to that for now and see what the ENS say - could be an outlier.
 

Clearly it’s hard to model and blocking over Greenland's land mass - if upgrades happen overnight we will be hitting a more reliable timeframe - likewise the other way of course!! I think we are still in the game - the METO update is great, their super computer may have a better handle on it. 

UKMO is the best run, lets not forget the 12z improved too. Awaiting the ECM ens with great anxiety.

[Alexis]

ECM looks great to me. Personally I would rather have low pressures milling about in cold air rather than a north easterly very cold blast where the west gets nothing.

[on the coast]

The cold is sinking South. I really dont see the problem.

 

[Harsh Climate]

6 minutes ago, booferking said:

Ecm not very good at all Greenland heights in danger maybe gfs on to something.

Na, these border line situations is where all the snow comes from, Central Northern England do very well from these set ups! . Not so much the south unless its channel low territory.

[booferking]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Not very good at all? I’m genuinely astonished anyone can say that chart isn’t good… if you’re expecting 1963 charts at that stage then yes it’s not very good but if we got to that stage above on the 14th January I would be very happy with that.

It’s all relative, not very good… I could post several NH profiles that are not very good and that’s definitely not one.

Trust me what was offer previous runs compared to this yes this is not very good mate if you want frost knock yourself out you'll get that with Ecm tonight it might get there in the end but the trend to delay the northerly not good hopefully an outlier in the suit.

[Chesil View]

No doubt there will be nervous nelly's getting worried. But in reality the 12z ecm is simply a slightly slower evolution to the same outcome as before and one that has always been in the ensemble envelope.

[iowpompeylee]

4 minutes ago, weathercold said:

It’s really poor v a few days back no question at all. Major downgrade.

Can clearly see a major backwards trend over last 24 hrs. GFS first and now ECM. 

I feel we have the comfort blanket of the UKMO longer outlook. UKMO looks good, and I’d rather follow them into battle than any of the others modes tbf 

[IDO]

As others have said, it is best to treat this as fun until, at the earliest, Sunday 12z. There is high uncertainty, and it is quite possible that we have not even seen the final solution modelled yet!

The ECM is not bad; people just took the last two days' picture-perfect GH literally when we know Greenland Highs never verifies well at that range. See what tomorrow brings. 850s ECM:

 

[Vikos]

Still 15th of January plus/minus 1-2 days. Everything good  

[Lukesluckybunch]

You could see from 144..it wasn't gonna be a great run..the push into Greenland just wants there!.let's hope it's an outlier