Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, ITSY said:

People need their heads testing if they think this is a bad run. It's basically identical to the former. The only challenge that both runs show is the lack of low heights over Europe. Ideally we want the low over the Azores to move westward a bit more quickly. But come on team, this is what we dream of. Isn't it?!

Yes, it is fine despite the miss into Greenland, which shows a bit of margin for error.  The low over the Azores should elongate and slide SE, thereby flattening the higher heights in Spain?

[Day 10]

Still a very cold push from the north.

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

How was the gfs early on with the easterly?!!about same?!!!

Pretty much the same as 06z, tiny differences.

[Nick F]

Just now, TSNWK said:

I'm reading this as a Norwegian shortwave issue?

Well, it's low pressure in general over Norway pulling down the deep cold air, not really a shortwave issue, though disturbances in the northerly flow could bring a few surprises. Too far away to discuss that though, lets get the deep cold to arrive first!

[Spah1]

Sledge! 

 

[TSNWK]

Just now, Nick F said:

Well, it's low pressure in general over Norway pulling down the deep cold air, not really a shortwave issue, though disturbances in the northerly flow could bring a few surprises. Too far away to discuss that though, lets get the deep cold to arrive first!

Thanks.. looks good to my eye.  I think troll word misunderstanding my side   

[Man With Beard]

GFS12Z - the cold is still going to win at around D9 but a closer call - with the low stalling west, any increase of heights from the south may have kept the cold from pushing too far south - however, it doesn't happen and a front is allowed to hold across France keeping mild tucked far away.

[That ECM]

Just now, Nick F said:

Well, it's low pressure in general over Norway pulling down the deep cold air, not really a shortwave issue, though disturbances in the northerly flow could bring a few surprises. Too far away to discuss that though, lets get the deep cold to arrive first!

Going to be a lot of ifs,  could’s and maybe’s when you are posting a forecast. Good luck, glad I haven’t got to do one on micro level.

[Ice Day]

The Gem at day 10 is not quite as cold over the UK as it first looks.  To be honest, though, these small details are days away from being nailed, I'm just marveling at the NH profile! 

 

[Mike Poole]

UKMO storming at T168:

On a par with the ICON.

[Spah1]

UKMO 168hrs

Different to ECM over Greenland. 
 

Who’s right? 

[Ali1977]

Booooom what a great UKMO at 168, such a robust high

[Ice Day]

UKMO 168 - Two words, 'yes please'!!!

[iowpompeylee]

I will be interested to see the UKMO fax chart later to see any disturbances in the next couple of days. I find them very accurate 

[Mark wheeler]

UKMO 168 , Looks fine and Dandy

wow I was late with that one it seems . Its ok I will be the parrot on this occasion.

Edited January 6 by Mark wheeler

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

UKMO storming at T168:

On a par with the ICON.

Would be great if that low near the Azores could move south east, the gem did it eventually but it took its sweet time

[AO-]

My idea is that this is a better run than the 06. The southerly jet with the shortwave pushing west will pull the cold air South. This did not happen at the gfs06

Edited January 6 by AO-

[Nick F]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Going to be a lot of ifs,  could’s and maybe’s when you are posting a forecast. Good luck, glad I haven’t got to do one on micro level.

The ridge butting in across Iberia in response to low over Azores bit of a concern - really need to see lows track east from the Azores into western Med, otherwise the deep cold coming south next weekend could be stalled across the north or worse. But still so much to resolve over the Atlantic this far out, so alarm bells not ringing yet.

[terrier]

7 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Sledge! 

 

Unfortunately to me it looks raw damp and drizzly more than white.

[MJB]

Great NH profile from GEM

[AO-]

2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

The ridge butting in across Iberia in response to low over Azores bit of a concern - really need to see lows track east from the Azores into western Med, otherwise the deep cold coming south next weekend could be stalled across the north or worse. But still so much to resolve over the Atlantic this far out, so alarm bells not ringing yet.

Not really. There is not enough energy. The only but is that again the position of the Greenland block is too far west.  The shortwaves wol Create a Westerly flow eventually.

[Harsh Climate]

GFS 270h

Lovely looking chart.

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, terrier said:

Unfortunately to me it looks raw damp and drizzly more than white.

T240 gem is miles out. I’d be fairly sure ukmo wouldn’t be as gem at T240 but we will never know.

[TSNWK]

This has to be widespread  -10 / -15 lows over snow coverage and -20 in prime spots..,

slack -8 air with a gentle northley feed.

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

This has to be widespread  -10 / -15 lows over snow coverage and -20 in prime spots..,

slack -8 air with a gentle northley feed.

Look at that wedge absolutely stunning!