Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[January Snowstorm]

This is the gfs at 240hrs. Ukmo looks like it would go similar. I presume the disappointment with gfs is what it shows at like +300hrs?? That is one awesome gfs run I think

Also the cold pool in 3 days time is upgrading almost by the minute

[Chesil View]

Looking purely at the 0z Det runs.

Gfs and gem pick of the bunch at 240hr. ECM goes more Atlantic ridge route. Whether we're any nearer the final evolution this morning I'm not really sure.

[Garthvader]

Long way to go before we reach this think there may be other surprises but if this is worse case scenario things could be a lot worse!!

Edited January 6 by Garthvader
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[Wolfgang]

Hi - I’ve just signed up but been a lurker for a few years. Learning as I go along! Quick question - how is the op chosen from the ens. Is this purely random or is there some form of equation employed to select this. Could be talking absolute nonsense here of course.

[Lukesluckybunch]

6 minutes ago, Garthvader said:

Long way to go before we reach this think there may be other surprises but if this is worse case scenario things could be a lot worse!!

In my opinion the most likely option at the moment is for a cold /very cold few days from the northeast around midmonth..not much evidence of strong blocking around greenland..so perhaps some weak heights to the northwest then a collapse of the pattern..that's just how I see it currently

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters this morning, T120-T168:

The op is in cluster 3, and you can see this has the least, and furthest west, ‘window’ to squeeze the heights north through.  This is what we need to look out for by T168 on future runs, all the other clusters give more leeway.  Cluster 2 is behind schedule, cluster 4 allows the most significant migration north.  

T192-T240:

Again only one in the key timeframe, but it is clear that this is because the model doesn’t know, but the representative member here is nothing like the op run, with a much stronger block, and if this is the one closest to the mean (which it should be) then this bodes well, I think.

T264+:

Like last night, a plethora of options, cluster 2 being the most obvious continuity cluster, but really the model is saying ‘here be dragons’!

Edited January 6 by Mike Poole

[Garthvader]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

In my opinion the most likely option at the moment is for a cold /very cold few days from the northeast around midmonth..not much evidence of strong blocking around greenland..so perhaps some weak heights to the northwest then a collapse of the pattern..that's just how I see it currently

Could well be the case with more to play for towards end of the month hopefully strong background blocking signals reinforce

[I remember Atlantic 252]

last 2 GFS runs look snowy deep FI, feature coming in from NW, but not expecting it to come off

[carinthian]

41 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

UKV big upgrade for Monday night 

Thanks a nice winter chart that and is only a few hours away ! ( Will there be more upgrades I ask in the shorter term ) ,  A prolonged cold outlook from the models this morning UKM0/GEM/GFS. Not sure about ECM run this morning, defo throws doubt into the equations but to my eye does not look correct. Anyway , the GEM extented chart ( below ) goes on and shows some amazing cold around Iceland in its extended. Think I have never seen such low values that far south. Whether British Isles taps into that sort of feed is another question but certainly the models continue to show potential for a very cold ❄ Mid -Winter period.

C

Edited January 6 by carinthian

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM clusters this morning, T120-T168:

T192-T240:

Again only one in the key timeframe, but it is clear that this is because the model doesn’t know, but the representative member here is nothing like the op run, with a much stronger block, and if this is the one closest to the mean (which it should be) then this bodes well, I think.

T264+:

Like last night, a plethora of options, cluster 2 being the most obvious continuity cluster, but really the model is saying ‘here be dragons’!

264..looks a bit dodgy mike..we lose a lot of them heights around Greenland..192-240 looks good..perhaps a hint of pressure lagging over Europe though..otherwise decent!

[ScottSnow]

Have people not learnt their lesson from yesterday ? 

Yesterday the GFS had a wobble but then had a couple of great runs in the 18z and 0z.

ECMWF has thrown out a run that could be better this morning.

The direction of travel is still the same. We are heading in the right direction. We are still over a week away from when the cold weather is forecast. There is going to be ups and downs.

I’m not going to worry. If we see some cross model agreement of what the ECMWF is showing then fair enough but at the moment, in my opinion, we are still on course for where we want to go.

[smith25]

If I remember rightly, going by years of watching, this model confusion is a good sign that a decent cold spell is coming.  I suspect the ECM will start moving towards the cold spell after the weekend.  I'd only be concerned if the ukmo stops showing this for a few runs.  In the end we'll probably end up with a halfway house like usual.

[Marting]

ECM ensembles showing the operational as almost a warm outlier for my location at the end, cooler earlier on 

Edited January 6 by Marting

[sheikhy]

If ecm could be wrong at just 48 hours is there any point in taking the rest of the run seriously!!!!!all other models have upgraded the easterly early on yet ecm is still furthest south!!!!

[Mike Poole]

10 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

264..looks a bit dodgy mike..we lose a lot of them heights around Greenland..192-240 looks good..perhaps a hint of pressure lagging over Europe though..otherwise decent!

Just edited my post re the earlier timeframe.  It seems to me that there is uncertainty to be resolved in the T120-T168 timeframe, which massively affects the extent to which the Greenland high can become established.  We need that resolved before things can move forward.

A couple of days ago, the models seemed to be in agreement out to day 10 or beyond, and often there was just one cluster out to T168 (in this case suggesting (misplaced) confidence) - now, there is much more uncertainty early on.  Impossible to make a call about whether it ends well or badly, that earlier uncertainty just needs resolving before we can tell.

Edited January 6 by Mike Poole

[Matt Jones]

The problem here is we are losing the key ingredients for a decent cold spell, as others have mentioned Greenland heights show at longer range but often diminish as we get closer. I just think we are in for a colder spell of weather, as in more like January should be compared to what we've had in recent weeks then back to something milder.

[sebastiaan1973]

Sorry to say, on the long term, 50% of the ENS shows a northwest, west or southwest wind. [De Bilt]

[sebastiaan1973]

9 minutes ago, Matt Jones said:

The problem here is we are losing the key ingredients for a decent cold spell, as others have mentioned Greenland heights show at longer range but often diminish as we get closer. I just think we are in for a colder spell of weather, as in more like January should be compared to what we've had in recent weeks then back to something milder.

At De Bilt this is perhaps the picture. Day 10-15 shows a cluster with warmer weather and a (small) rise in average temperature. 

[DavidS]

The ECM isn’t an outlier within its ensembles and tracks the mean out to around the 12th/13th Jan, however at that point it does start to drag its heels. Plenty of scatter on the ensembles from day 8 with a good cluster, including the control keeping things cold. Much still to be resolved.

[Ali1977]

What seems obvious to me is that the chance of more severe snow fall is growing for next weekend , as the battle commences

[sebastiaan1973]

Sorry part 2. We see a westcirculation.  

This is EC at day 15. Is this a reflection of MJO phase 3 or stratosphere? Or both? 

Edited January 6 by sebastiaan1973

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Sorry part 2. We see a westcirculation.  

This is EC at day 15. Is this a reflection of MJO phase 3 or stratosphere? Or both? 

I suspect more a reflection of the vast amount of spread. Just what goes on beyond day 10 appears to be getting a lot more mixed in the ensembles. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Cold the models are showing over Scandinavia is certainly there...oslo having a high of -20 today!

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Sorry part 2. We see a westcirculation.  

This is EC at day 15. Is this a reflection of MJO phase 3 or stratosphere? Or both? 

Not quite what the METO are quoting or seeing with their models - with more warming in the strat the weakening of FI charts may not be modelled yet - or something like that!! I’m Just wishful thinking obviously 

[sheikhy]

Just now, sebastiaan1973 said:

Sorry part 2 

This is EC at day 15. Is this a reflection of MJO phase 3 or stratosphere? Or both? 

Ouch!!!ecm better backtrack this evening because looks like the organisation of the pv is imminent after week 2!!!how much cold and snow can we conjure up before that if any!!!