Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[FreezingFog]

1 hour ago, January Snowstorm said:

The 18z is the best run of the week!! Major upgrade here folks, both in next week's Easterly and more so next weekend!

 

1 hour ago, January Snowstorm said:

I've a feeling the models over corrected earlier, a thing they can do!! Why do I feel tomorrow is going to be a day of incredible charts!!

 

59 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

It would be up there with 2010 and cause widespread disruption!! Background signals much better, Meto update very good

Game on!!

JS what happened to your "Decades of experience of seeing it flip last minute especially when cold is involved"

More runs needed more than ever!

[sheikhy]

7 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Jma 18z  v gfs

Pretty close fit 

Ecm out in over an hour!!will it finally upgrade that easterly early on!!!!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Mean not so impressive in 850's but it does look better around greenland

Edited January 5 by Lukesluckybunch
Spelling

[Mcconnor8]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

Mean not so impressive in 850's but it does look better sound greenland

Does seem to be a few more mild runs than the 12z, but also some very good runs including the OP so all to play for.

[Norrance]

44 minutes ago, PsychedelicTony said:

Polar Lows aren't picked up until they form I think?

 

Correct. John Holmes has a topic in the learning area that explains. 
https://community.netweather.tv/learning/basics/polar-lows-r76/?do=getNewComment&d=1&id=76&_gl=1*drj0nm*_up*MQ..*_ga*MTM4NTUyMDkxNy4xNzA0NDk4Mjg3*_ga_PB759SXNQX*MTcwNDQ5ODI4NC4xLjEuMTcwNDQ5ODI4OS4wLjAuMA..

edit. Just to add that this one in the 18z is a low forming in the polar regions and coming down in the flow. Not the same thing.

Edited January 5 by Norrance

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Does seem to be a few more mild runs than the 12z, but also some very good runs including the OP so all to play for.

Yea -4 more of an average this time..rather then -6/8

[terrier]

So looks like the gfs pub run has certainly been on the lash tonight. Let’s see what tomorrow output shows. Fingers crossed for some sort of model consistency tomorrow. But what’s the betting toys & prams will be flying everywhere in the morning. Maybe we need an amber warning for flying toys and prams. In fact scrap that let’s upgrade to a level red warning

[February1978]

13 minutes ago, Vikos said:

here you go

That's interesting - an initial look says most data is about the same - except the aircraft (upper air) data for 0z (overnight...) and less balloon data (also upper air) is available for 6z and 18z.

Is this right?

I guess most upper air data come from satellites these days?

Excellent GFS to settle some nerves, btw

Edited January 5 by February1978

[FreezingFog]

Seriously we aren't getting sucked in by the Pubs runs FI. Some range of solutions being offered by the models today. 

Edited January 5 by FreezingFog

[mountain shadow]

What a run that was, a thing of beauty.

[Mcconnor8]

10 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm out in over an hour!!will it finally upgrade that easterly early on!!!!

Almost certain it will given the other models, the OP was slightly on the milder side of the pack in the 12z too.

[Richard Fisher]

23 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Oh we do indeed KRO 

I would rather Boing Boing into the next snowy heaven. UTB.

[SnoFlakeEar]

16 minutes ago, terrier said:

So looks like the gfs pub run has certainly been on the lash tonight. Let’s see what tomorrow output shows. Fingers crossed for some sort of model consistency tomorrow. But what’s the betting toys & prams will be flying everywhere in the morning. Maybe we need an amber warning for flying toys and prams. In fact scrap that let’s upgrade to a level red warning

So what’s your thoughts on output tomorrow ? Continual down grades? Any charts to show how you think things will evolve;

[Mark wheeler]

UKMO 18z , Only goes out to 66 hours but could we see further upgrades to this  initial easterly .

look at those 850s approaching from the east

Edited January 6 by Mark wheeler

[Day_9]

 

6z vs 12z gfs ensembles (for Cardiff):

12 looks cleaner/more confident but still a massive amount of scatter and look at the way some of the members just plummet  which will clearly never happen that quickly, hence the air of cautions when getting excited about single members and single runs.

Either way, a thankful period of dry for all those currently affected by floods, the last thing they need now is subzero.

[Met4Cast]

Met Office 7-14 day forecast now beginning to highlight a significant snow risk. 

Despite the slight wobbles within modelling the broader theme going forward remains largely the same as the last few days. 

[geordiekev]

2 hours ago, Allseasons-Si said:

And everyone was throwing the towels in by a few wobbly runs,pick them back up and wipe the sweat away...

To see evolutions that appeared much later in the runs of recent, now getting within the D10s is quite something. 

From La La Land to ooh la la. Ofcourse now it's within the cross hairs of all models, expect swings both ways, so best not get too excited or despondent.

The 0z GFS this week, bar 1,  I believe, all had spoiler lows preventing the Pacific/Greeny Highs, so would love to know why that is. Hence, I've been reviewing the full day of runs, rather than 1 timeset & good to see the outcome I'd prefer, just for the rarity value, now modelled slightly sooner.

[geordiekev]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Control looks good day 8

Weren't similar outcomes still at t300 mark, till yesterday & suddenly jumped fwd a few days.

Me I'm still happy to have a drying out period as has been modelled since Christmas & as ever the run in will always show options, good & bad.

Feet still on ground until the concensus is decided upon, so will be an even more tense week but looking forward to crisp brighter skies in the meantime & see what kind of results these charts could produce 

[The Enforcer]

GEFS18z P01 & P14 still pushing a SW attack option leading to more rain and flooding, which I don't like very much:

Edited January 6 by The Enforcer

[WYorksWeather]

Unfortunately, despite the very impressive looking OP, it's towards the bottom of the ensemble, and there's no two ways about it, the GFS is following the ECM 12z and has downgraded the cold signal for the south. I've checked areas further north and it's less of a downgrade for Northern England, and little change for Scotland.

Let's see what the morning brings. Still plenty of time for shifts in either direction.

[Don]

28 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

Unfortunately, despite the very impressive looking OP, it's towards the bottom of the ensemble, and there's no two ways about it, the GFS is following the ECM 12z and has downgraded the cold signal for the south. I've checked areas further north and it's less of a downgrade for Northern England, and little change for Scotland.

Let's see what the morning brings. Still plenty of time for shifts in either direction.

Little between them for the next 7 days though.

[Daniel*]

I know a certain John moans about lack of sea ice, it’s currently above all years in the past 19 (2005). Of course if we use 1981-2010 normal it’s still well below average, nonetheless this is unusual on recent normals where Arctic climate has warmed most fast. They say even 10 year averages in some situations over 30 years, are more appropriate in Arctic that’s how fast these areas have warmed. How this boils back to models will we are seeing significant cold to N, GFS 18z is a good example potent Arctic front…. reduced CAA modification from less open water in North Atlantic similarly in Baltic Sea as we look to our northeast seeing most significant “early” freeze up since 2010, winds from these regions are expected to be colder increasing likelihood of temperatures cold enough to support snowfall.

 

[Battleground Snow]

Icon and gfs both upgrade the cold pool at day 3, widely -11s and further north

Icon ends like this

[January Snowstorm]

Yes Icon and gfs up the ante yet again with cold pool early next week!! It's now an event  no question. I'm liking this for Southern Ireland especially, it has spell of snow written all over it!!

[Liam Burge]

I have a feeling this run is going to be something special. Stronger heights over us, the PV looks better aligned (at least imo) and seems like an easier retrogression towards greenland as the lower pressure is weaker.

0z vs 18z