Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

6 minutes ago, MJB said:

Stunning run 

Just need the ECM to show this at the end of its run tomorrow now!

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

And there's your GFS folks, a day behind the rest.

Pure cannon fodder of a model.

Remember thought the ecm wasn't great ..

[northwestsnow]

Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

Just need the ECM to show this at the end of its run tomorrow now!

Well the tricky bit there is two fold

GFS to repeat the trick and EC to attempt it

[Northern Sky]

It's a great run but like it's predecessors it's just one solution in the envelope of possibilities. We've got a rough guide of what the broad scale pattern will be but for the UK it's going to vary and increasingly so the further out it is. 

It's fine to get excited by the possibilities a great run shows but if you want to avoid the manic mood swings it's best to remember what they show is possibilities and nothing more. 

Pressure is going to rise to the West and it looks like a trough is going to drop to the East of it. To what extent we'll have to wait and see. 

[Jason M]

For me, good thing is that key timeframes are now inside 192 hours. Far from guaranteed but its no longer at completely ridiculous timescales.

IMHO, ignore day 10 and beyond. This happens to be a good run deep in FI but its as likely to be right as the 12Z opp at that range. 

[ICE COLD]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Well the tricky bit there is two fold

GFS to repeat the trick and EC to attempt it

Don’t forget tho the GEM was still decent tonight too . Now the 18z is a ripper . Just need them all to be rippers in the morning . 

[Allseasons-Si]

No marginality there with the isotherm elevation at ground 0 meters across the UK.

 

[Eagle Eye]

9 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Interested in the southwards movement of much colder mid-Trop air than recent runs on this GFS run. More like the actual vortex semi-collapsing because go the Greenland retrogression than previous runs. I suspect it's an outlier of a run then but it could become a trend, feels more of an 'old school' type? Assuming a proper vortex collapse were to happen, it's what brings a lot of the USA's big snowstorms w/this being like a variation of cross-polar flow, problem is we'll likely find it harder for precipitation but it's gold standard flow.

Remarkably the  mid-Trop gets to very cold on this run, w/-40 degrees celsius at the 500hPa level which is generally the start point for an Arctic blast episode (not the ones on the newspaper but it's suggestive of genuine Arctic air). I feel this is unlikely to happen but just look what's possible if it does on this pub run.

[ICE COLD]

It’s still going great at day 13

[Wold Topper]

After reading umpteen pages i think my head has finally popped

[Metwatch]

Another small polar low into southern England there, very heavy snow while temperatures several degrees below zero. My word if this came to be in reality.

Then temperatures plummet to negative double digits under snow cover...

Edited January 5 by Metwatch

[northwestsnow]

Well it's been fun watching 18z ..

We all know it's not too be taken too seriously at day 8 but I'd rather see something good than bad ,good runs should be embraced ,hopefully not a massive outlier !!

[TSNWK]

-5 warm sector low from the north west is darn special donr think I can recall seeing it before

 

 

Edited January 5 by TSNWK

[Kentspur]

27 minutes ago, Coopsy said:

Yup could def see a few cms from this set up. Locally more for those in the firing line.

North Kent generally benefit well from this set up, from the streamer type formation as well as the advantage of having orographic lift from 0-200m plus in a few miles. 

Though anyone on the north sea coast and further inland could benefit depending on wind direction and intensity and how far inland they get. 

Usual spots at higher elevation could do well along North Downs of Kent from Biggin Hill along to Detling Hill, and in between like Lordswood, Walderslade, BlueBell Hill etc. 

Definitely I've been stuck at my friends who used to live in Lordswood twice before once 8inches of snow while there's a slush fest 2miles away on lower ground! Same.here there won't be anything by the Thames a 2mile drive south or east and it can be like Narnia. Interesting how there's no mention on TV forecasts yet not even "possible Showers"

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

It’s still going great at day 13

Don't forget it only started at day 10 though..

[Sweatyman]

12 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

What a snorter of a run . Hopefully similar runs on the 00z .

haha! no chance!! 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Rayth said:

The 18z never fails to strip tease does it , you think you pulled Riley Reid and then you wake up next to susan boyle ! 
 

it’s the hope that kills 

20 years of 88th minute defeats can be a tad sobering ,at times playing against 10 men and a bent referee in the chairman's pocket and still managing glorious defeat...

[Mcconnor8]

UKMO 18z HD that runs to 66 hours looks colder than the UKMO 12z

-14s on their way!

[Bricriu]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ridiculous lol

I am burnt out. Haha. I can't take anymore twists  and turns.  Is it true that less data goes into to this GFS run?

[lorenzo]

Beast from the errr .. West..

[Purga]

Nice little Met Office special feature  for the midlands & hopefully the South when the time comes.

[Ventnor Viking]

2 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

Another small polar low into southern England there, very heavy snow while temperatures several degrees below zero. My word if this came to be in reality.

Guaranteed rain for the Isle of Wight though

[Mcconnor8]

Just now, Bricriu said:

I am burnt out. Haha. I can't take anymore twists  and turns.  Is it true that less data goes into to this GFS run?

No data is very similar on all the GFS runs.

[mountain shadow]

Been a long time since we've seen a stonking pub run like this.

[LetItSnow!]

13 minutes ago, MJB said:

Stunning run 

What's interesting about the tentative signals for mid-January is how there seems to be cold flooding into three directions. I've spoken to my American friends recently who aren't weather enthusiasts but were remarking about such a tepid December. It goes to show (many, many years gone by already have) that you can simultaneously have US cold and Europe/Asia cold. As stated, still in the tentative stages, but... 2024, I think I might like what you're about... we'll see. Fantastic runs. Hello, winter!