Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[winterof79]

Snow grains drifting in on an Easterly feed and Dew points becoming ever more conducive.

[johnholmes]

13 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Have you got time to go into more detail?

see my post below!

[loafer]

4 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

ICON shows mostly light snow pushing south west through the Thames Estuary during Monday, this becomes more widespread during Monday night as the winds veer more easterly and the atmosphere is a little more unstable, and it is this period where a dusting could anywhere south of the Wash (Very little will settle during the day unless the precipitation is heavier). 

Sea temperature is 9.1 deg, close to the Jan high of 9.5, and well above the Jan average of 7.8, which could lead to a lot of convection for streamers.

[johnholmes]

Saturday 6 January re 500 charts etc

The ECMWF looks to show deeper cold air advecting south of the 500 and surface ridging  moving to around Iceland area. Date shown is 16 Jan, a week Tuesday! How long the upper ridge might last here is not clear as a largish upper trough is shown on the far nw of the EC chart.

The NOAA 500 charts continue out to 8-14 with the upper ridge shown se-nw Greenland, the actual contour centre is about 55N 20W with the +ve height now shown as +390 DM over se Greenland on the 6-10 day chart. Similar on the 8-14, +ve is 270 DM. Upstream of this the pattern looks conducive to this probably extending some way beyond the 14 day period?

This pattern has been consistently shown since about Xmas Day, obviously a developing set of charts but consistent in its direction and development. Just how long this pattern will last, how cold the UK will get, let alone will it snow is for the synoptic charts to gradually converge on what is likely.

The UK surface and upper air only extend to the 12 th so obviously little of the above is on their public available charts.

Given the consistency of the NOAA charts, now being picked up by ECMWF I would be surprised if deep cold was not being forecast by UK Met before next weekend! Egg on face possible!

Usual charts below

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

UK Met Office Fax Charts - UKMOMSLP Analysis and Prognosis

WWW.WEATHERCHARTS.ORG

---

UK Met Office . . Europe and North Atlantic MSLP analysis and prognosis charts

 

 

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

Saturday 6 January re 500 charts etc

The ECMWF looks to show deeper cold air advecting south of the 500 and surface ridging  moving to around Iceland area. Date shown is 16 Jan, a week Tuesday! How long the upper ridge might last here is not clear as a largish upper trough is shown on the far nw of the EC chart.

The NOAA 500 charts continue out to 8-14 with the upper ridge shown se-nw Greenland, the actual contour centre is about 55N 20W with the +ve height now shown as +390 DM over se Greenland on the 6-10 day chart. Similar on the 8-14, +ve is 270 DM. Upstream of this the pattern looks conducive to this probably extending some way beyond the 14 day period?

This pattern has been consistently shown since about Xmas Day, obviously a developing set of charts but consistent in its direction and development. Just how long this pattern will last, how cold the UK will get, let alone will it snow is for the synoptic charts to gradually converge on what is likely.

The UK surface and upper air only extend to the 12 th so obviously little of the above is on their public available charts.

Given the consistency of the NOAA charts, now being picked up by ECMWF I would be surprised if deep cold was not being forecast by UK Met before next weekend! Egg on face possible!

Usual charts below

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

UK Met Office Fax Charts - UKMOMSLP Analysis and Prognosis

WWW.WEATHERCHARTS.ORG

---

UK Met Office . . Europe and North Atlantic MSLP analysis and prognosis charts

 

 

Thank you John murmurings of a slight ramp detected

[Man With Beard]

Just now, johnholmes said:

Saturday 6 January re 500 charts etc

The ECMWF looks to show deeper cold air advecting south of the 500 and surface ridging  moving to around Iceland area. Date shown is 16 Jan, a week Tuesday! How long the upper ridge might last here is not clear as a largish upper trough is shown on the far nw of the EC chart.

The NOAA 500 charts continue out to 8-14 with the upper ridge shown se-nw Greenland, the actual contour centre is about 55N 20W with the +ve height now shown as +390 DM over se Greenland on the 6-10 day chart. Similar on the 8-14, +ve is 270 DM. Upstream of this the pattern looks conducive to this probably extending some way beyond the 14 day period?

This pattern has been consistently shown since about Xmas Day, obviously a developing set of charts but consistent in its direction and development. Just how long this pattern will last, how cold the UK will get, let alone will it snow is for the synoptic charts to gradually converge on what is likely.

The UK surface and upper air only extend to the 12 th so obviously little of the above is on their public available charts.

Given the consistency of the NOAA charts, now being picked up by ECMWF I would be surprised if deep cold was not being forecast by UK Met before next weekend! Egg on face possible!

Usual charts below

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

UK Met Office Fax Charts - UKMOMSLP Analysis and Prognosis

WWW.WEATHERCHARTS.ORG

---

UK Met Office . . Europe and North Atlantic MSLP analysis and prognosis charts

 

 

Wow, John Holmes going for deep cold, that is a collectors item! Have to agree about the NOAA, they are really bullish about the block to the NW.

Thanks for your insightful analysis John, we all appreciate it

 

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,ECM showing a mostly cold dry period untill middle of next week with a small pick up of single figure temperatures in the second half before another possible Arctic blast with some snow possible from low pressure to our north east,all still up for change at that time range but still lots going on weather wise with the polar vortex adding to exciting times.

[booferking]

2 hours ago, frosty ground said:

That doesn’t really make any sense, what energy is being sent south east?

the lack of heights over the Atlantic and Greenland causes the issue the higher heights to the south east have been on many a run these last few days.

 

If you discount the wedge that’s going to form and keep the UK cold 

Sorry if you don't like what i say just hit the ignore button i just say what i see I'm taking the runs as face value and that's what i see hopefully ecm is sniffing up the wrong agenda and falls in line with gfs & gem.

[warrenb]

John doesn't do ramps. He has a subtle increase in possibility

Edited January 6 by warrenb

[smith25]

1 minute ago, warrenb said:

John doesn't do ramps. He has a subtle increase in possibility

Actually I can remember one ramp going back a few years ago!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

45 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Still going up..

 

Technicality’s or not, that’s a SSW in my book

 

BFTP

[TEITS]

I have mixed feelings about the output today. 

After looking at the ECM and then other output including the ensembles I am somewhat confused. Partly because despite what the ensembles say if the ECM operational strays away from the ensemble mean on successive runs then my concern is the ensembles will eventually follow the operational.

Having said this when it comes the a Greenland high pressure and the ECM then all sorts of past memories come flooding back. During 2009 & 2010 the ECM caused alot of drama by just backtracking from the projected cold spell for about 48hrs. When the cold spell returned I remember the surprised comments by a member called Ian Brown. The Greenland high caused similar drama in Dec 2010. Again the same member called Ian Brown accused me and Nick Sussex of being SE biased. This was because the ECM was sending the cold arctic blast into the Atlantic Ocean rather than the UK. Slowly the ECM backtracked to moving everything E. Always makes me laugh as Nick S doesn't even live in the UK anymore!

So my point is basically don't worry just yet but hope the ECM comes back on board. When it did during 2009, 2010 it actually massively upgraded the cold spell.

[Anthony Burden]

7 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Saturday 6 January re 500 charts etc

The ECMWF looks to show deeper cold air advecting south of the 500 and surface ridging  moving to around Iceland area. Date shown is 16 Jan, a week Tuesday! How long the upper ridge might last here is not clear as a largish upper trough is shown on the far nw of the EC chart.

The NOAA 500 charts continue out to 8-14 with the upper ridge shown se-nw Greenland, the actual contour centre is about 55N 20W with the +ve height now shown as +390 DM over se Greenland on the 6-10 day chart. Similar on the 8-14, +ve is 270 DM. Upstream of this the pattern looks conducive to this probably extending some way beyond the 14 day period?

This pattern has been consistently shown since about Xmas Day, obviously a developing set of charts but consistent in its direction and development. Just how long this pattern will last, how cold the UK will get, let alone will it snow is for the synoptic charts to gradually converge on what is likely.

The UK surface and upper air only extend to the 12 th so obviously little of the above is on their public available charts.

Given the consistency of the NOAA charts, now being picked up by ECMWF I would be surprised if deep cold was not being forecast by UK Met before next weekend! Egg on face possible!

Usual charts below

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

UK Met Office Fax Charts - UKMOMSLP Analysis and Prognosis

WWW.WEATHERCHARTS.ORG

---

UK Met Office . . Europe and North Atlantic MSLP analysis and prognosis charts

 

 

Hi John,big call to make but certainly finally balanced very interesting times.

[Scott Ingham]

I would urge all to follow the 500 charts John Holmes uses in this scenario. 
 

Models struggle in split flow scenarios, especially when it involves heights into Greenland. The extra resolution in this regard can cause more problems than you’d expect in the 144-192 range. You can see this on the ECM chart. If it gets low heights wrong around Greeenland the extra resolution just amplifies this and you end up with a 240 chart wildly different to other models. 
 

ensembles and 500 charts are there for a reason. As they smooth out errors and get the bigger picture correct.

 

People need to stop getting too low after every op run and too high after every op run. I know it’s hard as it’s a passion but it will help you improve your ability to read charts if you take a step back and take emotion out of the equation

The 15th (my day the hell as this come from hahah) is still on track.

[Rob 79812010]

Looks to me like we're already locked into an extended cold spell. I've seen Greenland highs before that dont produce severe cold, but are still quite cold. Presume it wouldn't take much to suddenly become a lot colder. Can anyone throw light on this??

[fromey]

4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Technicality’s or not, that’s a SSW in my book

 

BFTP

I ask Marco yesterday about this being a major warming and he replied 

[WINTRY WALES]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

I would urge all to follow the 500 charts John Holmes uses in this scenario. 
 

Models struggle in split flow scenarios, especially when it involves heights into Greenland. The extra resolution in this regard can cause more problems than you’d expect in the 144-192 range. You can see this on the ECM chart. If it gets low heights wrong around Greeenland the extra resolution just amplifies this and you end up with a 240 chart wildly different to other models. 
 

ensembles and 500 charts are there for a reason. As they smooth out errors and get the bigger picture correct.

 

People need to stop getting too low after every op run and too high after every op run. I know it’s hard as it’s a passion but it will help you improve your ability to read charts if you take a step back and take emotion out of the equation

The 15th (my day the hell as this come from hahah) is still on track.

What is exactly expected to happen on the 15th????? Like it’s turning cold now…getting colder…:so what is on track for the 15th exactly??? Cheers

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

What is exactly expected to happen on the 15th????? Like it’s turning cold now…getting colder…:so what is on track for the 15th exactly??? Cheers

It’s the start of a deep cold spell. How long? Not known yet but it will be the first real spell of this winter and one with building blocks in place with the potential to produce a fair amount of snow and ice days.

btw this was a date I threw out there nearly 3 weeks ago due to background signals that many have already gone through numerous times over this period. 
 

It was a best guess based on them with lag for impacts to hit nothing more but it’s a running joke as the models began to converge on this exact date and the chances of getting something like this correct 3 weeks out is low!

Edited January 6 by Scott Ingham

[Catacol]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

It’s the start of a deep cold spell. How long? Not known yet but it will be the first real spell of this winter and one with building blocks in place with the potential to produce a fair amount of snow and ice days.

All roads continue to lead in that direction, though the most recent ECM run was quite bizarre in its evolution. 

GFS

ECM

GEM

And if the UKMO went that far out I think we have a decent idea what it would be showing!

[ICE COLD]

No problem with the colder uppers on the gfs 6z early doors 

[Drifter]

1 minute ago, Catacol said:

All roads continue to lead in that direction, though the most recent ECM run was quite bizarre in its evolution. 

GFS

ECM

GEM

And if the UKMO went that far out I think we have a decent idea what it would be showing!

The trouble with the ECM is that northerly looks like it’s on borrowed time and would turn milder soon after. 

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Drifter said:

The trouble with the ECM is that northerly looks like it’s on borrowed time and would turn milder soon after. 

If it’s correct. I really don’t think it is! It’s one run from today other models have a good evolution it’s ensembles are better the control is better the mean is better the ecmwf 500 height charts are better so no need really to hyperbole over it just now in my humble opinion

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, Drifter said:

The trouble with the ECM is that northerly looks like it’s on borrowed time and would turn milder soon after. 

Maybe the trouble with the ecm is how it got there.

[Man With Beard]

It kind of feels wrong to post this on a day John Holmes of all people is bigging up the cold, but it must be mentioned that a really firm Greenland block signal doesn't last more than a few days on the ECM clusters - doesn't necessarily mean the end of cold and snow as the overall pattern remains pretty messed up beyond 17th January, but chances of a prolonged cold spell would be a bit more doubtful. Still, of course these are D11-D15 charts so much could change particularly in the absence of agreement.

[Midlands Ice Age]

I am wondering if the ECM is picking up the first signs of trop changes due to the current ongoing rapid warming in the strat.

I know that it is only 13 days  from when it first started (3 days ago), but the strat is now already in a severely weakened state and maybe it is able to move along more quickly.

I would not expect the GFS to pick it up yet (from my research) , and the MO does  not go out far enough.

Is the EC picking up the westerly wind down burst already?

Perhaps its all balls in the air time?

MIA

 

Edited January 6 by Midlands Ice Age