Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Andy8472]

3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Not concerned about ecm at all..the NH looks good and the ops are just feeling about.

Mogreps 12s and I sense those temps are about to drop again..take a look at Norwich and you can see a more dramatic fall away..perhaps winds swinging more Netly! 

Some northerly's in there!

[Bricriu]

3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Variations on the same theme is what I see from the latest model runs, this is a blocked atlantic, with heights either just to our north and west preventing any significant cold from moving in from the NE, but cold all the same, or further NW allowing the cold trough to our NE to pool over the UK, possibly merging with low heights to our SW. 

Lets see where the latest ECM op sits in the ECM ensembles.

It all  seems a bit too messy, we could end up with cold rain  instead of snow for many. This ECM run feels like a gut punch to the stomach.  We can only hope its not well  supported.  Typical GFS to not be performing  particularly  well in the verification  stakes, but could  ending  up  being right  with its signal  for heights to wane in Greenland. 

[phil nw.]

Please keep on topic people.

Some bickering posts about who might get snow have been hidden.

Please use the Winter chat threads for this type of discussion

 

Thanks.

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, Andy8472 said:

Some northerly's in there!

Most northerly or if not a channel low in cold air - full house

Edited January 5 by Ali1977

[Metwatch]

If only the deterministic runs and ensembles came out both at the same time it would make life easier and civilised with respect to model watching. Ensembles and clusters are the way to go always for those less experienced or new to model watching!

[ScottSnow]

To me the 12z ECMWF maintains the theme of blocking to our north /northwest the week after next. The evolution isn’t as clean as we would like but the models could quite easily turn back to a more favourable evolution tomorrow.

We are still looking at charts that are over a week away. We aren’t going to know for certain what’s going to happen until this time next week.

I do think one or two people on here have been premature in thinking it’s a done deal for cold. As witnessed from todays runs things can still change but it is still all to play for. Enjoy the ride !

[Met4Cast]

EPS mean looks good to me.. 

[chris55]

1 hour ago, SussexSnow said:

P23 has a pretty decent snow event for the South on 15/16 Jan.

Just what caught my eye too!

Please remember individual ensemble members are purposefully initiated with incorrect starting data….

I do get it that they look great on the screen, 
but ensemble members are, as the name describes, used to balance the effectiveness of the operational, and should never ever be used in isolation.

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

EPS mean looks good to me.. 

At day ten,...still looking good mate

Edited January 5 by Allseasons-Si
typo

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

EPS mean looks good to me.. 

Thanks for sharing, still going for a very cold N/ NE airstream and blocked atlantic for mid Jan. 

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

EPS mean looks good to me.. 

Cold and systems ending into the south - could be a very snowy period around 10 days from now. 

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

EPS mean looks good to me.. 

It’s no where near as good as this morning tho . Still decent but not as good . Look at this mornings to now that has downgraded. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

The ecm op was warmer then the mean..but not an outlier

[booferking]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

EPS mean looks good to me.. 

Last nights compared to tonight's for 13th Jan.

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Last nights compared to tonight's for 13th Jan.

Unfortunately the means have backtracked as well   all be it from a very high bar..   

[joggs]

21 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

I read the forum before checking the ECM and some are acting like it’s showing raging zonality & mild weather. I think some people need a reality check. 

It’s still blocked & increasingly cold. It’s also a single deterministic run, let’s wait for the ensembles shall we? 

GEFS ensembles were good, I’m sure we won’t see any significant movement from the EPS either. Chill out. 

It's a few deterministic runs across all suites that have lessoned the (nailed on Greenland heights). If people want to play it that way,that's up to them.

GFS,started it last night and other models followed suit today,I see no problem with that.

Yes,you're right the overall pattern is good(not as good imo)but the GEFS n EPS can change also.

[winterof79]

Never scrolled through posts so quickly in here but it's a sign of the times i suppose

Cracking.

[booferking]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Unfortunately the means have backtracked as well   all be it from a very high bar..   

This mornings mean there is no denying.

[Ali1977]

Yes it may not look as good this evening - but we are still very much looking like a good cold month is on the way. On the day the METO upgrades their long range we should remain cautiously optimistic that we’ll see better charts overnight.

Long range EPS mean - the purples are completely where we want them - even better than the last run which had some purple in the USA. Prolonged cold still coming. 

Edited January 5 by Ali1977

[TSNWK]

11 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

 

When @Nick Fmooted yesterday that he was sitting tight when when we were treated to belters at day 10.  I probed a little to understand why as i felt it was interesting statement at time reading between the lines and with nick being a pro I inquired why? Response was simply because its day 10.... looks like he was right to sit tight at least pan widget

Edited January 5 by Paul
Removed quote as that post has been hidden

[chris55]

1 hour ago, booferking said:

Ecm not very good at all Greenland heights in danger maybe gfs on to something.

Not very good?

 

Im baffled by some members interpretations of the current synoptic pattern….

Northern hemisphere’s profile is rare as hens teeth in mid winter.

Split vortex with the thrust of energy to the eastern side of the globe. Not a Barlette in sight and the Atlantic onslaught non existent. 

I’ll get my coat….and thermals ready;)

 

 

[Man With Beard]

Latest ECM mean definitely not as hot with the Greenland High.

But I'd still have bitten your hand off for the chart a week ago. Flow is still from north for UK.

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters are not very helpful, because there is only one in the T192-T240 timeframe.  Which either means they have it nailed, or haven’t a clue.  I know where my money is on that:

T120-T168:

A difference here about how far west the main push north is, cluster 1 (including op) west of cluster 2.

T192-T240:

For what it is worth.  Would need to check the individual runs to see if there is anything to be learned.

T264+:

This is just noise - I am not going to try and interpret it.

Edited January 5 by Mike Poole

[booferking]

The old winter menace is back along with weakening of Greenland heights hopefully a wobbly.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 02/01/2024 at 14:35, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

First off I'd like to wish you all a happy new year

Leading onto my prior post(s)

 

This week is the beginning of the expected 500hpa shifts with a Rossby Wave Break which takes a low from the UK down into Italy and begins the switch toward what is known as a 'Southerly tracking Jet' 

I've always remained focused into January week 2 for the shift to a colder pattern, I expect the first major talking point is the ongoing negative PNA coming into the 500hpa pattern 

This causes a trough to take shape over the Western US which looks like having an opportunity to threaten cold temperature records and with the low pressure setting up I wouldn't be surprised for significant snow in this region 

For the UK as the -PNA feedback paired to the MJO feedback covered in my previous post develops this sees high pressure and blocking being the main influence at least for a time more on that below, all the relevant 500hpa composites are covered in my prior post however using the JMA MJO evolution covers it / simplifies it rather well for learners etc

Starting with the Southerly tracking Jet & trough plus the build in heights through and North of the UK

So with the -PNA and MJO feedback being at the forefront we see the below average temperatures begin as we go into January week 2

With this stage of proceedings dominated by higher pressure this will bring drier than average conditions and you'll also be able to watch the Jet becoming directed increasingly further south as discussed.

With this being high pressure in control during this period this equates to 850hpa temps above average particularly closest to the highs centre ie North UK and to the North of the UK

Now lets dive into the MJO because it carries importance at various levels. This cycle across the Indian Ocean is likely THE one which begins and coincides with the positive Indian Ocean Dipole event which is still gradually weakening however now begins to do so in a more dramatic fashion compared to the slowish weakening from October

 

Not shocking to be seeing some further interfering into the MJO's progress over the IO in particular the CFS expecting that more so than the GEFS and GFS, This could have some impact with regard to an important evolution of the cyclonic developments across Canada into the Maritimes I'd still favour mid Jan but might be slightly later should we get the interference a la the CFS.

Through Jan week 2 toward the aforementioned middle month period we'll have the -NAO,-AO,PNA,El Ninò,MJO and Easterly QBO feeding towards the setup going retrogressive this will have a couple of significant changes with a westwards moving trough which links with expectations into elongation with the centre over the Baltics, Scandinavia as this is occuring the high pressure and block will shift northwestward to reside across Greenland this is more supporting of colder 850hpa temps likely from the Northeast, we maintain below average surface temps during this with possible scope for these to get colder

My thinking holds steady with the MJO working into the Maritimes generally Mid Jan maybe into January week 3 as this increases cyclonic developments seeing these sorts of 500hpa setups during that period is very plausible. 

These 500hpa setups also once more continue being prominent in the precursors which have been most effective in leading to weaker Vortex and potential further stratospheric warming(s)

 

Wonderful showcase of El Ninò surface temperature patterns during winter on the go of late in America 

Into the start of January week 2 which is Monday we'll have some supportive upper level ingredients giving a chance of snow streamer development on the southern end of the block across the UK and North Sea. This time period never had a focal point towards an abundance of wintry precipitation and snow as explained 

 

 

 

Seeing the heart of these colder temperatures at surface and upper level becoming centred through Europe with just the far south of the UK clinging to is perfectly anticipated thanks to the phase 7 feedback which also gives a swathe of Australia Central also colder than average conditions 

On 02/01/2024 at 14:35, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Through Jan week 2 toward the aforementioned middle month period we'll have the -NAO,-AO,PNA,El Ninò,MJO and Easterly QBO feeding towards the setup going retrogressive this will have a couple of significant changes with a westwards moving trough which links with expectations into elongation with the centre over the Baltics, Scandinavia as this is occuring the high pressure and block will shift northwestward to reside across Greenland this is more supporting of colder 850hpa temps likely from the Northeast, we maintain below average surface temps during this with possible scope for these to get colder

At the moment we're looking at the latter stage of Jan week 2 MIDMONTH through about 5>6 days for the coldest surface and 850hpa temps